How shifting demographics helped Democrats flip the House and Senate according to exit polls

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Democrats swept both chambers of Congress during the midterm elections by much larger margins than most polls showed, effectively making President Donald Trump a lame duck in the last two years of his second term.

Much of the Democratic victory is largely due to voter backlash against Trump’s handling of the Iran war, tariffs, and allegations of corruption in Washington.

Exit polls also show signs that Trump’s inroads with minority voters during the 2024 presidential election were erased or weakened in 2026 as frustration over the economy and high costs of living grew.

Here’s how some demographics shifted, helping enable Tuesday night’s blue tsunami.

Latino male voters​


Trump rode a wave of discontent to victory in 2024 in part because Latino men were dissatisfied with former President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy. Two years later, Latinos flipped back toward Democrats.

According to NBC’s exit poll, Latino men nationwide favored Democrats by 56% to 41% for Republicans. In 2024, NBC’s exit poll showed Latino men favoring Republicans 54% to Democrats 44%.

CNN’s exit polls showed Latino men voting for Texas Senate-elect James Talarico (D) at 61%, compared to 39% for state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Latino men also favored Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa (D) at 57% over Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), who won 42% of their support.

In North Carolina, Latino men favored Gov.-elect Roy Cooper 68% to Republican Michael Whatley’s 26%, according to CNN’s exit poll.

In Georgia, 66% of Latino men backed Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in his successful bid against Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) who pulled in 34% support.

Black male voters​


Like Latino men, Trump also made inroads with black men in 2024. But their support for the GOP seems to have shifted in 2026.

According to NBC’s exit polls, 85% of black men favored Democrats nationally while 13% backed Republicans.

In Texas, 88% of black men supported Talarico over Paxton’s 10%, while 87% of black men supported Hinojosa, compared to the 11% that favored Abbott, according to CNN’s exit polls.

Black men backed Cooper in North Carolina at 89%, while Whatley drew only 10%, according to CNN. In Ohio, 86% of black men backed Democratic Gov.-elect Amy Acton over the 10% who supported Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, according to CNN. They also helped boost Sen.-elect Sherrod Brown (D) at 85% over Sen. John Husted (R-OH) at 9%.

In Georgia, Ossoff won 91% of black men in contrast to the 9% who backed Collins.

Arab American voters​


The 2024 race saw Trump court Arab Americans in Michigan over their anger at Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris’s support of Israel in its battle against Hamas.

But Senate-elect Abdul el Sayed prevailed in the face of GOP attacks over his family’s alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood by, in part, relying on the support of Arab Americans.

El Sayed pulled in 73% of the Arab American vote while former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers won just 27% of their support, according to CNN.

Arab Americans also backed Democratic Gov.-elect Jocelyn Benson at 71%, while Rep. John James (R-MI) drew 28%, CNN exit polls showed.

Jewish voters​


Jewish voters have been at odds with supporting Democrats as more socialists and progressives pushed for the U.S. to cease financially backing Israel and accused the nation of genocide against Palestinians.

But NBC’s exit polls showed Jewish voters continued to back Democrats nationally at 67% support, while 32% supported Republicans.

An exit poll of 482 Jewish early voters in Michigan, by the Jewish Majority, an advocacy group led by an AIPAC veteran, showed 57% of Jewish early voters cast a ballot for el Sayed, while 78% supported Benson, a 21-percentage-point gap. Rogers received 36% of the Jewish early vote.

The poll also showed that one-third of voters who supported Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in 2024 did not support el Sayed.

White voters​


On a national level, the GOP won 55% of the white male vote in contrast to the 43% who supported Democrats. But the GOP also lost the white female vote with 47%, while Democrats won 51% of white women, according to NBC’s exit poll.

That pattern was replicated in several battleground states that helped Democrats improbably flip the Senate in red-leaning states.

White women backed Acton in Ohio at 52% while Ramaswamy won 45% of their vote. White men backed Ramaswamy at 52% while Acton won 45% of their votes, according to CNN. Brown also won the white women vote at 50%, while Husted won the white male vote at 54%.

In Kansas, Democratic Senate-elect Adam Hamilton won the white women vote at 53%, while Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) won the white male vote at 50%, CNN showed. Cooper in North Carolina won the white women vote at 55%, while Whatley won the white men vote at 55%.

In Iowa, Democratic Senate-elect Josh Turek won the white women vote at 55% while Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) won white male voters at 53%, CNN showed.

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Some notable exceptions are that Sen. Darline Graham won both the white male vote at 58% and the white women vote at 54%, according to CNN, but still lost to Democratic Senate-elect Annie Andrews. Ossoff also lost both the white male (63%) and white female votes (56%) and still won reelection.

Talarico won both the white male (50%) and female vote (58%) over Paxton.

According to a New York Times survey, non-college-educated white voters supported the GOP by 69% while college-educated white voters backed Democrats at 58%. Similarly, NBC’s exit poll showed non-college-educated white voters backing the GOP at 61% and college-educated voters backing Democrats at 59%.

Those statistics showed the GOP slightly increasing among white voters who don’t have a college degree since the 2024 election. Back then NBC’s exit poll showed non-college-educated white voters backed the GOP at 66% while college-educated voters backed Democrats at 53%.

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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]

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