With the midterm elections less than 20 days away, Republicans are shifting their spending strategy and narrowing in on key races they think they can win. Republican leaders are continuing to be bullish on growing their majority on Nov. 3, but their spending suggests they are shifting from their goal of growing their congressional majority to holding the line.
According to new Federal Election Commission filings, Republican super PACs aligned with President Donald Trump are redirecting spending away from their broad map. They are pulling back from a handful of battleground House races and the North Carolina and Georgia Senate races, instead targeting key Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Alaska.
Steve Cortes, head of the League of American Workers and former Trump advance senior adviser, told the Daily Signal that this has already been the strategy for some of the biggest outside groups because they “don’t believe the House is salvageable.”
“It seems like the Trump PACs are now coming around with that same point of view, and that these resources into the final days are much better spent on trying to save the Senate,” Cortes continued. “I don’t think it’s going to be some massive, massive wave because I just think these are the districts are drawn so scientifically now that there’s just not that many truly competitive seats, but I think there’s clearly enough to give the Democrats the House,” he said.
“But in the case of the statewide Senate races, in particular, you know, we believe that the Democrats have given us openings in races that probably shouldn’t be winnable for us, but they nominated really radical, really unlikable, and just frankly unimpressive candidates in these races,” Cortes said.
Historically, Democrats have outspent Republicans in Senate elections, but this is an unusual year in which Republicans are far outspending Democrats, especially super PACs.
“Money alone doesn’t win, but it sure doesn’t hurt, and it’s going to give us a chance, I think, to save the Senate in an otherwise tough environment,” Cortes continued.
Another anomaly in this election is who is doing the spending. Republican-led super PACs are far outraising Democratic-led PACs, a “flip from the norm” as Cortes says.
“Normally, our candidates do better, but then we get crushed on the outside line,” he continued, referring to the outside groups.
But this year Republican groups are doing the candidates’ fundraising and spending, rather than the candidates themselves. Cortes says this could be because of Trump. MAGA Inc. began the cycle with over $400 million in the bank to spend. With Trump in office, it made it easier for him to raise the money that might otherwise have gone directly to the candidates.
The States MAGA Is Pouring Money Into
MAGA Inc. is continuing to spend heavily in Texas. It recently dropped large digital ad buys in the Senate race where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico. In two weeks, the Trump super PAC spent over $10 million on Paxton. A GOP official told Politico it wasn’t done yet and planned to spend at least another $5 million this week.
According to RealClearPolitics polling, the Texas Senate race is neck and neck. While the most recent poll shows Paxton up by one point, a majority of recent polls show Talarico up by one.
No Going Back, reportedly funded by MAGA Inc., is also Senate-focused. According to recent FEC filings, it is on a $5 million TV ad-buy streak in Ohio, making two $5 million ad buys in a row. Republican Sen. Jon Husted is up against Sherrod Brown and is in one of the top three Senate races in the country, one that Trump officials seem to be keeping their money on. No Going Back has spent roughly $20 million opposing Brown and over $7 million supporting Husted since September.
The same group is simultaneously spending between $4 million and nearly $5 million a week in Michigan, where former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. This week’s filings reported another ad buy of over $2 million. They are doubling down in Michigan, spending nearly $20 million opposing El-Sayed and just over $3 million in support of Rogers since September.
Pulling Back Spending
While the Senate Leadership Fund, led by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, led by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, are continuing to spend to support Republicans across the map, Trump super PACs are pulling back from House races and going on defense in Georgia and North Carolina Senate races.
No Going Back originally reserved over $1 million in an advance ad buy in North Carolina to support Republican Michael Whatley but has pulled back as support for Democrat Roy Cooper grows.
It originally spent about $6.5 million through mid-September, but in the first week of October that fell to $156,000 and to $5,000 this week.
House races where MAGA Inc. and No Going Back have readjusted spending include NJ-07, IA-01, MI-08, NV-03, FL-25, and OH-01.
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[ H/T The Daily Signal ]
