Yes, Democrats could impeach Trump in the House after the new Congress convenes in January 2027,
but the chances of successful removal from office are extremely low.
Trump is currently serving his second term (2025–2029). The November 3, 2026, midterms resulted in Democrats gaining control of both the House and Senate. Reports indicate Democrats picked up enough seats (around +25 in the House and +7 in the Senate) to secure majorities well clear of the thresholds needed (218 in the House; effectively 51 in the Senate, counting independents who caucus with Democrats).
How Impeachment Works
- The House of Representatives can impeach (formally charge) a president with a simple majority vote for “Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
- The Senate then holds a trial. Conviction and removal requires a two-thirds supermajority (67 votes if all 100 senators participate).
- The Senate can also vote separately to disqualify the person from future office.
With Democratic control of the House, they can pass articles of impeachment on a party-line vote if leadership chooses to do so. No Republican support is needed there.
Chances of House Impeachment
Prediction markets (as of the morning of November 4, 2026) put the odds of a third House impeachment at roughly 77–80%.Democratic leaders have been deliberately noncommittal. Incoming House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries has repeatedly said they “haven’t ruled anything in, and we haven’t ruled anything out.” Some progressives and individual members support it; others (including some senators like Sherrod Brown) have publicly opposed another attempt. Many prefer aggressive oversight, investigations into Trump’s administration/business dealings/family, and possibly targeting Cabinet officials instead.
Chances of Conviction/Removal (“Working”)
Very low—practically near zero under current conditions.
Even with a Senate majority of around 53–54 seats, Democrats would need roughly 13–15 Republican senators to join them for a 67-vote conviction. That level of Republican support is highly improbable. In Trump’s second impeachment (after January 6, 2021), only seven Republicans voted to convict. Party loyalty has generally tightened since then, and no president has ever been removed via Senate conviction.
Most analysts and Democratic voices describe a third impeachment as likely to be symbolic or focused on oversight benefits rather than realistic removal. It would consume significant time and political capital with little chance of changing who occupies the White House for the remaining ~2 years of the term.
In short: House impeachment is plausible and currently viewed as likely by markets if Democrats decide to pursue it. Actual removal is not.
