Guest Post by Michael Snyder
The war in the Middle East has been essentially put on pause until the midterm elections in the United States are over, but once we get to that point Iran is expecting the fighting to go to an entirely new level. So Iran is using this temporary lull in the action to get fully prepared. Ground forces are being trained, defenses are being strengthened, new missiles are being produced, and rallies are being held to bolster public support for the coming conflict. This time around, the Iranians don’t intend to just be on the defensive. They have openly warned that they could conduct ground incursions into neighboring countries, because they believe that this would give them even more leverage with the Trump administration. But if the Iranians get too aggressive, that could set off a chain of events that nobody will be able to control.
In recent weeks, President Trump has repeatedly stated that his administration will “make a decision” on Iran in the not too distant future.
Everyone knows that he is referring to military action, and he just said it again…
I could be wrong, but at this stage I think that there won’t be any additional airstrikes in Iranian territory until after the midterms.
However, once the midterms are over it appears that the U.S. and Israel intend to absolutely hammer Iran.
The Iranians are fully convinced of this, and according to the Wall Street Journal they are in full war preparation mode…
If fighting is going to inevitably erupt again, the Iranians don’t just want to absorb strikes and fire off missiles in return.
Instead, they want to go on the offensive.
One of the options that is reportedly being considered is launching “ground incursions into neighboring countries”…
Iran has the largest army in the Middle East by a wide margin.
With reserves, they can muster a force of more than a million fighting men.
That is one of their most important competitive advantages, and they are thinking about using it.
A ground incursion across southern Iraq to grab Kuwait would be an extremely shocking move.
But if the Iranians were to commit a couple hundred thousand troops to such an effort, there wouldn’t be much that Iraq, Kuwait or the U.S. would be able to do about it.
The U.S. has a few thousand Marines in the Middle East, but that wouldn’t be nearly enough to stop an Iranian ground invasion.
The Iranians are also strengthening positions around their most important nuclear sites…
The Iranian nuclear program is the core issue of this war, and the Iranians have no intention of backing down.
If you doubt Iranian resolve, just look at what they are doing in the Strait of Hormuz.
On Sunday, six commercial vessels were hit within the space of just 24 hours…
I really wish that the Iranians would just back off.
But that isn’t going to happen.
In fact, it appears that they just hit another tanker.
A lot of people seem to think that replacing these tankers will be easy.
But that is not true at all.
Building a modern commercial oil tanker typically takes 9 to 15 months of physical construction, but the total turnaround from signing a contract to actual delivery can take up to 3 years.
The cost to build a brand new oil tanker currently ranges from 60 million dollars to 140 million dollars.
So when a tanker is hit by an Iranian cruise missile, it is a very big deal.
It will be many years before the global tanker fleet is back up to full capacity.
Meanwhile, the Saudis and the Houthis are both attacking energy infrastructure.
Just a little while ago, the Saudis bombed the Al-Sabaha oil depot in Sanaa…
This has made the Houthis really angry.
They are pledging to hit some of the most strategic targets in Saudi Arabia in response…
In addition, the Houthis are warning that there will be a “swift and painful response” if the U.S. joins the fighting…
The longer the fighting in the Middle East goes on, the worse the global energy crisis will get.
Unfortunately, there is no end in sight.
Instead, it appears that the fighting in the Middle East could be about to greatly escalate.
The Iranians have warned us that they are ready to fight a “doomsday war” with the United States.
A lot of the “experts” are not taking that threat seriously, but I believe that they should.
If push comes to shove, I am convinced that the nuts that are running Iran would be willing to go all the way to the top of the escalation ladder, and that really would be a nightmare scenario.
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[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
The war in the Middle East has been essentially put on pause until the midterm elections in the United States are over, but once we get to that point Iran is expecting the fighting to go to an entirely new level. So Iran is using this temporary lull in the action to get fully prepared. Ground forces are being trained, defenses are being strengthened, new missiles are being produced, and rallies are being held to bolster public support for the coming conflict. This time around, the Iranians don’t intend to just be on the defensive. They have openly warned that they could conduct ground incursions into neighboring countries, because they believe that this would give them even more leverage with the Trump administration. But if the Iranians get too aggressive, that could set off a chain of events that nobody will be able to control.
In recent weeks, President Trump has repeatedly stated that his administration will “make a decision” on Iran in the not too distant future.
Everyone knows that he is referring to military action, and he just said it again…
I could be wrong, but at this stage I think that there won’t be any additional airstrikes in Iranian territory until after the midterms.
However, once the midterms are over it appears that the U.S. and Israel intend to absolutely hammer Iran.
The Iranians are fully convinced of this, and according to the Wall Street Journal they are in full war preparation mode…
If fighting is going to inevitably erupt again, the Iranians don’t just want to absorb strikes and fire off missiles in return.
Instead, they want to go on the offensive.
One of the options that is reportedly being considered is launching “ground incursions into neighboring countries”…
Iran has the largest army in the Middle East by a wide margin.
With reserves, they can muster a force of more than a million fighting men.
That is one of their most important competitive advantages, and they are thinking about using it.
A ground incursion across southern Iraq to grab Kuwait would be an extremely shocking move.
But if the Iranians were to commit a couple hundred thousand troops to such an effort, there wouldn’t be much that Iraq, Kuwait or the U.S. would be able to do about it.
The U.S. has a few thousand Marines in the Middle East, but that wouldn’t be nearly enough to stop an Iranian ground invasion.
The Iranians are also strengthening positions around their most important nuclear sites…
The Iranian nuclear program is the core issue of this war, and the Iranians have no intention of backing down.
If you doubt Iranian resolve, just look at what they are doing in the Strait of Hormuz.
On Sunday, six commercial vessels were hit within the space of just 24 hours…
I really wish that the Iranians would just back off.
But that isn’t going to happen.
In fact, it appears that they just hit another tanker.
A lot of people seem to think that replacing these tankers will be easy.
But that is not true at all.
Building a modern commercial oil tanker typically takes 9 to 15 months of physical construction, but the total turnaround from signing a contract to actual delivery can take up to 3 years.
The cost to build a brand new oil tanker currently ranges from 60 million dollars to 140 million dollars.
So when a tanker is hit by an Iranian cruise missile, it is a very big deal.
It will be many years before the global tanker fleet is back up to full capacity.
Meanwhile, the Saudis and the Houthis are both attacking energy infrastructure.
Just a little while ago, the Saudis bombed the Al-Sabaha oil depot in Sanaa…
This has made the Houthis really angry.
They are pledging to hit some of the most strategic targets in Saudi Arabia in response…
In addition, the Houthis are warning that there will be a “swift and painful response” if the U.S. joins the fighting…
The longer the fighting in the Middle East goes on, the worse the global energy crisis will get.
Unfortunately, there is no end in sight.
Instead, it appears that the fighting in the Middle East could be about to greatly escalate.
The Iranians have warned us that they are ready to fight a “doomsday war” with the United States.
A lot of the “experts” are not taking that threat seriously, but I believe that they should.
If push comes to shove, I am convinced that the nuts that are running Iran would be willing to go all the way to the top of the escalation ladder, and that really would be a nightmare scenario.
Tweet
Continue reading...
[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
