Washington Examiner chief political correspondent Byron York said Republicans were unlikely to lose control of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, but the future remains uncertain in the Senate.
“I don’t think Republicans will be able to hold the House,” York said Tuesday on The Hugh Hewitt Show. “For the Senate, I think I’ve been saying that it’s really up in the air. Maybe 50/50.”
York said state polling has become unreliable for determining how the country is shifting. In the 2024 presidential election, former Vice President Kamala Harris was leading President Donald Trump in polls in three swing states, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
During the election, Trump ended up with a full sweep, winning all seven swing states and securing the presidency despite polling that favored Harris. York said similar skepticism could be applied to state polling.
“I think for a lot of the state races, you need to be cautious about a lot of these state polls,” York said. “We know some of them have been spectacularly wrong in this race, and not just in previous races.”
However, there were some indicators that could be more accurate in showing which way voters are leaning ahead of the midterm elections, York said.
“I personally think the biggest single predictors that you have of which way it’s going to go is one, history, because the president’s party almost always loses seats, and then, two, you have the president’s job approval rating,” York said.
DEMOCRATS AHEAD IN TEXAS, ALASKA, AND OHIO WHILE TIED IN KANSAS FOR MIDTERM ELECTIONS: POLL
Trump’s job approval rating in the RealClearPolitics average of polls is at 38.4%, which York said was “not good” for Republicans.
“And that is a measure that’s taken in a million polls by all sorts of pollsters of every stripe,” York said.
Continue reading...
[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
