Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has acknowledged a lame-duck increase through the end of President Donald Trump’s term as a possibility “multiple times since July,” Politico reported on Oct. 13. Republicans are also eyeing defense money, and a reconciliation package shelved before the midterms carried about $100 billion for defense and farm aid, Roll Call reported.
In September, I wrote that a continuing resolution buys time, not a plan. A higher ceiling buys more time. Congress shouldn’t raise the debt limit this winter without a recorded vote on a plan to pay for what the borrowing buys.
The Treasury Department doesn’t need the room tomorrow. Lou Crandall of Wrightson ICAP, in what he called an “off-the-cuff” guess, expects the government to run short of cash in late 2027 or early 2028. A lame-duck vote has roughly a year of runway, so nobody can claim an emergency as the reason to skip the plan.
I’ve run my own investment consulting firm for 16 years. When I asked my bank for a larger credit line, the banker wanted updated financials first. Thirty years in institutional investment management taught me the same habit from the other side of the table: Ask every borrower for the repayment source. Congress isn’t a legal fiduciary, and I know of no court that has held a sovereign legislature to a trustee’s duty of prudence, so this is a stewardship test and not a lawsuit. It’s still a fair test. Lifting the ceiling on routine is Groundhog Day without the character growth. Bill Murray’s weatherman at least learned the piano.
The balance sheet explains the urgency of the question. Treasury’s Debt to the Penny shows $40.6 trillion outstanding on Oct. 29, against a $41.1 trillion limit set in the 2025 reconciliation law. The Congressional Budget Office’s February outlook puts debt held by the public at 100.6% of GDP in 2026 and 120.2% in 2036, above the 1946 record of 106%. Over the same decade, CBO’s own table shows net interest climbing from $970 billion in 2025 to $2.1 trillion in 2036. That’s more than double. Nobody cuts a ribbon on interest. It’s the bill for votes already cast.
Social Security sets the clock. The 2026 Trustees Report projects that the retirement and survivors trust fund will run out of reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, after which income will cover 78% of scheduled benefits. That’s a 22% automatic cut. Payroll taxes keep arriving, so the program doesn’t go to zero, but by my arithmetic, a retiree scheduled for $2,000 a month would collect $1,560. The trustees put the combined retirement and disability funds at the third quarter of 2034 with 83% payable, though merging them takes a change in law. A higher ceiling allows the Treasury to pay bills it already owes. It adds nothing to the trust fund’s income, so the plan has to address Social Security directly.
Deadlines produce plans when members must vote on them. The Social Security Amendments of 1983, signed April 20 on the recommendations of a national commission, raised the full retirement age to 67 by 2027 and made up to half of benefits taxable for higher-income households. Those votes were recorded, and anyone can still look up who cast them.
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Here’s what I’d put in front of every member: Raise the limit as needed to pay obligations already incurred. Then hold a separate recorded vote on a plan that sets a debt target and a date, names the spending and revenue changes instead of promising savings to be identified, carries a CBO score tested against interest rates and growth, schedules a floor vote on Social Security, and requires public reporting when a milestone slips. A commission can’t be scored as savings. Defense and farm aid deserve votes on their own merits, because attaching them to a ceiling bill hands members cover. Republicans who campaign against borrowing and Democrats who defend benefits without financing them both belong in this vote.
A recorded vote won’t guarantee a good plan. It does tell constituents who owns the result. Raise the limit if the bills require it, vote on the plan, and put every name on the record. A ceiling lifted without one is a refinancing with better press.
Jay Rogers is a financial professional with more than 30 years of experience in private equity, private credit, hedge funds, and wealth management. He writes about issues in finance, constitutional law, national security, human nature, and public policy.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
