With less than a month until Election Day, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are entering a competitive final stretch in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
Polling on the race shows that Talarico’s lead over Paxton has narrowed since July, with the latest UT/Texas Politics Project poll showing that Talarico leads Paxton by 3 percentage points. However, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Another poll conducted by UMass Lowell and YouGov released earlier this month showed Paxton and Talarico tied at 45%. Seven percent of respondents were undecided, 2% said they would vote for Libertarian Ted Brown, and 1% said they would not vote.
In June, polling from UT/Texas Politics Project showed Paxton was slightly leading Talarico 43%-42%. The race appeared to have shifted in July when Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico leading Paxton 45%-40%.
In August, Texas Southern University’s poll showed Talarico maintaining a 2-point lead.
As of now, the RealClearPolitics average has Talarico at 48.2% and Paxton at 46%.
Key Issues for Texas Voters
Among the issues driving voters are the cost of living, with 68% saying it is extremely important, followed by President Donald Trump’s presidency at 48%, immigration at 47%, and artificial intelligence at 34%.
A Fox News poll shows Talarico holding a 19-point advantage among voters on the cost of living, an 18-point advantage on artificial intelligence, and a 6-point advantage on Trump.
Among Texas voters who said immigration is an “extremely important” issue, Paxton held a 20-point advantage.
Paxton has emphasized strong border enforcement and support for Trump’s immigration agenda, while Talarico has called for more Border Patrol agents, immigration judges, surveillance, and technology.
On cost of living, Talarico’s campaign has focused on rebuilding labor unions, canceling medical debt, preventing hospitals from overcharging patients, and raising the federal minimum wage to more than $15 an hour.
Paxton’s campaign has emphasized tax cuts and doubling the child tax credit as ways to provide relief to families.
Fundraising and Outside Spending
Federal Election Commission data through June 30 shows that Talarico had raised $68.6 million and spent $47 million. His campaign reported raising $30 million during the second quarter.
Talarico’s largest donors have been in Travis County and out-of-state donors in California and New York, according to The Texas Tribune.
Meanwhile, Paxton has received a boost in recent months, raising more than $18 million in the third quarter. Trump’s MAGA Inc. gave Paxton $10 million, while the Senate Majority Fund began supporting Paxton in September by transferring $75 million to a Texas PAC created specifically to support his campaign.
Campaign Trail Activity
Paxton has continued to campaign heavily, with Trump making multiple appearances alongside him. The president has made several trips to Texas and held the Republican National Committee’s Midterm Convention in Dallas.
Talarico has held smaller grassroots rallies around Texas and traveled to California and New York for fundraisers.
One notable development occurred late last month when Talarico was absent from the campaign trail for nearly two weeks, leading to speculation about his whereabouts. One theory claimed that Talarico was in a psychiatric care facility in Ohio.
There has been no evidence that Talarico was in a psychiatric care facility. His campaign said he was sick with the flu.
The race remains highly competitive. Texas voters are focused heavily on economic concerns and immigration, while both campaigns are relying on rallies, fundraising, and outside spending to reach voters in the final weeks.
With three weeks left until Election Day, the race could ultimately come down to which candidate is able to persuade undecided and independent voters and turn them out on Nov. 3.
Early voting in Texas runs from Oct. 19 through Oct. 30.
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[ H/T The Daily Signal ]
