Republican Ken Paxton heads into the final stretch of his pivotal Senate race without having closed a GOP enthusiasm gap that’s complicating his path to victory and the party’s control of the upper chamber.
Near-unanimous support for Democrat James Talarico within his party and a sizable chunk of GOP crossovers offer a window into the state representative’s minor, although steady, edge in the polls as Paxton continues to struggle with coalescing Republicans. Polling consistently puts him at under 90% among Republicans, leaving on the table crucial voters who either pick Talarico or decline to side with either candidate.
Some Republicans, President Donald Trump among them, are already Monday morning quarterbacking a potential loss by pointing the finger at Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) for his nominal support of Paxton after the Texas attorney general ousted the longtime incumbent with a Trump-backed primary challenge.
Trump accused Cornyn and veteran GOP political operative Karl Rove, both of whom have expressed doubts about Paxton, of “doing everything possible” to hurt the Republican nominee.
“They are hurting Texas and, more importantly, hurting the United States of America!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Thursday. “If Ken Paxton loses, it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove, who have ineffectively opposed me for my entire political career.”
There’s no love lost between Cornyn and Paxton from what was the most bitter GOP primary of the cycle, which ended with a Trump endorsement of Paxton and a decisive runoff win. Cornyn consistently called Paxton a “crook,” “corrupt,” and morally unfit for office over past allegations related to an indictment, impeachment, and divorce. Paxton accused Cornyn of lacking a single legislative achievement in his more than two decades as a Texas senator and of being insufficiently loyal to the party and to Trump.
Other Republicans and pollsters see the numbers as a glaring warning that Paxton has failed to address how to overcome the deficit adequately.
“Give me a f***ing break,” said a Texas GOP operative closely monitoring the race, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “They want to blame Cornyn for everything they don’t like and everything they’re unhappy about. Got nothing to do with that … Ken has done absolutely nothing — literally, like not one thing — to address any of his weaknesses with the broader electorate in the general election. Not one thing,” they added, citing a lack of candidate debates or addressing past and present coverage of his personal and political baggage.
At least a half-dozen polls over the past month have Talarico with a lead, often within the margin of error, and tell a similar story of Paxton struggling to win over at least 10% of his own party. In the red-leaning Lone Star State, those voters could otherwise likely seal the deal for Paxton to stave off what would be the first Democratic statewide win since 1994.
In one poll, Talarico led 48% to Paxton’s 44% with backing from 92% of Democrats and 7% Republicans. Paxton had 87% support from Republicans and 2% from Democrats.
In another, in which Talarico led 50% to 44%, 98% of Democrats sided with Talarico and 9% Republicans, compared to Paxton’s 87% of Republicans and less than 1% Democrats.
A third showed Talarico leading 47% to 46% with 99% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans. Paxton had 84% of Republicans and zero percent Democrats.
Yet another had Paxton down 43% to Talarico’s 49%. Talarico had 98% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans, while Paxton had 87% of Republicans and zero percent Democrats.
The ominous numbers suggest Paxton has not sufficiently sought to coalesce all factions of the Republican Party and has had an even harder time peeling off any Democrats, something Cornyn was able to do during his four electoral victories.
Winning over Democrats won’t likely be key to Paxton’s victory, but his lack of crossover support could make him sweat on election night if he’s unable to bring Republican voters home in the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, Talarico has made direct appeals to Republican voters and frustrated Cornyn supporters. It’s a strategy he wasted little time in embracing when he first made the pitch in the minutes after Paxton ousted the incumbent in a primary runoff. The Democrat hasn’t let up since, even amid his own controversies, including disappearing from the campaign trail for a week and a half with the flu and being panned by Republicans for policy flip-flops to make a broader appeal to more centrist Texans.
“I don’t want people to vote just against Ken Paxton. I want them to vote for me,” Talarico told attendees this week at a CNN and Jubilee town hall. “I want them to know my values and my vision.”
Texas Attorney General and Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton smiles as Vice President JD Vance speaks during a campaign rally at Tyler Pounds Regional Airport in Tyler, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026. (Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP, File)
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Texas Attorney General and Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton smiles as Vice President JD Vance speaks during a campaign rally at Tyler Pounds Regional Airport in Tyler, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026. (Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP, File)
A recent Fox News survey showed roughly one-fifth, 22%, of those who identify as “non-MAGA Republicans” intended to vote for Talarico, who led the poll overall with 51% to Paxton’s 49%.
DOES ANYONE WANT TO WIN THIS RACE? TALARICO AND PAXTON STUMBLE TO FINISH LINE IN TEXAS SENATE CONTEST
“The data speaks for itself,” said veteran pollster Clifford Young, a visiting professor of political science at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service. “Broad context, Republicans are not doing as well from an enthusiasm standpoint. And more specifically, Paxton isn’t the best product when you consider candidates.”
Talarico leads Paxton by 2.7 points in the RealClearPolitics national average.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
