Republicans are suddenly within striking distance of flipping one of the bluest governor’s mansions in the country, with a new poll showing Oregon state Sen. Christine Drazan narrowly ahead of Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek.
The Oregon Public Broadcasting survey of 915 likely voters found Drazan leading Kotek 46% to 44%, though the race remains statistically tied because the difference falls within the poll’s 3.24-point margin of error.
Pacific Green candidate Brett Smith drew 3%, while 8% of voters remained undecided.
When pollsters pushed undecided voters to choose which way they were leaning, Drazan’s edge held at 47% to 46%, with Smith at 3% and 5% still undecided.
For Democrats, the bigger warning sign may be the mood of the electorate.
The poll found 58% of Oregon voters believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, while just 29% said it is moving in the right direction. Another 13% said they did not know.
Affordability, high taxes and homelessness were among the biggest concerns cited by voters.
New – Governor poll – Oregon
Christine Drazan 47%
Tina Kotek (Inc) 46%
DHM Research (A) – LV – 9/27 pic.twitter.com/Z55tgw8kDi
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 30, 2026
The numbers have turned what Democrats would normally expect to be a comfortable blue-state contest into a genuine fight heading into the final stretch.
The latest OPB poll is also not an isolated result.
A September poll conducted for the business-backed group Grow Oregon showed Drazan leading Kotek 45% to 43%.
Christine Drazan‘s campaign also released polling in July showing her ahead of Kotek 48% to 44%.
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All three surveys showed Drazan leading, although each advantage fell within the respective poll’s margin of error.
The tightening race has also caught the attention of national election analysts.
The Cook Political Report now rates the Oregon governor’s race “Lean Democrat” after previously placing it in the “Solid Democrat” and later “Likely Democrat” categories.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rates the contest “Likely Democrat,” while polling analyst Nate Silver has shown the race essentially tied.
Oregon’s political history still favors Democrats.
The state has not elected a Republican governor since 1982, making Drazan’s showing particularly notable in a state where Democrats have dominated statewide politics for decades.
Drazan also came close in 2022, when she faced Kotek in another competitive race but ultimately fell short.
This time, however, voters are heading toward Election Day with widespread dissatisfaction over the direction of the state.
With ballots set to be mailed in roughly two weeks, Republicans now have a legitimate opening in a governor’s race that once would have been considered safely Democratic.
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[ H/T Trending Politics ]
