In 2024, Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) defeated Democrat Chuck Hubbard by 75,914 votes. Two years later, Hubbard leads her by just 99.
The unofficial results remain subject to outstanding ballots and a possible recount. Foxx may yet prevail, but a nearly 19-point Republican victory has become a virtual tie. That reversal deserves serious examination, and I believe much of the responsibility lies with President Donald Trump.
I worked for Foxx and served in Trump’s first administration. I know her work ethic, the value of her relationships in Congress, and her commitment to North Carolina. Her record deserves respect, and under ordinary political circumstances, an incumbent with her experience and electoral history would not be fighting for survival in such a favorable district.
DEMOCRATS RAN RADICALS AND STILL WON. DON’T BLAME THE CANDIDATES — TRUMP OWNS THIS BLOODBATH
Yet the county results reveal just how dramatically Republican support eroded.
Hubbard built a nearly 48,000-vote advantage in Guilford County’s portion of the district, while Watauga added another 6,500. Foxx carried the remaining eight counties, but their Republican margins had narrowed considerably.
In Caldwell, her advantage fell from roughly 23,000 votes in 2024 to 9,300. Surry dropped from approximately 20,000 to 8,400. A Libertarian candidate also received more than 7,500 votes, although there is no basis to assume those votes otherwise would have gone to Foxx.
The districtwide figures are even more revealing. Compared with 2024, Foxx received approximately 99,000 fewer votes, while Hubbard’s total declined by only about 23,000. Presidential and midterm turnout differ, but that disparity helps explain how Republicans lost almost their entire advantage in a district they had comfortably controlled.
The question is why, and that brings us to Trump.
Voters returned him to the White House expecting relief from high prices, an end to costly foreign entanglements and a government that would finally put their interests first. Instead, he launched an unpopular war with Iran, offered shifting explanations of its objectives, and imposed tariffs that raised costs for families.
Gas prices soared as grocery bills squeezed families already struggling to make ends meet. For people who voted to escape the economic frustrations of the Biden years, the promised golden age never materialized.
The warning signs were unmistakable. An October AP-NORC survey found that 65% of people blamed Trump’s policies for higher prices, while 69% believed the Iran war was not worth fighting. Even among Republicans, 52% said his handling of the cost of living had been worse than expected.
These weren’t simply complaints from Democrats. Even Republican voters were saying Trump had fallen short of their expectations.
Yet rather than acknowledge those failures and change direction, Trump continued defending his decisions while too many Republican leaders chose to protect his ego rather than confront him with the truth.
That is where national Republican leadership failed.
Congressional Republicans had every opportunity to question the costs of the Iran war, demand clearer objectives, and push for economic policies that offered meaningful relief. None of that required abandoning their conservative principles or opposing Trump simply for the sake of opposition.
Instead, too many treated disagreement as disloyalty, rewarding the yes-men who reassured the president rather than those willing to challenge his judgment.
Republican candidates were then left defending a national record they could neither control nor repair on their own.
Foxx’s race illustrates the consequences. Her experience and constituent relationships remained substantial, but they could not fully overcome the political burden created by an unpopular national agenda. That does not diminish her service or establish what motivated every voter, but it helps explain why a district Republicans once considered secure became fiercely competitive.
And the stakes extend well beyond one congressional seat.
THANK YOU, HALEY STEVENS, FOR REFUSING TO STAY SILENT
In North Carolina, Democrats are projected to regain control of the state House for the first time since 2010, putting 16 years of Republican legislative leadership at an end. Nationally, five candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America won congressional seats, strengthening a communist movement that openly advocates replacing capitalism with democratic socialism and expanding collective ownership of major industries.
Foxx may yet return to Congress, but the near disappearance of her electoral advantage demands accountability. If Republican lawmakers want someone to blame, they need to look toward the White House and the leaders who enabled Trump’s worst decisions. Unless they find the backbone to demand a change of course, Republicans could lose far more in 2028 than a handful of congressional seats.
Colton Overcash is the founder of Vertex Strategies, a Charlotte-based government relations and strategic advisory firm with a presence in Washington, DC. He previously held two presidential appointments at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security during the Trump administration. He’s also a former staffer for U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis and U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
