Republican Ashley Hinson holds a narrow edge in Iowa’s Senate race, with a new Quantus Insights poll showing an opportunity to strengthen her position by bringing more GOP voters into her corner.
Hinson draws 47.1% support to Democrat Josh Turek’s 45.8% in the survey, conducted Sept. 28-29. Libertarian Thomas Laehn receives 1.7%, while 5.4% remain undecided.
The Republican has room to grow within her own party. Hinson wins 85% of self-identified Republicans, while Turek has already secured 91% of Democrats. That puts Hinson in an encouraging position if she can close that gap in party support during the campaign’s final five weeks.
She finishes ahead in all three ballot questions tested, although each advantage remains within sampling uncertainty and none establishes a statistically clear leader.
Turek draws more crossover support, winning 8% of Republicans compared with Hinson’s 5% among Democrats. Winning back some of those GOP voters could make a difference in a contest separated by just 1.3 percentage points on the full ballot.
The poll reveals sharply different sources of support for the two candidates.
Hinson commands a 58%-36% lead among rural voters and wins men 52% to 40% in the poll. Turek counters with a 58%-35% advantage among urban voters and a 52%-42% lead among women.
Suburban voters favor the Democrat 48% to 42%, while voters in towns are more closely divided, backing Turek 48% to 45%.
Independent voters are a major source of Turek’s strength. They favor him 53% to 36%, with 9% undecided, giving Hinson another group to pursue before Election Day.
Hinson’s statewide edge widens slightly when the survey includes initially undecided voters who lean toward a candidate. With those preferences included, she leads Turek 48.5% to 46.6%.
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A separate matchup naming only the two major-party candidates puts Hinson at 48.9% and Turek at 46.7%. Neither reaches 50% in any of the three scenarios.
The candidates also enter the closing stretch with mixed reviews from voters.
Hinson is viewed favorably by 42.9% and unfavorably by 45.3%. Turek’s ratings are almost evenly split, with 38.9% favorable and 39% unfavorable.
The Democrat remains less familiar to a larger slice of the electorate. About 22% have no opinion of Turek or have never heard of him, compared with roughly 12% for Hinson. That leaves both campaigns an opening to shape perceptions of him before voters make their final decisions.
Turek’s geographic strength extends to Iowa’s two largest media markets. He leads 49% to 45% in Des Moines-Ames and 50% to 42% in Cedar Rapids-Waterloo.
Hinson performs better in several smaller markets, although those results draw on smaller samples and should be interpreted cautiously.
Quantus Insights completed 738 interviews through text-message invitations to mobile phones. The ballot analysis excluded 24 respondents who said they would not vote, leaving 714 voters. Results were weighted to match Iowa likely-electorate benchmarks.
The full study has a reported margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Results for individual voter groups carry greater uncertainty.
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