WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY: Good afternoon and happy November, readers! Much of the state of Virginia was experiencing peak fall foliage at the end of last week.
Congress will be back in session one week from today, and one of the first issues lawmakers will be addressing is permitting reform. Today’s edition of Daily on Energy dives into some of the latest modeling on how the Senate’s bipartisan legislation will affect the U.S. energy system and who else is opposing the bill.
Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner energy and environment writers Callie Patteson (@CalliePatteson) and Maydeen Merino (@MaydeenMerino). Email cpatteson@washingtonexaminer dot com or mmerino@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.
CONGRESS IS BACK NEXT WEEK, SO WHAT’S THE LATEST ON PERMITTING?
In just one week, the Senate is expected to hold a preliminary vote on the bipartisan permitting reform bill, commonly known as BAAJA. Environmental and climate organizations are lobbying Democrats to vote against the legislation, while clean energy groups and manufacturing industry groups are pushing members to vote ‘yes.’
The Rhodium Group released a new analysis this morning with the aim of modeling the bill’s effects on the energy system, particularly via provisions that would reduce barriers to building transmission infrastructure and protect ratepayers from shouldering the costs of the buildout of artificial intelligence. The review excludes other provisions regarding permit certainty, geothermal, and advanced transmission technologies.
Specifically, the research group found that the legislation as written would increase the construction of interregional transmission infrastructure to nearly three times the rate over the last decade.
It also estimated that it would drive up to an additional 249 gigawatts worth of clean energy resources to be built through 2040.
The Rhodium Group said it would also increase liquefied natural gas export levels by 8-15%, beyond the 76-145% increase already expected under current policies.
Still, the group forecast that BAAJA would lead a reduction in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by up to 148 million metric tons annually in 2040, and as much as 1.5 gigatons cumulatively.
You can read the full analysis here.
How much data centers could pay: Separately, consulting group Grid Strategies released a white paper this morning estimating how much data centers could be forced to pay for connecting to the grid if BAAJA is passed.
If you forgot, the legislation as written would force large-load facilities such as data centers to pay for the energy and transmission infrastructure needed for their operations, and would mandate that no incremental costs are passed on to other customers.
It also would order utilities to ensure that transmission costs are fully assigned to these large-load operators to “minimize or avoid cost burden on other customers.”
Under these provisions, Grid Strategies estimated BAAJA would result in $55 billion in transmission service charges to data centers over 10 years. The group said this represents an additional $35 billion over what data centers would otherwise pay to connect to the grid under current policies.
Biden alum split grows: As we explored a bit last week, there is a growing divide among former staffers of the Biden administration regarding support for the bill. There are several individuals who worked on climate issues under the last administration who have endorsed the bill – see Jane Flegal – and many others adamantly opposed.
Tracy Stone-Manning, director of the Bureau of Land Management under the Biden administration, joined the latter group today.
Stone-Manning currently serves as the president of The Wilderness Society, which released a statement of opposition this morning. The statement says the bill puts millions of acres of public lands and national monuments at risk of fossil fuel and data center development.
“A clean energy future is possible and necessary, but not at the expense of our country’s conservation heritage, the clean water our public lands deliver and the loss of cherished sacred sites and cultural histories,” Stone-Manning said.
All the rest:
OIL PRICES PLUNGE: Domestic and international oil prices plummeted today on the news a draft proposal for a peace deal between Washington and Tehran had been circulated after days of talks between Iran and Qatar.
An official briefed on the peace talks told Reuters that Iranian negotiators left Qatar on Sunday, and confirmed the draft proposal was being circulated.
Over the weekend, Axios also reported that President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wished for negotiations to play out before striking Iran following the midterm elections.
The willingness to make a deal pushed domestic and international benchmarks for oil down today by more than 7%. Just after 2:30 p.m., Brent crude had fallen 7.79% and was selling at $104.59 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate also dropped 7.67% and was priced at $96.13 a barrel.
U.S. PUSHES TO RESTORE RUSSIAN GAS SALES TO EUROPE: The Trump administration is pushing to restore Russian natural gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal reported today that the idea is part of negotiations to secure an energy ceasefire ahead of the winter, citing U.S., European, and Ukrainian officials. The proposal came from Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and was floated during trips to Moscow and Kyiv in September.
The idea would include selling Russian gas via a U.S. intermediary to circumvent European sanctions, which could create a lucrative opportunity for investors, the WSJ said. Europe has been phasing out the purchases of Russian natural gas, with plans to completely phase it out by 2027.
The plan to restore natural gas sales was delayed last month because Ukraine stopped attacking Russian refineries, despite Russia continuing to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. But attacks by Kyiv on key Russian energy infrastructure resumed last week.
IRAN WAR COULD ACCELERATE ENERGY TRANSITION: French oil major TotalEnergies suggested earlier today that the war in Iran could speed up the global transition to cleaner fuels, with demand for petroleum products peaking during the 2030s before seeing a slow decline.
The forecast comes one year after TotalEnergies estimated that oil demand would rise until 2040 before starting to fall.
This shift in predictions is directly connected to the war in Iran and the disruptions to the oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, which the oil major said was “testing the resilience of the energy system.” TotalEnergies said the crisis has incentivized diversifying supply sources and developing available energies, such as renewables and biofuels.
The company then said the crisis “can also act as an accelerator of the energy transition,” pointing to increased sales of electric vehicles in Asia, Latin America, and Europe, as well as increased biofuel blending requirements.
You can find TotalEnergies’ full 2026 outlook here.
COMMENT PERIOD ENDS ON EPA’S PROPOSAL TO REPEAL ALL GREENHOUSE GAS LIMITS FOR POWER PLANS: Today is the final day to comment on the Environmental Protection Agency’s supplemental rule to remove all greenhouse gas requirements for fossil fuel power plants.
The supplemental rule was proposed in September as part of the agency’s final rule that repealed a set of Biden administration’s standards on new and existing power plants. Those standards were aimed at reducing pollution from power plants by using carbon capture, sequestration, and storage technology.
The supplemental rule asks the public to comment whether the agency should remove all greenhouse gas requirements for fossil fuel power plants, including the 2015 standards for new coal-fired power plants and the remaining aspects of the 2024 power plant rule.
The EPA argued that a full repeal of the remaining greenhouse gas emission standards would save an additional $370 million in compliance costs and for households across the country.
ICYMI – OFFSHORE WIND CRACKDOWN SPREADS TO BRITAIN: The United States isn’t the only place the offshore wind industry is facing hurdles, as the United Kingdom will be imposing new rules blocking some projects.
In an op-ed released Friday, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey revealed that the government would not be supporting offshore wind projects that would not lower electricity bills.
“There’s no sense building power that can’t connect and then paying to switch it off,” he wrote in The Times. “We will take that approach into our next renewables auction, only buying projects that can lower bills while strengthening our energy security.”
The rules mark a significant shift from the Labour Party’s promise to have at least 95% of the UK’s electricity generated by clean sources of energy by 2030. As part of that pledge, the party said it would work to double onshore wind, triple solar power, and quadruple offshore wind.
Under the new rules, however, the government plans to be more selective about which offshore wind projects it will give contracts.
The shift in tone is primarily driven by concerns about wasted wind charges. The National Energy System Operator in the U.K. is required to pay wind turbines to shut off when there is not enough cabling capacity to transmit the electricity to consumers.
A LOOK AHEAD
Nov. 2 – 4 DTECH Northeast is taking place in Boston, Massachusetts.
Nov. 2 – 5 ADIPEC, one of the world’s largest oil and gas energy conferences, is being held in Abu Dhabi.
Nov. 3 is Election Day. Go out and vote!
Nov. 4 – 5 DERVOS 2026, a summit focused on distributed energy resources, is taking place in New York, New York.
Nov. 4 – 6 The Southeast Power NEXT conference is being held in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Nov. 5 The Environmental and Energy Study Institute is hosting a briefing on what Congress can expect during COP31.
RUNDOWN
CNN The high-tech efforts to restore ‘climate hero’ mangroves
The American Conservative Can Conservatives Go Green?
Politico Geothermal is heating up. Can the grid keep up?
Continue reading...
[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
