Welcome to Thursday’s edition of Washington Secrets. We take a dive into the latest generic polling ahead of the midterm elections, which suggests not all is lost for Republicans. Plus, we delve into our favorite United Nations conspiracy theory, and wonder whether the president is fonder of the New York Mets than he lets on…
You might have to squint, but could there be some good news for Republicans trying to hold on to the House of Representatives?
One of the most widely trusted polling averages shows the Democratic lead over Republicans shrinking in recent weeks.
At the start of June, Democrats held a lead of 7.4 percentage points in generic congressional polling, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Two days ago, it stood at 4.7 points.
Encouraging signs have been in short supply for Republicans focused on House races. But a memo written by a senior party strategist, and shared with Secrets, offers a bullish outlook, fueled by recent polling.
“The conventional wisdom in D.C. is that the House majority is already gone,” it said. “The polling doesn’t back that up, and there’s good reason to think the real numbers are even better than what’s public.”
It goes on to say that Republicans are less likely to respond to surveys and that pollsters tend to oversample Democrats, compared to actual turnout.
Even so, most commentators think the Republican Party is in for a shellacking. Conventional wisdom holds that November voters will punish any party that holds the White House, the Senate, and the House going into the midterms.
Factor in President Donald Trump’s low approval rating, no end in sight to the Iran war, and gas prices back above $4 per gallon, and the outlook seems bleak for a party that will say goodbye to its House majority with the loss of just three seats.
“We got to wrap it up,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said of Iran earlier this week.
Another possible wrinkle is emerging in the meantime. Prediction markets suggest a 50-50 chance of a government shutdown in October amid a backlog of spending bills, a shutdown that would likely be blamed on Republicans as the governing party.
Yet the GOP still has cards to play.
Top party and White House strategists met this week at the Four Seasons hotel to talk strategy, and how to spend a whopping $530 million war chest, Secrets is told.
They plan to turn the campaign into a “contrast election,” highlighting how socialists are taking over the Democratic Party.
And they are taking comfort from polls showing the contest tightening.
An RMG Research poll from the middle of July showed the Democratic lead shrinking to two points from nine in May, and a Washington Post poll showing the Republican deficit at only three points.
That poll also found that voters trust Republicans to do a better job on the economy (+4%), and are best to represent their values (+1%).
Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans, said the public data were encouraging.
“Every poll that’s come out in the last month shows this race tightening, and it’s happening despite pollsters who’ve been undercounting Republicans for a decade,” he said. “With 100 days left, Republicans are on offense and ready to defy history.”
Not everyone is convinced, however.
“I’m seeing the Democratic lead expanding,” said a Republican pollster who asked for anonymity in order to protect client relationships.
Either way, some of the tightening may be driven by Republicans coming home. As polling day nears, some of the “out party’s” supporters may go from undecided back into the R column.
And it could be that pollsters are now making their shift from polling all registered voters to likely voters, those who are more likely to actually turn out in November, altering sample composition.
Party insiders add that even accounting for those familiar trends, the position today compares favorably with the summer of 2018, an analogous cycle with Trump in power, and Republicans holding the House and Senate.Then, the RealClearPolitics average showed Democrats extending their lead by 4 points during the summer, compared with shrinking almost 3 points now.
The memo says history suggests the president’s party loses seats in the midterm elections.
“But history also assumed accurate polling, a clear Democratic alternative, and no structural undercount of Republican support,” it concludes. “None of those hold this cycle.”
Is Trump a Mets fan?
Trump held a rally in Georgia yesterday where he praised the local Major League Baseball team and threw shade at his hometown New York Mets.
He was joined onstage by Mike Plant, the president of Braves Development Company.
“So, I like baseball,” Trump said, “but this guy has done such a great job. You know, the Mets have the highest salary in baseball, and they lose all the time. And I say, ‘Maybe we can steal this guy.’”
Trump’s use of “we” for the Mets is interesting. He is a Queens native, putting him firmly in Mets territory, and has occasionally been spotted at their games. But he has generally identified more with the Yankees. (Can’t think why a man noted for his love of gold and winning would go for the rich, winning, glamorous team across town.)
So maybe he wasn’t announcing a rapid switch of allegiance. Let’s assume it was a classic politician’s ploy by bigging up the local team and ridiculing the Mets. The audience would have enjoyed his dig at a divisional rival, all fueled by a Wall Street Journal story about the Mets’ disastrous season. It was headlined: The Mets are the biggest waste of money in baseball history.
Divided nations
While we are on the subject of sport and politics, an interesting theory reaches us from the United Nations in New York.
A rumor has circulated for a while that Trump wants Gianni Infantino, the president of FIFA, to be the next U.N. secretary-general when Antonio Guterres’ term concludes at the end of the year. It even made it to the White House briefing room on Thursday morning, when press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the two had not discussed the idea, as far as she knew.
But Infantino missed a trick during the World Cup, points out U.N. watcher Richard Gowan.
“This rumor has been around for a while. Can’t assess its accuracy,” Goven posted. “But if @FIFAcom is as smart as folk claim, it wouldn’t have left 2 of the P5 in 3rd place playoff…”
What can he mean?
France and England were both knocked out of the World Cup in the semifinals. They both have permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council (making them two of the P5 nations, as they are known), giving them an outsized say in who will get the top job next.
In other words, Infantino might have done himself a favor by ensuring they both reached the final at the expense of two nations that don’t have permanent seats.
Not, of course, that anyone would suggest FIFA had influence over the outcome of the World Cup! Heaven forbid!
Lunchtime reading
People are watching the Reflecting Pool like reality TV. What does that say about us? Haven’t we all read enough about the reflecting pool? This piece is quite fun and worth your time.
Ed Markey’s new ad showcases support from the left – and an age problem: If you are running an ad to tackle questions about your advanced age (80) then maybe don’t make a big thing of your support from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Dianne Feinstein. (Okay, we made the last one up.)
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
