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Paul LePage is closing strong in Maine amid a torrent of fraud cases that festered under the state’s Democrat trifecta.
Republican former Gov. Paul LePage leads Democrat Matt Dunlap 52% to 47% among likely voters in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, according to the University of New Hampshire Survey Center's final Pine Tree State Poll. One percent back another candidate, and 1% are undecided.
‘Former Republican Governor Paul LePage has opened a small lead in Maine’s Second Congressional District.’
Six weeks ago, the outlook was dire for Republicans.
Dunlap led LePage 51% to 45% in UNH's September survey. In just over a month, LePage has swung the projected outcome 11 points in his favor. UNH’s final poll was conducted less than a week before Election Day.
Democrats aren’t the ones bolstering LePage’s lead. Ninety-nine percent of Democrats remain in lockstep with Dunlap, according to the poll.
LePage, however, has reached 97% support among Republicans. Dunlap boasts 62% of independents, but it hasn’t been enough to stave off the polling landslide in recent weeks.
RELATED: Maine got robbed under Democrat Matt Dunlap's nose. Now he's running for Congress.
Dunlap's image has also taken a hit amid both reports of fraud and forthcoming prosecutions for alleged fraudsters, many of whom are Somali.
Thirty percent of likely 2nd District voters view Dunlap favorably, and 49% view him unfavorably. With those numbers, Dunlap is 19 points under water when it comes to favorability.
He was at +4 in the September poll. Sixteen percent of likely voters feel neutrally toward him, and 5% don't know enough about him to say.
LePage’s favorability ratings aren’t spectacular either, but they have trended in the right direction. Forty-five percent of likely voters view him favorably and 52% unfavorably, a net 7 favorability rating. That's a seven-point improvement since September, whereas Dunlap’s favorability has collapsed 23 points since UNH’s previous poll.
"Former Republican Governor Paul LePage has opened a small lead in Maine's Second Congressional District," UNH said in a poll summary.
The university surveyed 1,722 Maine residents via online form from Oct. 27 to Oct. 31, 2026. The 2nd District sample included 802 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The poll isn’t a handout to Republicans. Other statewide candidates don't fare as well as LePage.
Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) 54% to 45% among likely voters, the October poll found. Collins trailed by 4 points in September. Her net favorability is -15, according to UNH. Jackson sits at -1 overall. Most Mainers still think Collins will win anyway, according to UNH.
Collins has a history of outperforming polls.
The now five-term incumbent senator trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in every independent public poll of the 2020 race, according to the Bangor Daily News. Quinnipiac gave Gideon a 12-point advantage as late as mid-September. Closer to Election Day, Collins sat 5.5 points behind Gideon, according to RealClearPolitics.
Collins ended up winning re-election by around 8 points.
“Democrats have effectively nationalized this election as a referendum on President Trump, and Democratic voters are more interested and motivated than Republicans,” UNH said.
LePage seems to have succeeded in making his race a referendum on State Auditor Matt Dunlap.
Blaze News' Poll Watch average has LePage leading Dunlap by 1.9 points.
The LePage and Dunlap campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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[H/T Blaze Media]
