Democrats are enjoying a sizable lead in the latest midterm polls, but troubling numbers buried in a new survey suggest the party could struggle to turn its advantage into victories on Election Day.
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 44% on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. However, the survey also exposes a potentially costly enthusiasm problem among several voting blocs Democrats are counting on to deliver control of Congress.
Younger voters, minorities and college-educated white women are showing considerably less excitement about heading to the polls than President Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters.
Just 42% of likely voters under 45 described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared with 68% of MAGA voters.
Enthusiasm was also relatively subdued among nonwhite voters, with 53% expressing strong excitement about casting a ballot. Among college-educated white women, that figure stood at 56%.
All three groups registered disapproval of Trump’s job performance, raising questions about whether opposition to the president will be enough to motivate Democratic-leaning voters to show up on Election Day.
Republicans have also erased the Democrats’ previous advantage when it comes to following the midterm elections closely.
Among registered voters, 46% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans said they were following the elections very closely. Just one month earlier, Democrats held a 42% to 34% advantage on that question.
The survey also uncovered a notable lack of confidence among Democratic voters about their party’s prospects.
Although 98% of Democratic likely voters said they intended to support their party’s congressional candidate, just 81% believed that candidate would actually win.
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That 17-point difference was considerably larger than the 10-point gap recorded among Republican voters.
The findings suggest Democrats remain considerably less confident about their electoral prospects than their overwhelming support for their own candidates might indicate.
The warning signs come despite the president’s underwater approval ratings, which Democrats have sought to exploit throughout the campaign.
According to the Marist poll, 40% of likely voters approved of Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapproved.
The president’s personal favorability numbers were slightly worse, with 37% holding a positive opinion of him compared with 58% who viewed him negatively.
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Trump also remains a major factor in voters’ congressional preferences.
The survey found that 44% of likely voters said their congressional vote would be cast in opposition to the president, more than double the 21% who said they would vote to express support for him.
Those numbers offer encouragement to Democrats looking to reclaim congressional power. But weaker enthusiasm among certain voting blocs and lingering doubts among their own supporters could complicate that effort.
The latest polls also show that Democrats’ advantage has narrowed among registered voters, falling from 12 points in September to 10 points in October.
With Election Day just one week away, the findings underscore the importance of turnout in determining whether Democrats can translate their polling advantage into congressional gains.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll surveyed 1,289 registered voters nationwide Oct. 19-20. The margin of error among likely voters was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
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[ H/T Trending Politics ]
