Quebec’s independence party, Parti Québécois, won the largest share of the vote for the first time in 12 years, paving the way for another possible referendum in the near future.
The victory wasn’t straightforward, however. PQ is projected to win 59 of 127 seats, falling five short of the 64 needed to obtain a majority in the National Assembly of Quebec, significantly constraining its ability to govern. The party’s larger share of the vote is also believed to have been brought about through a surge of protest votes, dissatisfied with the governing Coalition Avenir Québec. The coalition enjoyed massive support for two terms, winning reelection in a landslide just four years ago, but saw a catastrophic collapse in support this time around. It is now poised to win zero seats.
Parti Quebecois supporters cheer as results come in at PQ headquarters on election night in Montreal, Quebec on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press via AP)
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Parti Quebecois supporters cheer as results come in at PQ headquarters on election night in Montreal, Quebec on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press via AP)
The governing Coalition Avenir Québec, an autonomist party that held power for two terms and was reelected in a landslide four years ago, suffered a total collapse in its support. It is poised to win zero seats, compared to 71% of seats in 2022.
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon voiced cautious optimism in his victory speech, implicitly acknowledging his weak position by avoiding talks of outright independence, instead arguing for the democratic righteousness of a referendum.
“A referendum is an opportunity to decide for yourself,” he said. “It’s an act of democracy. It’s up to no one but us, as a people, to determine our national future.”
On actually calling a referendum, he said one would be called, “hopefully, with the help of other pro-independence lawmakers from other parties.”
The issue of independence took a backseat role in the National Assembly election, with the main issues being cost-of-living increases, the trade war with the United States, and healthcare.
In a display of President Donald Trump’s continued dominance of Canadian politics, St-Pierre Plamondon pledged during the campaign that an independence referendum would only be called after Trump exited office.
The Quebecois independence movement currently stands as a shadow of its former self, a far cry from the nail-biting results of the last referendum in 1995, which saw the pro-independence cause defeated by just 54,288 votes with a 93.54% voter turnout. As with the 1980 referendum, the 1995 referendum was called by the PQ.
Dedicated Quebecois separatists see their cause as a fading possibility. While the growing affluence of French Canadians has played a role in independence’s dampening appeal, the biggest factor is the massive changes brought about by unparalleled mass immigration. Canada’s new arrivals are far less likely to favor independence than native French Canadians, something borne out on Monday, when areas with higher immigrant populations favored parties against independence, such as the federalist Quebec Liberal Party, which came in second overall.
Many Quebecois independence activists view the demographic tide as increasingly against them, and believe a near-future referendum may be their last shot at separation from Canada, according to the New York Times.
St-Pierre Plamondon also has to contend with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s popularity in Quebec. He pledged to “collaborate” with Carney in debates, and a welcoming message from the premier indicated he isn’t too worried.
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“Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada,” Carney said in a post on social media, after congratulating St-Pierre Plamondon on his victory. “I look forward to working with you to support Québec’s businesses and workers impacted by tariffs, create more good jobs, work to end homelessness, and get more homes built across Québec.”
While outright independence isn’t likely, the presence of a pro-independence party in power could create further strain within Canada as it grapples with a difficult international position. The results came just weeks before Alberta is set to hold its own independence referendum.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
