Nine months ago, Israel became the first government in the world to recognize the breakaway republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state. It was a historic event, prompting speculation that President Donald Trump might follow suit by announcing U.S. recognition of Somaliland as well, especially given that high-profile figures in Washington, such as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), have long been on record supporting such a change in policy.
No such recognition ever came from the Trump administration. Instead, momentum toward Somaliland’s inclusion in the international community has stalled over the past year. Refusing to accept defeat, Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi (better known by the sobriquet “Irro”), traveled to Washington this month to reinvigorate the case for Somaliland’s sovereign statehood. His itinerary included events at leading think tanks such as the Hudson Institute and Council on Foreign Relations — a sign, perhaps, that expert audiences in the United States take the idea of recognition seriously.
Trump could do far worse than to heed Irro’s pleas for recognition. Contrary to what critics might claim, recognizing the independence of Somaliland would help stabilize the Horn of Africa, secure some of the world’s most vital maritime trade routes, dampen extremism, and promote economic development.
Somaliland is a country of around 6 million people, adjacent to Djibouti and across the Gulf of Aden from the southern tip of Yemen. From its main port of Berbera, ships can access the Bab al Mandab, the narrow waterway that separates the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa, in just a few hours. Not unreasonably, it is this strategic location that tends to pique the interest of U.S. decision makers, especially given recent moves by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen to seize control of the Bab al Mandab Strait.
Between 1960 and 1991, the territory of Somaliland formed part of Somalia. In the late 1980s, however, the Somali dictator Siad Barre waged a brutal genocide against the Isaaq people — the dominant tribe of Somaliland — in the final throes of his totalitarian regime. Somalilanders fought back and freed themselves from the central government in Mogadishu, establishing a stable political system of their own that today stands in stark contrast to the failed state that nominally encompasses the remainder of Somalia.
Under international law, Somaliland meets all the criteria for statehood: a permanent population, defined territory, a singular and stable government, and the capacity to engage with foreign governments. But it has been denied diplomatic recognition by the international community ever since declaring its independence in 1991. The main reason is that Somaliland’s neighbors in Africa are wary of accepting new states into the fold for fear of emboldening separatist movements elsewhere on the continent.
This is cold realpolitik: African leaders and their supporters abroad would rather maintain the fiction that Somalia never disintegrated than face the reality that Somaliland has been a distinct political entity for 35 years.
But the cordon sanitaire around Somaliland has been crumbling for some time. In 2017, for example, the United Arab Emirates secured rights to build a military base at Berbera. Then, landlocked Ethiopia signed a deal with Somaliland to gain commercial access to the Red Sea. And in December of last year, Israel made history by recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty.
These developments chipped away at the international community’s nonrecognition of Somaliland and drew attention to some of the benefits that might flow from accepting its sovereign statehood as a political reality. The taboo now lifted, the question has effectively shifted from “why recognize Somaliland?” to “why not?”
Especially now that the security situation in the Red Sea is deteriorating, the time is ripe for the U.S. to establish a diplomatic presence in Hargeisa, the Somaliland capital, and encourage others to do the same. This would serve U.S. and allied interests in some obvious ways.
First, Somaliland’s strategic location at the mouth of the Red Sea offers allied states — Israel, to be sure, but also the Emiratis and others — a valuable partner with whom to ensure the freedom of a key waterway and contain the influence of the Houthis, among other bad actors. In this part of the world, political stability and international cooperation are the best answers to terrorism, extremism, and piracy. Somaliland offers stability and the promise of cooperation in spades.
What about the argument that recognizing Somaliland’s independence would trigger a domino effect, inspiring other breakaway regions to push for sovereign statehood? This might be true. It is impossible to say for sure. But what critics almost universally fail to acknowledge is that the alternative — that is, forcing Somaliland to reintegrate with the rest of Somalia — is actually far more likely to produce war and bloodshed. If the goal is to find a political solution to the Somaliland question that will minimize the chance of conflict, then accepting Somaliland’s statehood is clearly the more conservative approach.
Formal statehood for Somaliland would also be good for economic development, allowing the country to join organizations such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, sign bilateral trade and investment deals, and gain access to foreign finance. Private firms, including U.S.-based companies, would feel much more confident investing in Somaliland than is presently the case. All of this would have positive economic effects on neighboring states such as Ethiopia and even Somalia, if leaders in Mogadishu can be convinced to accept reality.
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Finally, recognizing Somaliland might even help to pave the way for a U.S. military drawdown from the Middle East and Horn of Africa. For too long, political dysfunction in Somalia has been a net drag on regional security, creating safe havens for terrorists, extremists, and pirates. Successive U.S. presidents — Trump included — have felt compelled to respond militarily to the various threats that have emerged from this tragic, failed state.
But the endless application of military power (“mowing the grass”) is not a long-term answer. Diplomatic solutions are required. This is why Washington should take Jerusalem’s lead in recognizing Somaliland and pressuring regional actors, including the nominal government in Mogadishu, to follow suit. This would be a modest but meaningful step toward constructing a stable balance in the Greater Middle East, empowering others to contain hostile forces as they emerge, and allowing the U.S. to finally step back from playing the role of security provider in this far-off region.
Peter Harris is an associate professor of political science at Colorado State University, a nonresident fellow with Defense Priorities, and a current research fellow with the Modern War Institute at West Point.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
