SAVANNAH, Georgia — Although Democrats expect Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) to cruise to reelection next week, they are less convinced that Keisha Lance Bottoms, the party’s nominee for governor, can replicate his success statewide.
A RealClearPolitics average of polls conducted in September and October revealed Ossoff had an 8.2% advantage over Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), while Bottoms trailed her opponent, Rick Jackson, by roughly 1%.
Bottoms’s bid has been an uphill battle as a first-time gubernatorial candidate, while Ossoff has established a name for himself in Georgia and a national profile over the past six years.
Some voters who spoke with the Washington Examiner blamed racism and sexism for Bottoms’s lagging poll numbers. Others credited Ossoff’s charisma and deep coffers with his overperformance in the GOP-leaning state.
Charles S. Bullock III, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, and Andra Gillespie, associate professor of political science at Atlanta-based Emory University, agreed that Ossoff’s incumbency likely automatically gave him an advantage of several points over Bottoms.
Jackson’s commercials have outnumbered those for Bottoms on the airwaves, and Ossoff had significant backing from political action committees, which Bottoms does not. Bottoms has also been out of the public spotlight since January 2022, while Ossoff has been a sitting senator for nearly six years.
“In short, while we need to explore the ways that Bottoms’ race, gender, and record as Atlanta mayor inform vote choice, we also need to remember that the governor’s race, unlike the senate race, is an open seat contest,” Gillespie wrote in an email. “Those tend to be more competitive.”
A collage of Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson. (AP)
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A collage of Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson. (AP)
Bullock pointed to the “quality” of the Republicans challenging each Democrat. Jackson is a billionaire businessman who has poured nearly $200 million of his own money into his campaign, taking down Republican Lt. Gov. Burt Jones during the GOP primary even as President Donald Trump’s endorsement was against him.
Ossoff is running against a congressman who has received significant attention for unethical and potentially illegal acts in office, including the misuse of campaign funds and ties to white nationalists and neo-Nazis, which could prompt undecided voters to go with Ossoff.
Bottoms’s opponent does not come with the baggage that Collins has. In fact, Jackson has an “amazing story” to appeal to voters, Bullock said.
“He literally goes from rags to phenomenal riches,” Bullock said. “It’s not only that, but also part of his story is that he has put 800 kids who aged out of foster care through college.”
Not only is Jackson circulating television ads about his story, his campaign has released ads about Bottoms’s performance as mayor during the first Trump administration, and that has not helped her, according to 87-year-old Democratic voter Albert Reichert, who attended an Ossoff event in Macon on Thursday.
Bottoms oversaw Atlanta during the pandemic, George Floyd protests, the police-involved fatal shooting of Rayshard Brooks, and civil unrest that resulted in the killing of 8-year-old Secoriea Turner. Overall crime in Atlanta climbed in 2020, in part due to the pandemic. But Bottoms was mayor at the time of the crime spike.
Lauren Dawson, a 25-year-old who works at an art and science museum in Macon, said Jackson does not have to answer for his past political experience because he has none, but Bottoms cannot avoid the issue.
“She was mayor of Atlanta during a very difficult time,” Dawson said. “She is the one that has to answer for that. And I think her overall voice and her face has been perceived by a lot of fellow Georgians as someone who maybe dropped the ball.”
Four Democratic voters said Ossoff comes across more personable. Theatre Macon founding artistic director Jim Crisp said Ossoff has a “once-in-a-lifetime kind of charisma.”
“The intelligence just, it’s this aura of light that comes off of him. I mean, he’s a star. He’s a megastar,” said Crisp, 75. “When you’re in a room with him, you know the room just becomes filled with him. … He’s our presidential candidate in ’28.”
Mike Collins and Jon Ossoff (AP photos)
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Mike Collins and Jon Ossoff (AP photos)
Others, including Katie Woodward, suggested racial tensions in the Southern state played a role in Ossoff seeing more support than Bottoms.
“Ossoff is a white man, cis white man, and then Bottoms is a black woman. I think it’s just America is not wanting to come to terms with having a black woman in any sort of power,” said Woodward, 23, who is studying to be a paralegal.
King Goree, a 32-year-old man who is a substitute teacher, disagreed that race was a leading concern among voters.
“So I don’t think [Ossoff’s] race is an issue. I really don’t think it’s because he’s a man,” Goree said. “Ossoff is a speaker that really encourages people. He is very convincing. His look is very convincing. I often say that he could play in a movie as Superman.”
During a voter mobilization event for Ossoff in the small city of Macon on Thursday afternoon, former Vice President Kamala Harris spent a noticeably longer portion of her remarks talking up Ossoff than Bottoms.
Harris said each candidate was “talented” and knew how to fight for their constituents, but went above and beyond to endorse Ossoff.
“He is someone who is so skilled, who is so talented, who is always lifting up the voices of the people. One of the things I love about Jon is he has the ability to deconstruct and break down the things that seem like, goodness Lord, what is going on there, and he has a way of helping us understand what’s behind it all,” Harris said. “The way he has been lifting up and exposing the corruption of this most callous, corrupt, and incompetent presidential administration is extraordinary, and sending him back into Washington, D.C., is going to be about continuing to fight for the rights of the people and all that is good and right.”
Whether Bottoms will be able to pull out a win next Tuesday may depend on Ossoff, according to Bullock, who said campaign officials he has spoken with said Ossoff would have to win by at least 10 points for her to win at all.
It will also depend on the rate that black Georgians turn out to the polls in advance and next Tuesday. Approximately 30% of all ballots would have to be cast by black voters for the Democrat to win.
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“Part of the reason that Kamala Harris came to Georgia, Barack Obama has come to Georgia, has been to try to mobilize the black [vote],” Bullock said. “The black percent in the early voting has been running ahead of that by 32%, maybe 33%.”
Bottoms’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
