Black voters in North Carolina are casting early ballots at a significantly faster pace than in the past two midterm cycles, providing a potentially encouraging sign for Democrats as they fight to hold a congressional district that Republicans redrew to favor the GOP.
More than 279,688 black voters have cast a ballot as of Thursday, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections. At this point in 2022 and 2018, the early-voting number among black people stood around roughly 170,000, according to data provided by the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation’s Brendan Higgins. North Carolina is one of the few states that reports race and Hispanic ethnicity data in early-voting totals.
The 2026 data shows a more than 60% increase in ballots cast by black voters compared with the same point in 2022. In North Carolina, black voters have accounted for 22% of all early ballots cast, despite making up roughly 19% of the state’s registered electorate.
The totals remain below those recorded in the presidential election years of 2020 and 2024, though turnout is typically higher when the White House is on the ballot. At this point in 2020, 571,804 ballots had been cast by black voters, while 407,761 were cast in 2024. Democrats lost North Carolina to President Donald Trump in both elections, but Democrats also won the governor’s race.
The increase in black voter turnout this cycle comes after North Carolina Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map in 2025 to create an additional GOP-leaning seat. They did so by reshaping the 1st Congressional District represented by Rep. Don Davis (D-NC), which had a sizable black population. The new configuration moved several counties with substantial black populations into a neighboring Republican district while adding more conservative-leaning coastal counties to Davis’s seat. The GOP holds 10 out of 14 seats in North Carolina.
The redistricting reduced the black share of the 1st District’s voting-age population from roughly 40% to 32%, according to the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation. It also significantly changed the political makeup of the district, which President Donald Trump carried with about 51% of the vote in 2024. Under the new boundaries, Trump would have received roughly 55% of the vote.
A spokesperson for Davis told the Washington Examiner the campaign “absolutely” feels it’s a good sign that black voter turnout is exceeding 2022 totals, but said, “we are going to continue to go after every single vote and run through the tape.”
The statewide figures do not show how many of those ballots were cast in Davis’s district or whether the increase will be enough to offset its newly Republican-leaning electorate.
Still, it’s a positive sign for Democrats, who are betting on strong turnout among traditionally Democratic-leaning voters to help counter Republican redistricting efforts in North Carolina and other battleground states.
The turnout surge comes amid a broader nationwide battle over race and redistricting, following an April Supreme Court ruling that struck down a Louisiana congressional map drawn to create a second majority-black district. North Carolina’s Republican-led legislature approved its new map months before that decision.
Democrats contend that Republican efforts to redraw congressional boundaries could ultimately backfire by energizing black voters who believe their political influence is being diminished.
“Republicans tried to dismantle the Black Belt in their desperate mid-decade gerrymandering scheme — Black voters are saying no,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Madison Andrus said in a statement. “Black North Carolinians were never going to stand for this blatant attack on their voting rights. Now they are making their voices heard in record numbers and are set to reject Republicans’ extreme, cost-raising agenda at every level.”
Davis is facing GOP nominee and retired Army colonel Laurie Buckhout in the November elections. In an interview with the Washington Examiner last week, Buckhout expressed optimism about her chances in the district, saying in recent internal polling, she came out 1 point ahead of Davis.
“I came out 1 point ahead in a purposefully sort of a pessimistic look because I wanted to know where all the weak spots were,” Buckhout explained. “So we’re pretty darn excited. We feel good about it. I think the race is in a very good place right now.”
The district is rated as a toss-up with a partisan voting index of R+5.
Reginald Fischer, a 70-year-old Black retiree from New Bern, told the Washington Examiner last week that the rising cost of living is his top concern this year. But he also criticized partisan redistricting, saying, “Anytime they do redistricting just to favor either party, I don’t care for that.”
North Carolina also has a competitive Senate race this cycle, with former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley facing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. An analysis by the Associated Press found that early voting has significantly increased in states with competitive Senate contests.
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Outside of North Carolina, early voting has also surged in Kansas, Texas, Maine, and Ohio, according to the outlet’s analysis.
Democratic voters are outpacing Republicans in early voting across states that track registration by party, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. While party registration does not indicate how voters cast their ballots, more than 5 million registered Democrats have voted so far, compared with about 3 million Republicans.
In North Carolina alone, over 535,000 registered Democrats have already voted, compared with approximately 296,000 Republicans. But Republicans have traditionally relied more heavily on Election Day voting, meaning the early numbers provide an incomplete picture of the electorate heading into November.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
