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AS OF 11:15 A.M. CENTRAL — TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2026
Election Day is moving, but the congressional scoreboard is not moving yet.
Here is the cleanest possible update one hour after the 10:15 a.m. Central edition: there are still no confirmed House or Senate vote totals, no credible national exit-poll findings, and no congressional race calls.
That is the most important fact in this snapshot.
The material change since the prior hourly update is therefore procedural, not numerical. The Associated Press is continuing its live Election Day coverage, and its voter-survey operation is collecting Election Day interviews in key states, but neither operation has produced a usable congressional result for this 11:15 a.m. Central edition.
No candidate has gained a called seat. No party has recorded a pickup.
No reported-vote leader has been added to either chamber’s total.
The final pre-election polls below remain useful because they show where the pressure is. They do not tell us who won.
Republicans begin the day with 53 Senate seats to 47 members of the Democratic caucus. The GOP can control a 50-50 Senate through Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote, while Democrats need 51 seats.
The House begins at 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and two vacancies. The majority threshold is 218.
That makes this a defense of two narrow Republican majorities — with Senate battlegrounds stretching from Georgia and Michigan to Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio.
The Senate Republican campaign’s Election Day message leaves no doubt about the stakes:
IT’S ELECTION DAY, AMERICA!
Get out, vote, and protect the Majority.
https://t.co/0ZvvxAUA6w pic.twitter.com/rSGBmjyvth
— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) November 3, 2026
PRE-ELECTION POLLING
99chambers lists 583 public Senate polls in its final 2026 database, with pollster identity, sponsorship when applicable, field dates, likely-voter samples, candidate percentages, measured margins, pollster grades based on past performance, and links to the underlying releases. Its newest entries show why one number cannot settle the map: Georgia and Texas received surveys through November 2, Michigan’s final polls range from a narrow two-point Democratic edge to a double-digit advantage, Maine and Ohio contain late readings with opposite leaders, and Alaska sits near an outright tie.
This update uses the newest final poll entry shown for each race. That is a different question from asking which pollster will prove closest to the count.
Late surveys disagree in several battlegrounds. Maine’s newest Emerson College reading shows Republican Sen. Susan Collins narrowly ahead, while the final New York Times/Siena wave showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading.
Ohio’s final Trafalgar reading has Democrat Sherrod Brown slightly ahead, while Emerson showed Republican Sen. Jon Husted ahead.
Those disagreements are not a reason to manufacture certainty. They are the reason every race below remains labeled POLLING ONLY.
GEORGIA SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Research Co. surveyed 450 likely voters from October 31 through November 2.
Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff registered 52%, while Republican Mike Collins had 42%.
That is an Ossoff lead of 10 points in the final poll. Georgia has not reported congressional votes in this snapshot, and no winner has been called.
MICHIGAN SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
John Zogby Strategies surveyed 1,001 likely voters from October 31 through November 2. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed had 51%, and Republican Mike Rogers had 49%.
The two-point gap is much tighter than the final New York Times/Siena result. That spread between late polls keeps Michigan firmly in the turnout-and-count category.
Rogers’ Election Day reminder gives voters the practical deadline: Michigan polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time.
TEXAS SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Research Co.’s October 31-November 2 survey of 450 likely voters found Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46%, a three-point Talarico edge.
Other final Texas polls ranged from a narrow Paxton lead to a larger Talarico advantage. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, and the actual turnout pattern will matter far more than any single survey.
ALASKA SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
InsiderAdvantage’s final October 31-November 1 poll of 1,200 likely voters put Democrat Mary Peltola at 48.3% and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 48.1%.
A two-tenths-of-a-point split is a statistical tie for practical purposes. Alaska’s ranked-choice process can also extend the count if no candidate secures the necessary first-choice support.
IOWA SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
AtlasIntel surveyed 1,219 likely voters from October 28 through November 1. Democrat Josh Turek had 50.5%, and Republican Ashley Hinson had 46.4%.
That is a 4.1-point Turek lead in the final poll. Another late survey showed Hinson ahead, so Iowa remains one of the clearest examples of polling uncertainty rather than a settled outcome.
KANSAS SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
AtlasIntel’s October 28-November 1 survey included 2,038 likely voters. Democrat Adam Hamilton registered 51.9%, while Republican Sen. Roger Marshall had 44.9%.
The seven-point margin is a serious warning for Republicans in a state that normally leans strongly toward the GOP. It is still a survey response, not a Kansas vote count.
MAINE SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Emerson College’s final October 31-November 1 poll of 600 likely voters showed Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 50.6% and Democrat Troy Jackson at 49.4%.
Collins’ measured lead was 1.2 points. Other final polling placed Jackson ahead, and Maine’s ranked-choice system can add another round of tabulation if no candidate clears the first-choice threshold.
OHIO SENATE SPECIAL — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Trafalgar Group surveyed 1,092 likely voters from October 31 through November 1. Democrat Sherrod Brown had 46.6%, while Republican Sen. Jon Husted had 45.1%.
Brown’s 1.5-point lead is inside an ordinary polling-error range. Emerson’s final reading moved the other way, which makes Ohio a race where the first real returns will immediately matter.
THE HOUSE BATTLEGROUNDS
The House fight is not one national contest. It is a collection of district races shaped by local candidates, redrawn lines, regional turnout, and the order in which counties report.
99chambers tracks 323 public House polls in its final 2026 database, listing the pollster, sponsor when applicable, field dates, sample type and size, candidate shares, measured margin, and a link to the original release; its newest entries include the razor-close Alaska at-large survey, Maine’s rural 2nd District, and late tests across Pennsylvania, Arizona, California, Florida, Missouri, Montana, and New Hampshire. The tracker also displays separate model probabilities, but those forecast figures are not used as vote totals here: district polling is thinner than statewide polling, many samples are only a few hundred likely voters, campaign-sponsored releases can be selective, and a national swing can land very differently across districts drawn around sharply different electorates.
Alaska’s at-large seat and Maine’s 2nd District use ranked-choice voting. Pennsylvania’s 7th and 10th Districts are conventional head-to-head contests and sit inside a larger cluster of Republican-held seats under pressure.
Every House race below remains POLLING ONLY.
ALASKA AT-LARGE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
AtlasIntel’s October 28-November 1 poll of 522 likely voters put independent Bill Hill at 46.6% and Republican Rep. Nick Begich III at 46.5%.
That one-tenth-of-a-point difference is functionally even. Ranked-choice transfers may decide the race after first-choice votes are counted.
MAINE 2ND DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
The University of New Hampshire surveyed 793 likely voters from October 27 through October 31. Republican Paul LePage had 52%, and Democrat Matt Dunlap had 47%.
LePage’s five-point advantage is a final poll result, not an election result. The district’s ranked-choice rules remain relevant if the first-choice count does not produce a majority.
PENNSYLVANIA 7TH DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Siena Research Institute reports that its final New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer district surveys found Democrats leading or tied across four Republican-held Pennsylvania seats: Bob Harvie led Brian Fitzpatrick 48%-46% in PA-01, Bob Brooks led Ryan Mackenzie 49%-44% in PA-07, Paige Cognetti led Rob Bresnahan 51%-46% in PA-08, and Janelle Stelson tied Scott Perry 48%-48% after rounding in PA-10. The underlying October 16-22 samples contained roughly 400 likely voters per district, and the precise unrounded values put Perry ahead by only 0.38 points in PA-10 while giving Brooks a 5.10-point edge in PA-07 — useful evidence of a pressured Republican cluster, but nowhere near enough to declare a winner before ballots are counted.
Democrat Bob Brooks registered 49.25%, while Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie had 44.15%. Brooks’ measured advantage was 5.10 points.
PENNSYLVANIA 10TH DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
The same final Pennsylvania series surveyed 404 likely voters from October 16 through October 22. Republican Rep. Scott Perry had 48.03%, and Democrat Janelle Stelson had 47.65%.
Perry’s edge was just 0.38 points. A district that close cannot honestly be described as anything but unresolved before votes arrive.
The House Administration Committee’s Republican majority says approximately 60 Republican staff members are being deployed as official election observers around the country:
EXIT POLLS
NO CREDIBLE NATIONAL EXIT-POLL FINDINGS ARE AVAILABLE YET.
No named network consortium has released usable congressional exit-poll results at 11:15 a.m. Central.
Associated Press says its AP Voter Poll starts with registered-voter files, mail invitations, online or telephone responses, a probability-based SSRS panel, and separately verified participants recruited through the Verasight panel; on Election Day it adds roughly 25,000 in-person interviews at polling places across 15 states, then blends the components to match the estimated electorate. AP says the national survey can describe how groups voted and why, while state findings are available where statewide Senate or governor contests are on the ballot; it is a mixed-method VOTER SURVEY, it does not replace the vote count, and AP says candidate or party toplines will not be reported as though respondents’ answers were official returns.
The interviewing is underway, but AP has not released usable congressional findings for this timestamp. There is nothing responsible to chart here yet.
Any later AP Voter Poll finding must remain separate from both pre-election polling and the actual vote count.
RACE PROJECTIONS / CALLS
NO HOUSE OR SENATE RACE IN THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN PROJECTED OR CALLED.
A race call belongs in this section only. It does not belong in the confirmed-results column, and it is not the same thing as certification.
Associated Press says its decision desk will call all 435 House contests and all 35 Senate races only when analysts determine there is no scenario in which a trailing candidate can close the gap; the process uses actual returns, the geography and type of outstanding ballots, registration and turnout patterns, previous election results, and information about how much vote remains in each area. AP also warns that chamber control may take days when the decisive seats involve close margins, slow mail counts, or ranked-choice tabulation, noting that Senate control took four days to resolve in 2022 and House control took eight; final polling can guide attention, but it does not award a race or certify a result.
Candidate declarations and campaign claims are not race calls. Media calls are not certified finals.
CONFIRMED REPORTED RESULTS
NO CONFIRMED CONGRESSIONAL VOTE TOTALS ARE REPORTING YET.
At 11:15 a.m. Central, every major race covered above has zero reported votes, zero percent reporting, zero calls, and zero confirmed final results.
Associated Press reports that the first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in most of Indiana and Kentucky, followed by Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia at 7; North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30; and Maine and Pennsylvania at 8, when important House districts and the Maine Senate contest move onto the live board. Michigan and Texas begin releasing some votes in the 8 p.m. hour but cannot receive statewide calls until their final polls close at 9, while Arizona holds results until 10 and Alaska’s last Aleutian polling location remains open until 1 a.m. Eastern; AP’s 2024 benchmarks show that some states reached a high reporting level quickly, while Michigan, Maine, Alaska, California, and Washington took substantially longer.
Those closing times make any late-morning claim of a congressional result false.
When vote totals begin, this section will show candidate votes, percentages, reporting level or ballots counted, an exact timestamp, and the election authority or trusted results source.
HOUSE AND SENATE CONTROL DASHBOARDS
SENATE CONTROL: Pre-election baseline: 53 Republicans and 47 members of the Democratic caucus. Control threshold: 50 for Republicans with the vice-presidential tie-break; 51 for Democrats.
Races called: 0. Seats currently leading from reported votes: 0.
Races uncalled: 35. Confirmed pickups: Republican 0, Democratic 0.
HOUSE CONTROL: Pre-election baseline: 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and two vacancies. Majority threshold: 218.
Races called: 0. Seats currently leading from reported votes: 0.
Races uncalled: 435. Confirmed pickups: Republican 0, Democratic 0.
Called seats and current leads have not been combined. There are no reported-vote leaders to add.
The 11:15 a.m. Central verdict is simple: Republicans are defending two narrow majorities in a difficult polling environment, but the election has not produced a congressional result yet.
Polls identify the danger zones.
Ballots decide the winners.
The verified count settles control.
Continue reading...
[ H/T WLT Report ]
