The most enthusiastic supporters of Vice President JD Vance’s presidential ambitions have a ready response whenever Secretary of State Marco Rubio makes conservatives stand and cheer:
“He’s not running,” they say. “He’s said he won’t run against Vance. He’s going to be Vance’s vice president.”
Perhaps. That would be the conclusion if you took Rubio at his word.
But politics dictate behavior more often than the reverse. Should Vance’s front-runner status erode, Rubio’s occasional bursts of savvily packaged brilliance position him to inherit the Republican Party’s mantle. And he will run then — if he isn’t already. More on that later.
Vance has the 2028 nomination securely in his grip at present. That’s not in dispute. His status as President Donald Trump’s natural successor and his institutional leverage — Vance is the first sitting vice president to serve as finance chairman for the Republican National Committee, giving him unmatched access to donor pipelines — make him the prohibitive favorite.
That doesn’t mean his path to the nomination lacks complication. For Vance, navigating the politics of the Iran war looks as fraught as navigating the Strait of Hormuz. Vance’s core base of support loathes the war, but his boss thinks it’s been a “total and complete victory” — and he needs the blessing of both.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrives ahead of a security agreement signing ceremony with President Donald Trump, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen during the United Nations General Assembly, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026, at the UN headquarters. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
" data-large-file="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AP26266049163235.jpg?w=696" src="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AP26266049163235.jpg?w=696" alt="Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the 2026 United Nations General Assembly." class="wp-image-4749734" srcset="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AP26266049163235.jpg 1024w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AP26266049163235.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AP26266049163235.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AP26266049163235.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AP26266049163235.jpg?resize=696,464 696w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px">
Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrives ahead of a security agreement signing ceremony with President Donald Trump, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen during the U.N. General Assembly, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026, at the U.N. headquarters. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
On economics, it’s much the same. Vance will run as the heir to Trump’s policies, which he helped craft and implement — and which the public hates, including a growing share of Republicans. New polling on Trump’s stewardship of the economy is in Jimmy Carter territory. A new Associated Press survey puts his economic approval at 26%, while a Financial Times poll pegs it at 28%. Voters blame elevated gas prices from the war and Trump’s tariffs for the squeeze on their wallets.
Vance can claim innocence on Iran — though not too explicitly, lest he upset the president — but not on the tariffs. He hasn’t just defended them, he’s promised more. At a rally in Lima, Ohio, last week, Vance pledged that companies making things in America would get “a big fat tax cut,” while those shipping jobs overseas would get “a big fat tariff” — a preview of a future Vance administration agenda.
This was music to the ears of Vance’s protectionist base. But for the vast majority, it sounded like four more years of the same nightmare.
Which brings us back to Rubio. While Vance has stumbled through the minefield, Rubio has glided over it, coasting toward the halfway point of Trump’s second term looking both competent and loyal, and conspicuously unsullied by the administration’s unpopularity. The secretary of state is arguably closer to Trump than anyone else in the administration, yet among the least associated with him in the public imagination. The same Financial Times poll that found Trump’s approval 25 points underwater put Rubio’s at +4. (Vance’s was -10.)
Rubio has pulled off a rare Washington trick: He’s everywhere — on the Sunday shows, at the State Department podium, almost always at the president’s side — yet Rubio is almost never in the political crossfire. And when he does speak, whether at the White House briefing room podium, on foreign diplomatic trips, or on news shows, he rarely appears partisan, despite mounting full-throated defenses of the administration’s policies.
At the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, Rubio pressed Trump’s agenda, urging allies to shoulder more of their own security and rethink their open-border policies. Despite these salvos against Europe, his emphasis on shared civilizational roots earned a standing ovation from a room of leaders wary of Trump.
His performance filling in for Karoline Leavitt in the briefing room in May was more of the same: a vigorous defense of Trump’s policies and record, from the Iran war on down, delivered with such polish that it drew praise from Trump and even some Democrats.
Then last week in Greece, Rubio delivered what has been hailed as “the speech of the year” by the Wall Street Journal and “the best speech a western statesman has given in years” by the Spectator.
Standing on the Pnyx with the Parthenon at his back, Rubio offered an unapologetic defense of the West’s “fierce individuality and relentless ambition,” urging it to recover thumos, “the fire of passion, strength, courage, pride,” and the old Greek “impatience with the notion of impossibility.”
In doing so, he gave Trumpism an intellectual sheen it never had. It felt less like a rebrand than something new.
The staging did the rest. With the sun setting over the Acropolis, Rubio barely needed to speak for the world to get the message: Americans, like the Greeks before us, mean to do big, history-changing things.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks at the Pnyx hill, where ancient Athenians held democratic assemblies, with the ancient Parthenon temple atop the Acropolis in the background, in Athens,Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Pool)
" data-large-file="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26280583070058.jpg?w=696" src="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26280583070058.jpg?w=696" alt="Marco Rubio." class="wp-image-4757692" srcset="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26280583070058.jpg 1024w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26280583070058.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26280583070058.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26280583070058.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26280583070058.jpg?resize=696,464 696w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px">
Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks at the Pnyx hill, where ancient Athenians held democratic assemblies, with the ancient Parthenon temple atop the Acropolis in the background, in Athens, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Pool)
And how did the vice president spend his week? Making gay jokes about James Talarico while stumping for Ken Paxton in Texas and insinuating that Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton is an alcoholic.
“I did promise Amy that I would meet her at a bar later,” he said. “She’s into that sort of thing.”
Last month, Vance took center stage at the bizarre Republican midterm convention that gave a 3-point bounce — to Democrats. Rubio steered clear of it.
That’s not to say Rubio wouldn’t face challenges of his own should he take the plunge. Politicians are inevitably more popular when they aren’t seeking higher office. A few months of campaigning beneath the bright lights of the political media will take the shine off even the most polished statesman. Rubio would have to answer for the same war and tariffs he has so deftly defended from a safe distance.
And there is always a controversy or two for any candidate to explain. The Kimberly Guilfoyle affair is a fresh example. When Rubio landed in Athens for the very trip that produced his triumphant speech, Guilfoyle greeted him with a bear hug as the allegations swirled (though to my eye, Rubio’s body language read like disgust). The clip quickly went viral.
Reports soon emerged that both Rubio and Trump were “extremely pissed off” at Guilfoyle. Days later, she resigned.
Trip wires such as these are why keeping a safe distance has been such a smart play for Rubio: The longer he stays out of the race, the longer he stays above it.
RUBIO’S STUNNING ATHENS SPEECH STOPS WASHINGTON COLD
The RealClearPolitics polling average for the 2028 Republican nomination has Vance at 39% and Rubio, who has never given a single explicit hint that he’s thinking of running, at 24%.
That’s pretty good for someone who “isn’t running” — against someone who obviously is.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
