Republicans may see a slight 2026 turnout boost not from candidates or President Donald Trump’s breakneck campaign schedule, but from specific statewide measures that will appear on ballots come Election Day.
Ballot measures themselves represent one of the most direct ways for voters to influence state policies: a simple yes or no vote on issues that voters care deeply about but have little likelihood of being legislated into law.
In total, 164 ballot measures will be decided by voters across the country this election cycle, according to Ballotpedia. The majority, 145, will appear on the general election ballot, while the remaining 19 were already decided this year.
Those totals mark the highest number of certified ballot measures since 2018, and anecdotal evidence suggests the measures, some 40 of which directly address election security, could help boost Republican turnout despite Trump’s poor approval ratings and general dissatisfaction with the economy, war in Iran, and other issues.
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An analysis following the 2024 election conducted by the U.S. Vote Foundation found that states featuring ballot initiatives saw turnout increase by 3%–8%, compared with states that did not certify any ballot measures. A 2001 study by researchers from Kent State University and the University of Denver found that ballot measures boosted turnout by 7%–9% in midterm cycles and 3%–4.5% in general elections in the 1990s.
Heading into this weekend, more than 43 million Americans have already voted ahead of Election Day, and polling suggests that Democrats are poised to win control of at least one chamber of Congress. Still, Democrats must defend the seats they currently hold and flip at least four additional Senate races to win back majority control in the upper chamber. Their best chances to win the majority run through Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
And four of those states — Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and North Carolina — will present voters with ballot initiatives focused on advancing election security provisions, a top priority for many Republican voters. Trump himself spent much of the past year lobbying congressional Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and photo ID to cast a ballot. The measure passed the House but died in the Senate.
Alaska and Kansas voters will have the opportunity to vote on measures that would amend state laws to explicitly ensure that only U.S. citizens can vote in state and local elections, as is the case for federal or statewide races. Six states in total, including Arizona, Arkansas, South Dakota, and West Virginia, will vote on similar measures. Those four additional states are not viewed as critical races for determining majority control of Congress.
Alaska voters will also be presented with Ballot Measure 2 — a provision that would repeal the state’s ranked choice voting system, do away with open primaries, and institute new campaign finance disclosure rules. That measure in particular has caught national attention, as Trump himself has repeatedly urged voters to approve it, both while stumping in Alaska this month and at other stops on the trail. California, Colorado, and Nevada will feature similar measures on their ballots.
“You’ve got to terminate it and get it out,” Trump told attendees at a rally in Wasilla, Alaska, on Oct. 13, supporting the state’s Ballot Measure 2. “Any place you have ranked choice, you have damn bad cheating, and we can’t let that happen.”
In Ohio and North Carolina, voters will decide on a measure requiring certified forms of identification while casting ballots in future elections.
Still, Arizona-based independent pollster Mike Noble suggested that Republicans relying on ballot measures to boost turnout was little more than wishful thinking, considering the serious midterm headwinds they are facing.
“In today’s political environment, Republicans are hoping for anything to invigorate their base,” he said in a recent interview with Pluribus News. “The problem is, especially when it comes to societal ballot measures, they won’t do much good to motivate their base when facing crushing economic pain.”
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A veteran Republican operative who works closely with the president’s political team similarly cast doubts on the idea that election security may stave off Democratic wins in Senate races.
“I think this really all comes down to the president. He’s campaigned heavily in all of those states and effectively made the case to voters to stick with common-sense, ‘America First’ policies rather than surrendering to the socialist lunacy of the Left,” that person stated. “At the end of the day, he’ll be the deciding factor, and I think we all know that.”
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
