AS OF 5:18 P.M. CENTRAL — TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2026
The first polls of election night have now closed in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, and the long midterm countdown has finally started turning into an actual count.
But the biggest Senate and House battlegrounds are not reporting votes yet. That distinction matters: the numbers below are still final pre-election polling and a national voter survey unless a section is explicitly labeled as reported results or a race call.
What changed since our prior 1:05 p.m. Central update: the first closing bells have sounded, the AP Voter Poll has released its first national findings, and election desks are live. What has not changed is just as important: there are still no reported vote totals, leads, projections or calls in the major races covered here.
The Associated Press marked the first poll closings and opened its live election-night coverage:
PRE-ELECTION POLLING — FINAL SNAPSHOT, NOT VOTE RESULTS
Status for every race in this section: POLLING ONLY.
The final New York Times/Siena battleground polling gives Democrats leads in all seven Senate states included in its last release, but several margins remain inside or close to each survey’s margin of error. A poll is not a ballot count, and tonight will test whether the models captured the electorate that actually showed up.
Siena Research Institute reports these final likely-voter numbers: James Talarico 50% to Ken Paxton 43% in Texas; Abdul El-Sayed 53% to Mike Rogers 42% in Michigan; Sherrod Brown 49% to Jon Husted 44% in Ohio’s special election; Troy Jackson 51% to Susan Collins 45% in Maine; Adam Hamilton 49% to Roger Marshall 44% in Kansas; Mary Peltola 48% to Dan Sullivan 46% in Alaska; and Josh Turek 48% to Ashley Hinson 47% in Iowa.
The field dates ran from October 23 through November 1 depending on the state. The likely-voter samples were 1,215 in Texas, 1,011 in Michigan, 717 in Ohio, 714 in Maine, 736 in Kansas, 610 in Alaska and 705 in Iowa.
Siena listed margins of sampling error ranging from plus or minus 3.4 points in Texas to plus or minus 5.0 points in Alaska.
Texas and Michigan carry the widest margins in that final group, but Republicans should not treat either poll as a result. Paxton still has a statewide GOP infrastructure in Texas, while Michigan’s electorate has repeatedly produced close statewide finishes even when late polls looked less dramatic.
Ohio, Maine and Kansas are the races that could turn a merely difficult Republican night into a Senate-control emergency. Brown’s final five-point edge, Jackson’s six-point edge and Hamilton’s five-point edge all sit against states or incumbents with very different political histories.
The common thread is simple: each race still has to be won with counted ballots.
Iowa is the closest contest in the final seven-state release, with Turek at 48% and Hinson at 47% among 705 likely voters. Alaska is only two points apart and uses ranked-choice voting, which means a final answer could take time if nobody clears 50% on first choices.
South Carolina belongs on the watch board too. Siena Research Institute found Annie Andrews and Darline Graham tied at 48% each among 707 likely voters interviewed October 19–26, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.6 points.
The same final release placed Florida Republican Ashley Moody ahead of Democrat Shevrin Jones 51% to 44% among 707 likely voters, while Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan led Republican Royce White 52% to 42% among 722 likely voters. Those contrasting margins put the South Carolina dead heat in sharper perspective: one specific Republican-held Senate seat was sitting on a statistical knife edge immediately before voting ended.
These are still pre-election measurements rather than counted ballots. Even so, a 48%-48% final survey in South Carolina is a clear reason to watch the first county returns instead of assuming the state will follow its usual partisan pattern.
HOUSE BATTLEGROUNDS — THE PENNSYLVANIA CLUSTER
Status for PA-01, PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10: POLLING ONLY.
The House majority threshold is 218. Republicans entered Election Day with the narrowest kind of governing margin, so a handful of suburban and working-class districts can decide whether the House remains in GOP hands.
Siena Research Institute found Democrats ahead or tied across four Republican-held Pennsylvania districts in surveys conducted October 16–22. Bob Harvie led Brian Fitzpatrick 48% to 46% in PA-01; Bob Brooks led Ryan Mackenzie 49% to 44% in PA-07; Paige Cognetti led Rob Bresnahan 51% to 46% in PA-08; and Janelle Stelson and Scott Perry were tied at 48% in PA-10.
The district samples were roughly 400 likely voters apiece: 400 in PA-01, 401 in PA-07, 402 in PA-08 and 404 in PA-10. Those are close-race snapshots, not substitutes for returns.
PA-01 may be the sharpest early test of whether an established Republican brand can survive a national backlash. PA-07 and PA-08 could show whether Democrats are converting their polling advantage into real gains in eastern Pennsylvania.
PA-10 is a straight toss-up in the final Siena snapshot.
The other consequential House clusters include Virginia’s competitive districts, Florida’s newly drawn battlegrounds, and contested seats in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Iowa, Texas, Arizona and California. Those races will come online at different hours, and California’s mail-heavy count could keep the final House verdict open well beyond tonight.
VOTER SURVEY — AP VOTER POLL, NOT REPORTED VOTES
Status: VOTER SURVEY AVAILABLE.
There is no credible traditional exit-poll result being presented here. The new AP Voter Poll is a voter survey developed by the Associated Press and a network consortium as an evolution of AP VoteCast and traditional exit polling.
Its methodology combines address-based sampling with online and telephone participation and verification of voting behavior.
The Associated Press reports that about three-quarters of voters describe themselves as angry or dissatisfied with the country’s direction. Roughly three-quarters also rate the economy as not so good or poor, while about half say cost of living and government corruption were crucial to their congressional vote.
The survey also gives election-night viewers a national measurement of motivation before the district-level returns settle the races. Economic frustration and concern about corruption can shape turnout and ticket splitting, but the findings describe the people who voted rather than allocating a single House or Senate seat.
That methodological boundary is essential tonight. The voter survey helps explain the environment, while reported vote totals from state and local election authorities determine who is actually ahead.
RACE PROJECTIONS AND CALLS
Status for every major race covered above: no projection or call as of 5:18 p.m. Central.
AP says it does not make speculative projections. It calls a winner only after determining that the trailing candidate has no realistic path to close the gap.
A call can come before every ballot is counted, but it is still separate from both a current lead and a certified final result.
The Associated Press notes that all 435 House districts and 35 Senate contests are being called independently. Ranked-choice voting in Alaska and Maine, plus slow mail-ballot counts in states such as California, could delay the control call even after many individual races are decided.
Control is determined race by race, not by a national vote total. The House requires 218 seats, while the Senate requires 51 Democratic-caucus seats or 50 Republican seats with the vice president available to break a tie.
AP can call individual races before every ballot is tabulated when the remaining vote cannot change the winner, but it waits to call chamber control until one party has secured enough called seats. Current leads remain separate from those called-seat totals throughout this update.
AP’s live race-call feed and balance-of-power map are now running:
CONFIRMED REPORTED RESULTS
Status for every major race covered above: no confirmed reported vote total available as of 5:18 p.m. Central.
No candidate vote totals, vote percentages or reporting levels are published here because the major battlegrounds in this update had not begun reporting. A media call will remain in the call section.
An unofficial state tally will remain labeled as reported results. A certified final result will be identified only when the responsible election authority certifies it.
The next meaningful wave begins when more East Coast polls close. Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia close at 6 p.m. Central; North Carolina and Ohio follow at 6:30; Pennsylvania and most of Florida at 7; and the large Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas group is fully closed by 8 p.m. Central.
HOUSE AND SENATE CONTROL DASHBOARDS
Senate: 34 seats in the Democratic caucus and 31 Republican seats are not up tonight. Zero of the 35 Senate contests were called, zero had a reportable current leader in this snapshot, and all 35 remained uncalled.
Pickups: Democrats 0, Republicans 0. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans can control the chamber with 50 because Vice President JD Vance can break a tie.
House: zero races were called, zero were listed as currently leading, all 435 remained uncalled, and pickups stood at Democrats 0 and Republicans 0. The majority threshold is 218.
Current leaders remain separate from the called-seat count.
The polling picture is rough for Republicans. Election Day does not award seats for polls, vibes or cable-news confidence; the vote count is the test, and the first real battleground numbers are still ahead.
We will keep the categories clean as the night unfolds: polling is polling, a voter survey is a voter survey, a current lead is not a call, a call is not certification, and only reported vote totals belong in the results column.
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.
The post UPDATE: Here’s The Latest On Midterm Elections — Polling and Election Results appeared first on 100PercentFedUp.com.
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[H/T 100PercentFedUp]
