Republicans have a bright spot in an Echelon Insights poll as voters head to the polls Tuesday. According to the firm’s final midterm survey, Americans were more likely to say their neighbors would vote Republican than Democratic.
The finding offers an encouraging wrinkle for the GOP in a survey that otherwise gave Democrats the advantage on the congressional ballot and in expectations about control of Congress.
Asked to guess how their neighbors would vote in the midterms, 40% picked Republican candidates, compared with 37% who chose Democrats. Another 23% were unsure.
That three-point Republican edge stood in contrast to respondents’ own congressional preferences, which favored Democrats 50% to 45%.
The difference between those two margins was eight percentage points in the GOP’s favor. It reflects answers to separate questions, however, rather than a shift in support over time.
Echelon conducted the survey Oct. 15-19 and published its October release Oct. 20. The findings provide a snapshot from the closing weeks of the campaign, rather than a measurement of an Election Day surge.
The neighborhood question produced the only Republican advantage among the four measures highlighted in the pollster’s graphic.
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When asked which party would control the House after the election, 47% expected Democrats to prevail, compared with 33% who picked Republicans. Another 20% were unsure.
That 14-point gap measured expectations about which party would control the chamber. It was not the Democratic lead on the congressional ballot.
Expectations for the Senate were closer, with 41% predicting Democratic control and 36% expecting Republicans to prevail. Twenty-three percent were unsure.
But when the question moved from the national outcome to the people living around them, respondents gave Republicans the edge.
The finding gives GOP supporters a favorable detail to watch as returns arrive, though guesses about neighbors’ ballots do not establish how those neighbors actually voted or predict which party will win Congress.
The nationwide survey included 1,010 registered voters in the likely electorate and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
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