For more than 20 years, after each election, the Pew Research Center has asked voters whether they believed their vote and separately, votes across the country, were counted accurately. Around 90% of voters consistently said they were very or somewhat confident of this, and around 80% gave that response about the votes of their fellow Americans. The news media and political actors on both sides of the aisle are trying to scare voters about what could go wrong on Nov. 3, but most people are reasonably confident that voting will go smoothly in most places.
They are right.
Last week, Pew released a preelection poll asking people their expectations about this year. Eighty-seven percent of registered voters were very or somewhat confident that elections in their community will be run and administered very or somewhat well. The responses were virtually identical for those supporting GOP candidates (90%) and those supporting Democratic ones (91%).
In another question in the poll, 70% said that elections would be run and administered well. On this question, the views of registered voters supporting Democratic (72%) and Republican candidates (73%) were virtually identical. Republicans were more optimistic than in the past.
In the poll, registered voters supporting Democratic and Republican candidates were equally confident that votes cast in person would be tallied as voters intended. Democratic supporters were more optimistic (64%) than GOP supporters (42%) about ballots cast absentee or by mail.
Pew notes that a quarter of people plan to vote or have already voted early or absentee. At this point, that’s more than 28 million people.
Separately, in a new Associated Press/NORC survey, 45% of registered voters said they had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence that their vote would be counted accurately. Another 31% said they had a moderate amount of confidence and 24% only a little or none at all.
Fifty-five percent of Democrats compared to 38% of Republicans were highly confident (a great deal plus quite a bit). Democrats, however, were 20 points less confident about this than they had been in 2022.
In a new CBS News/YouGov poll, a near majority, 47%, said they were very confident their vote would be counted accurately, and 38% were somewhat confident.
Pew’s poll explored several issues that have been in the news of late. Supporters of Democratic and Republican candidates were in agreement on some possible election outcomes and problems. Seventy-four percent of those supporting Republican candidates and 77% of those supporting Democratic candidates felt that after the votes were counted there would be a clear winner. Differing solid majorities are confident we will know the results within a day or two (70% of Democratic supporters to 61% Republican supporters). Large majorities of Democratic and Republican candidate supporters say election workers will handle ballots securely.
There was a 45-percentage-point gap between Democratic and Republican supporters on whether noncitizens trying to vote would be stopped (90% to 45%). Republican supporters (90%) were 18 points more likely than Democratic ones (72%) to say all legally qualified citizens would be able to cast votes.
Most voters tell pollsters it is easy to vote. Solid majorities in Pew’s new poll say that voting is convenient and straightforward. Census data show that few nonvoters are impeded by issues like not having the correct registration or ID. The vast majority of people favor requiring voters to show an ID.
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We’re a closely divided country so it isn’t surprising that some supporters of both parties have doubts about possible problems on or after Election Day. The media fuels these doubts incessantly.
But polls over a very long stretch show people have high confidence that voting will go well. They’ve seen it happen over and over again.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
