Various branches of the Israeli government are warning that Hamas has prepared for an attack on the third anniversary of the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre, but experts say a meaningful offensive from the broken and battered terrorist group would be difficult.
The Israeli National Security Council issued a travel advisory on Tuesday, warning of an “increased threat of attempts to harm Israelis and Jews abroad, alongside demonstrations and riots.” The NSC requested the public refrain from posting about travel on social media, avoid destinations of concern such as Jordan and Qatar, and not participate in any “demonstrations and large gatherings.”
“Terrorist organizations, and particularly Iran and its proxies, Hamas, and Global Jihad factions, see this date as a significant milestone,” the council said.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, lays a wreath during a state memorial ceremony in memory of those killed in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, at Mount Herzl Cemetery in Jerusalem, Monday, Oct. 5, 2026. (Debbie Hill/Pool Photo via AP) ADDITION: Adds context of memorial ceremony.
" data-large-file="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278401142788.jpg?w=696" src="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278401142788.jpg?w=696" alt="Netanyahu lays wreath" class="wp-image-4756014" style="width:598px;height:auto" srcset="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278401142788.jpg 1024w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278401142788.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278401142788.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278401142788.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278401142788.jpg?resize=696,464 696w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px">
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, lays a wreath during a state memorial ceremony in memory of those killed in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, at Mount Herzl Cemetery in Jerusalem. (Debbie Hill/Pool Photo via AP)
Separately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting Tuesday with members of his Cabinet, repeating his previous warning that Hamas will attack Israel to influence its elections.
“Because Hamas is so weak, it will try to challenge us with the remnants of its forces ahead of the election in an attempt to influence it,” Netanyahu said. “We are prepared for this. First and foremost, we will thwart such attempts, and in any event, we will respond with overwhelming force if they make that mistake.”
David Zini, the director of Israel’s counterintelligence service, Shin Bet, claimed at the meeting that his intelligence officials have observed “very worrying” indicators of terrorist activities among Bedouin enclaves in southern Israel.
Defense Minister Israel Katz, an outspoken proponent of Zionist settlements in the West Bank, was the most bellicose at the meeting, telling the other ministers that “preparations must be made for the possibility of an attack by jihadist elements [in the West Bank] against settlers and [Israeli] soldiers, as a lesson from the events of Oct. 7.”
“In such a case, war would be declared against the Palestinian Authority, and the [Israeli military] would launch a comprehensive offensive in accordance with a detailed plan formulated and approved by Prime Minister Netanyahu and by me, based on the principles outlined for the [Israeli military],” he explained.
Katz warned that such a scenario would result in a “short and forceful war with a clear decision and a change in the reality” including “large-scale evacuation of residents and destruction of terror infrastructure inside the cities and in all refugee camps.”
Israeli soldiers provide security while others pray as part of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, at the site of the Nova music festival where hundreds of revelers were killed and abducted in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack three years prior, near Kibbutz Reim in southern Israel, Friday, Oct. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)
" data-large-file="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511932041.jpg?w=696" src="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511932041.jpg?w=696" alt="IDF soldiers" class="wp-image-4756021" style="width:582px;height:auto" srcset="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511932041.jpg 1024w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511932041.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511932041.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511932041.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511932041.jpg?resize=696,464 696w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px">
Israeli soldiers provide security while others pray as part of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, at the site of the Nova music festival, where hundreds of revelers were killed and abducted in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack three years prior, on Friday, Oct. 2, 2026, near Kibbutz Reim in southern Israel. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)
The Defense Ministry has also instructed military personnel inside Gaza to operate on high alert through Oct. 7 “in light of intelligence regarding Hamas’s intentions to launch attacks against our forces in the area on that day.”
Brian Carter, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who specializes in terrorism and the Middle East, told the Washington Examiner that there is a heightened threat because of the date itself.
“The heightened threat comes from the anniversary, and that’s true of so many of these terrorist groups — look at al Qaeda every year around 9/11,” Carter said. “There is heightened concern about the risk of attacks, and that heightened concern is warranted. But it’s also a matter of ‘What can Hamas do in its … presently degraded state?’ And the answer to that is I just don’t think it’s that much.”
Carter said part of the reason for the massive number of warnings “is certainly Israeli domestic politics leading up to the Israeli elections,” which many voters see as a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the Oct. 7 attacks. Israelis will go to the polls on Oct. 27.
While Hamas still has the “latent capability” to plan “one-off attacks,” including “shootings and those sorts of things, whether that’s in the West Bank or in Israel proper,” Carter doubts that it has the logistical capacity in its current state to “conduct an attack out of the Gaza Strip right now.”
“I think [an attack in the West Bank] is far more likely than Gaza,” Carter said. “They still have networks and cells there that can carry out attacks on settlements, for example.”
Netanyahu has been pushing an alarmist attitude since last month, when he released a campaign video on an Israeli air base warning that the nation’s enemies would stage an attack to disrupt the election.
“There are signs that leading up to the elections, our enemies will try to attack us,” Netanyahu said in the video, speaking Hebrew. “I am sending [enemies] a message: Don’t mess with us. Our long arm will reach you anywhere and at any time.”
The prime minister and his allies took credit for that warning following the attempted hijacking of a Flydubai airplane by an Omani pilot who was ultimately thwarted. But opposition leader Yair Lapid said the information conveyed to him about the pre-election threats had nothing to do with such a scheme.
People visit a memorial made up of the vehicles that were burned and damaged during the Oct. 7 cross-border attack by Hamas militants three years prior, on the outskirts of Netivot in southern Israel, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)
" data-large-file="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511931449.jpg?w=696" src="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511931449.jpg?w=696" alt="Oct 7 memorial" class="wp-image-4756015" srcset="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511931449.jpg 1024w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511931449.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511931449.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511931449.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/AP26278511931449.jpg?resize=696,464 696w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px">
People visit a memorial made up of the vehicles that were burned and damaged during the Oct. 7 cross-border attack by Hamas militants three years prior on Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026, on the outskirts of Netivot in southern Israel. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)
“Nothing that even resembles this morning’s plane incident appeared in last night’s security update with the Prime Minister,” Lapid said in a statement after the incident. “Not similar, not reminiscent, not even hinted at. All the spin that the megaphones are doing now only proves what was already clear yesterday—that they’re once again trying to do cheap politics at the expense of Israel’s security.”
DSA GROUPS WALK BACK POST CALLING OCT. 7 ‘RESISTANCE AGAINST IMPERIALISM’
The Oct. 27 elections are viewed as a dead heat between an alliance led by Netanyahu and one led by rival Gadi Eisenkot.
Neither bloc is polling at levels that would allow them to form a government without Arab parties’ support, meaning the minority ethnic groups could end up becoming kingmakers.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
