Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories about precious metals and the overall economy. This week, we’ll cover:
- Gold’s climb toward $4,400 (before the inflation reports arrived)
- Brent Johnson’s argument that gold can “win” even if the dollar stays strong
- Why one ton of discarded cellphones contains less than five ounces of gold
Gold moved before the inflation excuses arrived
Gold’s latest move tells us something important – partly because of what happened, and partly because of when it happened.
Via Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg reported that gold touched $4,400 an ounce as traders turned their attention to the upcoming U.S. inflation report.
That timing matters.
Gold was already pushing near $4,400 before the July Consumer Price Index report came out. It then continued moving after the data arrived, as traders interpreted the inflation numbers as reducing the likelihood of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.
Gold climbed to a more-than-two-month high following the July CPI report, which showed prices rising 0.1% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. The Producer Price Index report followed the next day. The BLS said final demand prices were unchanged in July, while producer prices were up 4.7% over the prior year.
Now, those reports were important. Inflation data always matter when the Fed is debating whether to hold rates steady or raise them again.
But the move in gold did not begin with the CPI report.That is the part I want you to notice.
The usual explanation is tidy:
Inflation comes in softer than feared. Rate-hike expectations fall. The dollar weakens. Gold rises.
That sequence is not wrong, exactly, but it’s incomplete.
Gold had already been climbing before the data gave commentators a clean explanation. That suggests the metal’s move may not be reducible to one inflation print or one trading headline.
It looks more like the continuation of a broader repricing.
Gold’s rise is bigger than one data point
This has been the pattern for several years.
Gold rises. Commentators look for the nearest headline. Then they explain the move as if that headline caused everything.
It’s an inflation report, or a jobs report, or a shift in the dollar, an FOMC meeting or a geopolitical surprise.
Any one of those can move gold over a day, or a week. But none of them fully explains the scale of the move we have seen since gold traded near $1,650 in 2022.
The longer-term drivers are more structural, long-term trends:
- Persistent inflation pressure
- Large and growing government debt
- Central-bank reserve diversification
- Rising geopolitical uncertainty
- Questions about the dollar’s purchasing power
- Growing interest in physical assets (rather than debt-based claims)
Those kinds of forces do not appear and vanish with one CPI report.
They build over time.
Reuters reported on August 17 that gold climbed again as the dollar weakened and rate-hike expectations continued to fade. Yes, that makes sense as far as it goes.
But the more interesting line in that report came from the broader outlook. Softer employment data, inflation still above target and a Fed that may hesitate to tighten further create the sort of uneasy backdrop gold tends to notice. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, according to the Associated Press.
That is not insignificant. And it tells us the Fed is caught between two unpleasant risks.
Raise rates to fight inflation, and the labor market may weaken further.
Hold rates steady, and inflation may remain too high.
It’s the kind of “heads we lose, tails we lose” situation that central bankers fear. And it’s an unpleasant position for families trying to preserve savings.
The Fed’s dilemma is gold’s tailwind
Gold is often described as a hedge against inflation.
That is true in a broad sense, but it can mislead people into expecting gold to move perfectly with every inflation report. (It doesn’t.)
Gold is better understood as a hedge against monetary uncertainty. Sometimes that uncertainty comes from inflation. But it can also come from debt, from currency demand, from the broad economy… Sometimes it comes from the simple fact that central bankers seem to have no easy way out of the situation they’ve created.
The Fed’s challenge today is not merely whether CPI rose 0.1% or 0.2% in a given month. The challenge is that inflation remains well above the Fed’s target, even though parts of the economy show signs of strain or slowdown.
That is why a small change in one report should not be treated as the whole story.
Gold’s climb toward $4,400 before the inflation reports arrived is a useful reminder: The price of gold may be reacting to something much larger than the latest statistical release.
It may be reacting to a growing recognition that the dollar’s purchasing power problem has not been solved.
The dollar does not have to “die” for gold to win
Brent Johnson, founder of Santiago Capital and author of the “Dollar Milkshake” thesis, recently made a point that gold owners should take seriously: The dollar does not have to collapse for gold to perform well.
Johnson’s argument is not the usual “dollar doom” story, and it’s worth exploring.
He believes the dollar can remain strong against other currencies because so much global debt and trade still depends on dollars. (True.) Foreign borrowers need dollars to service dollar-linked obligations. (Also true. In fact, much of the developing world borrows in dollars, because lenders don’t particularly trust the stability of, say, the Thai baht or the Kenyan shilling.) When the dollar rises, that can create stress outside the United States.
In other words, a strong dollar can be a problem rather than a solution. Especially for debtors.
That is a genuinely useful distinction.
A currency can be strong against other currencies and still lose purchasing power here at home.
The dollar may outperform the yen, yuan or euro while still buying less food, less housing, less insurance and less medical care for our families.
That is why gold and the dollar are not always simple opposites. The dollar can rise when other currencies are being inflated faster.
Gold can rise because savers and central banks are losing confidence in the broader paper-money system and decide to buy gold bullion.
Both can happen at the same time.
Reserve currency dominance is not a single scoreboard
There is one point in Johnson’s discussion that needs careful wording.
The dollar has not simply “lost” its reserve-currency role.
The dollar remains deeply embedded in the global financial system. But official reserves are changing, and gold’s role has grown significantly.
The European Central Bank reported that gold accounted for 27% of total official foreign reserves at the end of 2025, surpassing both the euro’s 15% share and U.S. government debt’s 22% share.
That is a remarkable development. I’ve been talking about it since the lines crossed in October 2025.
Still, this doesn’t mean the dollar is irrelevant. Central banks have not abandoned dollar assets altogether.
Regardless, this shift is important. Gold now occupies a larger place in official reserves than it did for many years. The World Gold Council’s 2026 central-bank survey found that 89% of reserve managers expect global central-bank gold holdings to increase over the next year, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to buy gold.
That is not the behavior of institutions that believe gold is obsolete! I believe central banks can see the same thing many households feel daily:
The dollar may remain dominant in the global financial system while still losing purchasing power over time.
This isn’t a contradiction. As my colleague Phillip Patrick might say, “The dollar is still the ‘cleanest dirty shirt.’ That doesn’t mean it smells good.”
Gold isn’t waiting for a dollar collapse
Johnson’s analysis is valuable because it avoids a common trap. Too many people, even otherwise thoughtful and insightful analysts, think the case for gold requires a catastrophic dollar collapse.
Nonsense!
You don’t have to believe the dollar is going to zero to understand why diversifying with physical gold can be beneficial.
You only have to recognize that the dollar’s purchasing power has been eroding for generations. And there’s no serious conversation about a solution. No calls for a return to the gold standard, no Congressional attempts to increase revenue or balance the budget. No, instead, we’ve seen the opposite from our elected leaders and unelected technocrats.
And don’t forget this vital point: The Fed targets 2% inflation over the longer run. That “successful” outcome means prices keep rising over time. These increases compound, too, and, like Einstein allegedly said, compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. The math is brutal:
- At 2% annual inflation, prices rise roughly 49% over 20 years
- At 3%, they rise more than 80%
- At 4%, they more than double
This is a kind of math that sends investors in search of an inflation-resistant investment.
Gold does not need the dollar to disappear.
It only needs the dollar to keep doing what it has already been doing – losing purchasing power a little at a time, year after year.
One ton of discarded phones still yields less than five ounces of gold
The third story this week seems small at first. I want to convince you that it isn’t.
The Economic Times recently reported on research showing that one metric ton of discarded mobile phones may contain as much as 141 grams of gold. The underlying study was published in the Journal of Cleaner Production.
The Economic Times article says one metric ton of discarded mobile phones can contain as much as 141 grams of gold – about 4.5 troy ounces. At first glance, that sounds almost comically small. Thousands of dead phones, and the gold would fit in one hand.
But from a mining perspective, 141 grams per ton is not small at all. It is extraordinarily rich. Many commercial gold deposits are mined at grades measured in single-digit grams per ton. The phones are not poor ore. They are urban ore – unusually concentrated, but scattered across drawers, landfills, recycling centers and supply chains.
That distinction matters. Recycling can recover real value, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper and rare earth elements. It can help supplement supply and reduce waste. Recovering valuable metals from electronic waste is a good idea! (Not that I want to get involved in the industry myself.) It means we can reduce reliance on steady imports of refined rare-earth metals like neodymium, yttrium, terbium, europium, dysprosium and others almost exclusively mined and refined in China. It’s smart make better use of materials already above ground.
But it does not make physical gold easy to obtain. The challenge moves from geology to logistics. Instead of finding ore underground, the recycler must collect thousands of devices, separate tiny components, process them safely and recover metals efficiently.
Here’s the take-away: Even one of the richest above-ground sources of recoverable gold still requires enormous effort to produce just a few ounces of the physical metal.
That is the point worth remembering. Whether mined from rock or recovered from electronics, physical gold does not appear because someone creates a new contract, token or account entry. It has to be found, gathered, processed and refined.
Mining is productive – but not elastic
The same scarcity shows up in mining.
The World Gold Council says mined gold production reached a record high in 2025, with global miners producing 3,672 tonnes. (For comparison purposes, gold demand in 2025 set a new record over 5,000 metric tons.)
Mine production hasn’t exactly been declining since 2011.
Gold is still being mined. In fact, mine output remains significant. But that does not mean supply can expand quickly.
The World Gold Council’s Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends report said total gold supply held steady at 1,269 tonnes in the second quarter. Mine production rose 2% year over year, while recycling fell 6%.
That is the key point.
Even at record production levels, new gold supply moves slowly.
A gold mine is not a factory that can double output next month because the price went up. New production requires exploration, permitting, financing, construction, equipment, labor and years of operational risk. The World Gold Council has also warned that longer-term challenges around finding, permitting, financing and building new large-scale mining projects continue. I was surprised to learn that it takes, on average, almost 16 years to go from discovery to actually mining ore. That’s if the billions of dollars in financing for equipment and labor can be secured…
This is what makes gold different from digital claims on gold.
A claim, whether it’s a futures contract or a digital token, can be created instantly. There’s absolutely no theoretical limit for the number of promises, claims or contracts that can be constructed on the slim foundation of a single bar of gold.
Physical gold cannot be created instantly with a spreadsheet, a contract or a handshake.
The scarcity of physical gold is the point
Modern finance has spent decades making gold easier to “trade” without requiring anyone to handle much actual metal.
There are contracts, claims, tokens, funds and account statements. Now, some of those products may be useful for certain purposes. A gold miner, for example, could sell next month’s expected output in advance and use the proceeds to fund further mining.
Let’s be very clear, though: Claims are not the same as physical gold.
Any sort of claim on gold can be multiplied far more easily than gold itself.
That is why the phone-recycling story caught my attention. It drags the whole discussion back into the stubborn old real world.
One ton of discarded phones contain a little less than five ounces of gold. It’s there, even if it isn’t easy to access and recover.
Mining new gold, on the other hand, is slow, expensive and difficult to expand.
Recycling helps, but it does not suddenly flood the world with bullion.
Remember one thing: Gold’s scarcity is not a slogan. It is a physical constraint of the real world.
And physical constraints matter when the financial system increasingly relies on immaterial promises that can be created with a few keystrokes.
The more digital the world gets, the more physical gold matters
There is an irony here.
The world keeps becoming more digital.
Money moves through phones. Accounts live on screens. Payments happen through apps. Even gold is increasingly represented by tokens and electronic claims.
Yet the more abstract money becomes, the more important the underlying physical reality may become.
A digital claim can be useful.
But it is still a claim.
Physical gold is the thing itself.
That does not mean every ounce must be stored personally. Secure storage, insurance and professional custody all have a place, depending on a family’s situation.
But the distinction between owning gold and owning a representation of gold should not be blurred.
If your access depends entirely on a platform, issuer, exchange, vault operator or legal intermediary, then you do not have the same relationship to the asset as someone who can take possession of physical coins or bars.
That difference may not matter on an ordinary Tuesday.
It can matter very much when systems are under stress.
Three stories, one lesson
Gold’s move toward $4,400 before the inflation reports arrived shows that the metal’s rise may be bigger than one month’s data.
Brent Johnson’s argument shows that gold can perform even if the dollar remains strong against other currencies.
The cellphone-recycling story shows how hard physical gold is to obtain, even in a world overflowing with electronic devices.
Different stories.
Same lesson.
Gold’s role is not built on one CPI report, one currency forecast or one recycling breakthrough.
It is built on scarcity, history and the persistent weakness of paper money’s purchasing power.
That does not mean gold rises every week.
It does not mean gold is immune to corrections.
It does not mean anyone should chase a price chart.
But it does mean physical precious metals continue to offer something distinct: tangible savings outside the promises, policies and abstractions of the financial system.
Gold does not need a dramatic explanation every time it moves.
Sometimes the explanation is simpler.
Maybe the world is slowly remembering what physical scarcity is worth.
The dollar buys less today than it did a year ago, a decade ago, a generation ago. That slide is the predictable result of endless printing and borrowing. Dr. Ron Paul believes the FED has the answer. But they’re keeping it to themselves. Fortunately, a new financial chart has publicly exposed their secret moves. See it for yourself: https://freekit.birchgold.com/lf/ro...D_v02a_article&placement=article&cid=rp_media
To learn more about how physical gold could help protect your retirement portfolio, click here to get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group. And now introducing a Crypto IRA to capitalize on the fastest growing market in the world.
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