Cook Political Report shifted three key Senate races to the left in Kansas, North Carolina, and New Hampshire on Tuesday as Democrats seek to retake the upper chamber in the midterm elections.
Democrats need to win four Senate seats to gain a net majority, and the election forecaster estimates they can win two to six seats. The general election is four weeks away.
In her analysis, Jessica Taylor of Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” the North Carolina Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat,” and the New Hampshire Senate race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.”
In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is defending his seat from Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton. The race has come into the spotlight more recently because of Hamilton’s strong polling performance in a red state that President Donald Trump won by more than 16 percentage points in 2024. Marshall consistently trails or ties with his opponent, according to the latest polls.
North Carolina sees a much larger lead held by former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in his bid against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Cooper leads by 5-15 points in multiple polls released in the past month.
In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is running against former Republican Sen. and Rep. John Sununu, the brother of former Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. Pappas leads his opponent by 5-8 points, some of the most recent polls show. There were two other polls published last month that showed the two candidates statistically tied.
Cook Political Report is bullish about the Democratic Party’s chances of winning control of the Senate majority next month, citing Trump’s low approval and favorability ratings.
“While Republicans continue to have a financial edge in almost every competitive state, President Donald Trump is a drag across the board even in deep red states due to rising fuel prices and the persistent high cost of living,” Taylor wrote. “At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many.”
SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL SHIFTS ALASKA AND SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE RACES IN FAVOR OF DEMOCRATS
Earlier Tuesday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the competitive Senate races in Alaska and South Carolina toward Democrats. This rating change, combined with the one from Cook Political Report, illustrates the uphill battle that Republicans face in retaining control of Congress.
Trump is trying to boost turnout among Republican voters in November by holding midterm campaign rallies in multiple states, such as Nebraska and Texas.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
