The details of Friday’s jobs report for October show that it was even stronger than the headline numbers indicated, even though they showed that a robust 165,000 payroll jobs were added and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Read on to learn what the new statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics say about how the economy fared under President Donald Trump heading into the fall.
Job growth soared above what’s needed
Because of upward revisions to the numbers for August and September, the three-month moving average of job gains rose to 137,000. It’s helpful to look at the average because the numbers jump around from month to month.
The pace of job creation is more than enough to keep up with population growth and to keep unemployment trending down.
Perhaps fewer than 10,000 new jobs a month are needed, thanks in large part to Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration.
The overall employment rate is up
Overall employment rates are near record highs, a sign of economic strength.
The employment-to-population for prime-age workers is, in some ways, a better marker of the health of the labor market than the unemployment rate. It held at 80.7% in the month.
The headline unemployment rate, in contrast, applies only to people who are actively looking for work. The employment-to-population ratio includes everyone, so it would reflect people who have given up looking for jobs because they can’t find one.
This statistic shows that, whatever the problems with the U.S. economy, the jobs outlook is not bad.
There is no sign of a recession looming
Friday’s report contains no warning signs that a recession is coming.
Recessions entail a rising unemployment rate, and unemployment was down in the month.
The statistics are not signaling one major recession indicator — namely, when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises half a percentage point relative to its minimum point over the past year. This indicator, known as the Sahm Rule, signaled the start of all post-war recessions.
The indicator was briefly triggered in mid-2024, but it is not signaling a recession right now.
Federal government employment has dropped under Trump
The Trump administration has cut the federal workforce.
The reduction in federal payrolls has hurt the overall job numbers for Trump’s tenure, but it is a positive from the White House team’s point of view.
Federal employment dropped by 1,000 in October and is now down about 333,000 since Trump came into office.
Manufacturing employment has now recovered under Trump
Trump has focused on reviving manufacturing employment, including by imposing large tariffs on trading partners. The number of factory jobs fell for much of his term, but now is above where it was when he took office.
Manufacturing employment was up 19,000 in October and is up 8,000 since Trump came into office.
Construction employment shows few signs of trouble
Construction is a key sector to watch for signs of trouble in housing. The homebuilding industry has been at risk in recent years because of soaring prices and higher mortgage rates, which have kept some buyers on the sidelines. The sector is also under pressure from Trump’s tariffs and his immigration overhauls.
Construction employment fell 3,000 in October, but it’s been mostly steady during Trump’s second term.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
