Democrats have a fight on their hands in a House district they can hardly afford to lose. A new poll puts a Republican challenger just ahead of the Democratic incumbent in southwest Washington.
The survey by DHM Research, commissioned by Oregon Public Broadcasting, puts John Braun at 46% and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez at 44% among likely voters in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District. Another 11% initially remained undecided.
After undecided respondents were asked which way they leaned, Braun came in at 48% to Gluesenkamp Perez’s 47%, with 5% still unsure. Both gaps fall within the survey’s 4.2-percentage-point margin of error, leaving the race effectively tied.
The likely-voter results come from 543 respondents surveyed September 17-27. They give Republicans an opening against a sitting Democrat, but they do not establish a clear lead or prove that either candidate has gained ground since an earlier poll.
Washington’s 3rd congressional district
John Braun: 48%
MGP (Inc): 47%
This would be aD ->R Flip
DMH Research poll | 9/17-9/27 pic.twitter.com/CQk87L6sXV
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 1, 2026
In the same survey, 61% of likely voters said Washington was on the wrong track. Affordability and high taxes topped the open-ended responses about the state’s biggest problems, while healthcare mattered to 89% of likely voters.
On his campaign website, John Braun pitches a combination of military service, manufacturing experience and opposition to higher taxes. He describes 31 years in the Navy and his work leading Braun Northwest, a Chehalis manufacturer that builds emergency vehicles.
His economic platform calls for less regulation, expanded energy production and restraint in federal spending. He also emphasizes manufacturing jobs and support for law enforcement, tying those priorities to his argument that Washington families need more room in their budgets.
That is a pitch aimed directly at the pocketbook concerns running through this survey. It still leaves Braun with the task of persuading voters that his proposals would improve their lives.
Healthcare is part of that contest, too. In an October 1 campaign post, Braun highlighted a Community Health Champion award and his support for community health centers:
According to Oregon Public Broadcasting, Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign attributes the close contest partly to increased Republican-aligned outside spending. OPB reported that No Going Back PAC, a super PAC tied to President Trump, had spent about $1.7 million in the race.
Democratic groups’ outside spending totaled roughly $354,000 as of September 30, the outlet reported, citing federal filings. Those figures describe outside groups, rather than the candidates’ own campaign spending.
The district has voted for President Trump three times, but it also elected Gluesenkamp Perez in 2022 and returned her to Congress in 2024. She has already demonstrated that a Democrat can win here.
Braun, the state Senate Republican leader, now has the president’s endorsement. OPB reported that the Cook Political Report rates the contest a toss-up, placing it among the competitive races that could shape control of the House.
The fight over money has spilled into the candidates’ own campaigning. On October 1, Gluesenkamp Perez accused Braun of choosing a fundraiser with House Speaker Mike Johnson over meeting constituents:
For Republicans, the opportunity is real. So is the work still required to turn a close poll into a win.
Democrats cannot count this seat as safely theirs. And with neither candidate reaching 50% in the survey, both campaigns still have voters to convince.
What are your thoughts?
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This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.
The post Democrats Get A Rude Surprise In Must-Win House Race appeared first on 100PercentFedUp.com.
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