A race that’s increasingly defying the national conensus of a painful Election Day for Republicans is emerging in an unlikely place: the Democratic stronghold of Minnesota.
Republican Michele Tafoya, floated by some in the party as their “best” candidate this cycle, has transformed from someone once largely considered a long-shot contender to a serious threat to Democrats in a state that hasn’t elected a GOP senator since 2002.
Tafoya has narrowed the gap against Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the state’s lieutenant governor, to an average of just 2 points, within the margin of error. And nonpartisan election forecasters have shifted what was once a safe seat to the “lean” Democratic column — one shy of being a “toss up.”
“If I was them, I’d be sweating. I mean, this is supposed to be a safe blue seat,” said a national GOP operative granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics of the race. “She might be the best candidate on the map right now.”
Republicans have been bullish about their chances to flip Minnesota’s open seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) since recruiting Tafoya, much in the same way they’re optimistic about former Sen. John E. Sununu clinching the open New Hampshire seat also held by Democrats.
But as a former sports reporter and broadcaster, Tafoya is a true political outsider with no experience in elected office or baggage to weigh her down. She’s not been shy of distancing herself from President Donald Trump on immigration, the Iran war, and tariffs, while Flanagan has been scrutinized for state fraud and corruption scandals that have rocked Gov. Tim Walz’s (D-MN) administration. Flanagan was also the more progressive and secondary choice for Democratic leaders in Washington, who saw her centrist primary rival, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), as a stronger general election candidate.
“[Tafoya] is not afraid to try and distance herself from the national Republican brand and a president when she needs to,” the GOP operative said.
Trump and Tafoya have not campaigned together. But the president did recently endorse her, a move that was not enthusiastically embraced by the Senate hopeful.
“Most of the things that the president says are a surprise to somebody,” she told reporters.
During the same press conference, she ticked through an array of policy criticisms aimed at Trump and administration officials. Those included deadly immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota that were “handled abysmally,” a “blank check to wage war” in Iran, and her unicorn status as a “pro-choice Republican.” She’s also disagreed with the president on certain tariffs and a widely panned Russian diesel deal.
“I have taken a lot of heat from my party over this,” Tafoya said of her abortion views. “I wonder if there’s any single issue that Peggy Flanagan has taken that’s not in lockstep with the extreme left of her party?”
Michele Tafoya, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, arrives to vote on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)
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Michele Tafoya, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, arrives to vote on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)
Trump lost Minnesota in 2024 by just over 4 points, a relatively small margin that is also buoying Republican hopes. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the Senate, and losing the North Star State would present a potential insurmountable setback in that endeavor.
In a recent debate, Flanagan distanced herself from the Walz administration’s handling of fraud while conceding it was mismanaged. But a pillar of her campaign pitch mirrors other Democrats across the country in tying the Republican nominee to an unpopular president. Flanagan highlighted Trump’s endorsement and what she described as a capitulation to voters by Tafoya in the final weeks before Election Day.
COOK POLITICAL REPORT SHIFTS MINNESOTA SENATE RACE TOWARD GOP WHILE SOUTH CAROLINA RACE MOVES LEFT
“Donald Trump doesn’t just endorse anybody. In fact, he endorses against people in his own party if they dare to take him on,” Flanagan said. “Michele Tafoya passed his litmus test with flying colors. … Give me a break. Donald Trump has told people himself, ‘Act as if I am on the ballot.’”
Tafoya responded: “You and I are on the ballot, Peggy. You and I.”
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
