Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed the ratings for 28 House races on Tuesday, pushing the number of seats that are rated “leans Democratic” past 218.
The changes come two weeks before the midterm elections, which will determine whether Democrats retake control of the House from Republicans.
Right now, the election forecaster has 223 congressional districts in the “leans Democratic” category and 200 seats in the “leans Republican” group, and 12 races marked as “toss-ups.”
At least 218 seats are needed for a majority. Republicans hold a slim majority with 218 members plus Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-CA), totaling 219 effective votes.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball says its team sees Democrats getting close to 235 seats, which was the number of seats that Democrats won in the 2018 midterm elections. A similar scenario could play out in the soon-to-be 2026 elections. Both years mark the halfway point for President Donald Trump’s nonconsecutive terms.
“While it would be foolish to completely close the door on a shocker—both 2020 and 2022 were surprising years in the House in which Democrats in the former and then Republicans in the latter underperformed our own pre-election expectations—the trend toward a more substantially-sized Democratic House majority seems clear,” the election forecaster wrote in an article on its website run by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
“What that would actually mean in terms of seats remains a question mark,” the election forecaster wrote. “A good measuring stick is 2018, when Democrats ended up winning 235 House seats. Forced to choose today, we probably wouldn’t quite put the Democrats there, but we think they’ll get close to that number and could exceed it.”
Of the latest House rating changes, nine races were shifted from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.” These include races for the districts held by Reps. Zach Nunn (R-IA), Scott Perry (R-PA), and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI).
Additionally, six contests were moved from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” Among this list, two races are open. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) is retiring at the end of his term, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is running for the Senate instead.
Meanwhile, six races were shifted from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican” and another six were moved from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.”
ELEVEN MORE SEATS SHIFT TOWARD DEMOCRATS, INCLUDING THREE IN PREVIOUSLY SAFE RED AREAS, MAJOR PROJECTION SHOWS
In the last House ratings change published on its website, Sabato’s Crystal Ball classified 214 districts as “leans Democratic,” 201 seats as “leans Republican,” and 20 races as “toss-ups.”
With two weeks left before Nov. 3, Sabato’s Crystal Ball could release another round of House ratings changes. If it does, the predictions won’t likely bode well for congressional Republicans.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
