Michigan’s Senate race may hinge on a decision black voters in Detroit make in the final days: Turn out for Abdul el Sayed, stay home, or cross over to Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI).
In the August primary, 108,722 Detroiters cast ballots, only about 21% of registered voters. That is citywide turnout, not a measure of black participation alone. But the result shows the work el Sayed faces.
The city’s returns show Haley Stevens took 62% of Detroit’s Democratic Senate vote to el Sayed’s 34%. His statewide victory did not erase that rejection.
Abdul el Sayed won the statewide primary by just 13,792 votes out of more than 1.5 million cast, but he still has to win over voters who backed someone else. Among them is Stevens’s fiancé, civil rights attorney Jacob Turkish, who said he intends to vote for Republican Mike Rogers after becoming convinced that el Sayed is an antisemite.
As WLNS reported during the primary, the statewide result was far closer than polls suggested. An Emerson poll, cited by Newsweek, had Stevens leading among black primary voters 63% to 33%. A primary preference, however, is not a November defection.
A collage of Abdul el Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers. (AP)
" data-large-file="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...10584698-e1792611055639.jpg?1792678917&w=1024" src="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...792611055639.jpg?1792678917&w=1024&1792678917" alt="El Sayed and Rogers." class="wp-image-4774690" srcset="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...ge-tllkmshiq-1792610584698-e1792611055639.jpg 1024w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...92610584698-e1792611055639.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...92610584698-e1792611055639.jpg?resize=768,512 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px">
A collage of Abdul el Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers. (AP Photos)
Across the city line, el Sayed won about 78% in Dearborn, underscoring how differently the neighboring communities voted in the Democratic primary. Neither party can assume those divisions will disappear Tuesday.
El Sayed acknowledged tensions around some Arab-owned businesses in black neighborhoods, telling BridgeDetroit that encounters could involve “interacting behind bulletproof glass.” He called those conditions “awful” and “unacceptable” and urged conversation.
Warrendale resident Barb Matney offered BridgeDetroit a different view, telling the outlet, “Sometimes I think the media blows things up a little bit just for a story.” Councilwoman Gabriela Santiago-Romero told the same publication there was “very real hate and racist rhetoric against Abdul for being Muslim.”
The Detroit News reported lingering resentment over el Sayed’s involvement in the 2024 “uncommitted” protest against Joe Biden. Black people “have a right to be pissed off about the uncommitted stuff,” state Democratic black Caucus chairman Keith Williams told the newspaper. “There’s going to need to be some healing, big time.”
On NewsNation, Chris Cuomo rejected assumptions that black voters would automatically support el Sayed because of shared racial identity. His exchange with Rogers supporter Anton Daniels illustrated the point.
“Do you believe people may be wrong if they assume that all black voters will vote for el Sayed because he’s considered another brown guy?” Cuomo asked.
“I think that they are,” Daniels replied, saying black voters were realizing that “voting Democrat does not necessarily mean that it aligns with your values.”
Daniels previously described himself as a conservative Republican in an interview with Stephen A. Smith. His answer illustrates a choice, not its prevalence. Black voters are individuals, not a party’s property.
Beyond Detroit, Rogers’s campaign bus carried Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA) through a day of manufacturing, veterans, campus, and farm stops on Tuesday. Stops included Unified Business Technologies in Troy, a veterans roundtable at Legion Post 377 in Clarkston, a JD Vance rally at CHI Aviation in Howell, a student roundtable at Adrian College, and Alexander Family Farm.
McCormick sees an opening. The Pennsylvania senator said the Michigan race reminds him of his own.
“We’re seven days out, and Mike Rogers has the momentum,” McCormick said. “It feels a lot like my own campaign a week out, except the polls are even tighter and his opponent is even crazier. Mike’s closing argument is simple: the choice is between his record of delivering for Michigan and a socialist vision to remake America from a guy who can’t even denounce the Muslim Brotherhood.”
“Mike’s door-knocking operation has been exceptional as well,” McCormick added. “From everything I’ve seen in Michigan, he’s going to win.”
The black vote is the hard part for Rogers. The Detroit News/WDIV poll, conducted Oct. 20–23, put el Sayed ahead among likely black voters 88% to 4%. NBC News cited other polls showing different margins. Those surveys are not interchangeable, and support is not turnout.
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Rogers does not have to win Detroit to benefit from a smaller Democratic margin there. Staying home and crossing over would have different effects, but either could make el Sayed’s statewide task harder.
All eyes are on Detroit because how many black voters turn out, and whom they choose, could decide who wins Michigan.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
