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Carney says Canada has prepped for an ‘extreme tail risk’ of US military action

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said President Donald Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st state prompted him to prepare for a possible American invasion, though he acknowledged it was an unlikely outcome.

In a wide-ranging interview with the New York Times, Carney offered a closer look at how he has navigated strained relations between Canada and the U.S. The prime minister was pressed on how he took Trump’s remarks about Canada becoming the 51st state in the union.

“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told the outlet, adding that he was doing “risk management,” and it would be “irresponsible” to sit on his hands.

Trump’s annexation rhetoric began when he returned to office in 2024, first making the comment to Carney’s predecessor, former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

Now, Carney’s comments come amid a broader deterioration in relations between the longtime allies, which imposed tariffs on each other’s goods after trade talks broke down last month. The U.S. has imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $28 billion in Canadian goods, prompting Canada to respond with matching tariffs on American products.

The dispute escalated again this month when Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect. Trump responded by blocking imports of alcohol, dairy, and some motorcycles, accusing Ottawa of discriminating against U.S. production.

Despite the tariffs and broken-down negotiations, Carney said he has continued speaking with Trump.

“From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” Carney told the outlet Wednesday. “He’s direct. I’m direct in terms of where positions are. It’s much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.”

Additionally, Carney discussed pressure he is facing at home to limit a sensitive export, energy, to U.S. in the trade conflict. The prime minister did not rule out the possibility, but said Canada wants to be a “reliable” energy partner.

“If you’re a reliable partner and you supply energy or food to somebody it keeps running, it’s a very, very, very high threshold to change that,” he said. “Never say never, but it starts from a position of, we need to be a reliable supplier in all cases.”

The strained relationship has also pushed Carney to explore Canada’s relationship with Europe. Last week, Carney embraced the possibility of becoming an “associate partner” with the European Union, which he claimed would make the country a “better partner” to the U.S.

TRUMP IS FIGHTING CANADA ON TRADE — SO WHY ARE WE LETTING IT ROB OUR WATERS

Trump scoffed at the idea, saying it would be considered a “very hostile act” and calling it “laughable.”

Throughout Carney’s interview, he also laid out the ways in which Canada is striving to be less dependent on the U.S, noting that he wants to shift from reliance on Starlink satellites and the American defense agency.

Continue reading...

[ H/T Washington Examiner ]

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