AS OF 10:54 PM CENTRAL — NOVEMBER 3, 2026
The battle for Congress has changed dramatically since our prior 9:18 PM Central update.
The biggest development is now clear: Democrats have won control of the United States Senate, according to the Associated Press. The House remains too early to call — and the distinction between seats that have been called and seats where a candidate merely leads is absolutely critical.
The AP tied its Senate-control call to Democratic victories in six Republican-held seats: North Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. It also reported Jon Ossoff holding Georgia, while Michigan was still counting and had not been called in the 10:54 PM Central snapshot.
WHAT MATERIALLY CHANGED SINCE 9:18 PM CENTRAL
- Senate control: The AP has called Democratic control after Democratic pickups in North Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. Georgia is a Democratic hold.
- House calls: The AP snapshot has 273 House races called — 168 for Democrats and 105 for Republicans — compared with 171 called at our prior update.
- House pickups: Democrats now have 10 called pickups in the AP data, up from three in the prior update. Republicans have no called pickups in this snapshot.
- Michigan Senate: Votes are reporting, but the race is not called. Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 49.94% to 48.16% with 42.52% of the expected vote counted.
Those are major movements. But remember: a media projection is not a certified result, and a current lead in an uncalled race is not the same thing as a called seat.
PRE-ELECTION POLLING — FINAL POLLS, NOT VOTE RESULTS
Final polling is useful as a benchmark for understanding tonight’s movement. It is not an election result.
The Siena Research Institute showed James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 50% to 43% in the closely watched Texas Senate contest. That final New York Times/Siena poll was fielded from October 27 through November 1 among 1,215 likely voters.
The Texas margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 points, making the reported seven-point advantage larger than the survey’s stated sampling margin.
In Michigan, the same final series had Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers 53% to 42%. It was fielded from October 23 through November 1 among 1,011 likely voters.
The Michigan margin was plus or minus 3.8 points, while the poll’s reported eleven-point advantage was substantially wider.
In Ohio, the final Siena survey put Sherrod Brown ahead of Jon Husted 49% to 44%. It was fielded from October 26 through November 1 among 717 likely voters.
The Ohio margin was plus or minus 4.4 points, placing the reported five-point advantage just beyond that stated sampling margin.
The same final series also showed Turek narrowly ahead in Iowa and Hamilton ahead in Kansas. Those pre-election readings help frame the scale of tonight’s movement, but sampling error, turnout and late decisions mean they cannot be treated as counted ballots.
The polls were final snapshots of likely voters, not forecasts that assigned every undecided voter. Each is therefore presented only as a benchmark against the separate election-night returns below.
Texas status: POLLING ONLY. Michigan status: POLLING ONLY.
Ohio status: POLLING ONLY.
Those surveys were the last snapshots before voting ended. The reported vote totals below are a separate measure and supersede polling as evidence of what voters actually did.
VOTER SURVEY — NOT A TRADITIONAL EXIT POLL
We are not presenting a separate traditional precinct exit poll in this update.
The AP Voter Poll is a large nationwide voter survey conducted by SSRS for the AP and participating television networks. It surveyed roughly 80,000 voters using a blend of probability and nonprobability samples.
Interviews ran from October 19 through November 3 in Alaska and from October 22 through November 3 elsewhere, covering both early voting and Election Day participation.
The estimated margin for the full sample was about plus or minus 0.6 percentage points, although state and subgroup estimates necessarily carry wider uncertainty.
That methodology matters. AP VoteCast-style data and the AP Voter Poll are voter surveys, not raw ballot counts, and we will not relabel their modeled electorate findings as confirmed results.
The survey can explain who participated and what motivated them, but it cannot call a race or certify a winner. Its findings must be read alongside — and kept separate from — actual reported ballots and race-desk projections.
The project combined interviews conducted before Election Day with interviews conducted through voting, then weighted the responses to represent each state’s electorate. That makes it valuable for measuring voter attitudes while leaving the counting and calling of races to separate systems.
Here is the AP’s on-story voter-survey receipt:
RACE PROJECTIONS / CALLS — SEPARATE FROM CERTIFIED RESULTS
The Associated Press election results desk has called the Senate contests in Texas, South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia. Michigan remains uncalled in the 10:54 PM Central snapshot.
Those calls produced six Democratic pickups from Republican-held seats and one Democratic hold in Georgia. The AP also reported that Democrats had secured Senate control, while its House-control decision remained outstanding because dozens of races were still uncalled.
Every call below is a projection by the AP decision desk, not a state certification. The separate reported-results section gives the underlying vote totals and expected-vote-counted estimates frozen at the same timestamp.
Texas — PROJECTED/CALLED: Democrat James Talarico is the AP-projected winner over Republican Ken Paxton.
South Carolina — PROJECTED/CALLED: Democrat Annie Andrews is the AP-projected winner over Republican Darline Graham.
Ohio — PROJECTED/CALLED: Democrat Sherrod Brown is the AP-projected winner over Republican Jon Husted.
Iowa — PROJECTED/CALLED: Democrat Josh Turek is the AP-projected winner over Republican Ashley Hinson.
Kansas — PROJECTED/CALLED: Democrat Adam Hamilton is the AP-projected winner over Republican Roger Marshall.
North Carolina — PROJECTED/CALLED: Democrat Roy Cooper is the AP-projected winner over Republican Michael Whatley.
Cooper publicly declared victory after the call:
Georgia — PROJECTED/CALLED: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is the AP-projected winner over Republican Mike Collins.
Michigan — VOTES REPORTING: Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers, but the AP had not called the race as of this snapshot.
CONFIRMED REPORTED RESULTS — UNOFFICIAL, NOT CERTIFIED FINAL
These are confirmed reported vote totals in the AP election feed as of 10:54 PM Central. They remain unofficial election-night returns unless and until the relevant state election authority certifies them.
SENATE — REPORTED VOTE
Texas: Talarico 4,283,190 votes (58.56%) to Paxton 2,911,622 (39.81%), with 70.17% of the expected vote counted. South Carolina: Andrews 1,034,191 (51.02%) to Graham 947,861 (46.76%), with 94.45% counted.
Ohio: Brown 2,052,321 (48.70%) to Husted 1,956,141 (46.42%), with 88.62% counted. Iowa: Turek 652,142 (50.69%) to Hinson 594,728 (46.22%), with 92.71% counted.
Kansas: Hamilton 550,028 votes (51.53%) to Marshall 485,533 (45.49%), with 92.16% counted. North Carolina: Cooper 2,436,477 (58.65%) to Whatley 1,626,904 (39.16%), with 98.95% counted.
Georgia: Ossoff 2,448,952 votes (59.03%) to Collins 1,699,868 (40.97%), with 94.39% counted. Michigan: El-Sayed 1,047,919 (49.94%) to Rogers 1,010,558 (48.16%), with 42.52% counted and no AP call.
Michigan’s still-developing count was also reflected in this election-night results update. It is not a certification:
KEY HOUSE FLIPS — REPORTED VOTE
North Carolina 11 — PROJECTED/CALLED: Jamie Ager (D) 195,637 votes (57.14%) to Jennifer Balkcom (R) 141,427 (41.30%), with 99% counted.
New Jersey 7 — PROJECTED/CALLED: Rebecca Bennett (D) 186,422 (57.10%) to Thomas Kean (R) 135,037 (41.36%), with 92.32% counted.
Pennsylvania 7 — PROJECTED/CALLED: Bob Brooks (D) 160,625 (55.82%) to Ryan Mackenzie (R) 127,117 (44.18%), with 98.35% counted.
Pennsylvania 10 — PROJECTED/CALLED: Janelle Stelson (D) 173,845 (55.03%) to Scott Perry (R) 142,059 (44.97%), with 99% counted.
CONTROL OF CONGRESS DASHBOARD
House majority threshold: 218. The AP snapshot shows 168 Democratic seats called and 105 Republican seats called.
In the 162 uncalled races with a current leader, Democrats lead 93 and Republicans lead 58; another 11 have no reported leader. Those leads are not added to the called totals.
Democrats have 10 called pickups and Republicans have zero. Overall status: TOO EARLY TO CALL.
Senate majority threshold: 51. Thirty-two Democratic seats, two independent seats and 31 Republican seats were not up this cycle.
The AP has called 17 Democratic and eight Republican contests tonight, producing a called-or-secured alignment of 49 Democrats, two independents and 39 Republicans. Among uncalled contests, Democrats lead two, Republicans lead six, another candidate leads one and one has no leader.
Democrats have six called pickups. Overall status: PROJECTED/CALLED FOR DEMOCRATIC CONTROL by AP.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Senate question has moved from suspense to an AP call: Democrats will control the chamber. The House is a different story.
Democrats have built a sizable advantage in called seats and current uncalled leads, but current leaders are not winners until races are called. Media calls are not certified final results.
We will keep the categories straight as the count develops: final polls are final polls, the voter survey is a voter survey, race calls are projections, and reported vote totals remain unofficial until certification.
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[ H/T WLT Report ]
