Farm-state Republicans have coalesced around a new winning message for November: a federal ban on American companies exporting diesel around the world. Resurrecting the 1970s’ failed energy policies would be a disaster and replicate a COVID-19-level shock to global supply chains.
It’s no secret that Republican strategists are getting increasingly worried about polls from middle America. Ohio is upside down, Iowa is a toss-up, and Kansas has entered the peripheral.
A warmed-over Jimmy Carter-era economic policy isn’t the silver bullet to save the Republican Party’s electoral chances just 40 or so days out from the midterm elections.
Despite the promises of cheaper gas prices, history tells a different story. Export controls did not solve the energy crisis of the 1970s. Price controls and trade restrictions made shortages worse, distorted investment, and taught the world that American energy policy could change on a dime. Repeating that experiment with diesel, the fuel that moves harvests, freight, and factories, would not deliver cheaper diesel in Iowa by Election Day.
American refineries produce around 5 million barrels of diesel every day. We consume around 3.5 million barrels of diesel a day. The remainder doesn’t disappear into thin air. We sell it across the world. Furthermore, pipelines and energy infrastructure can’t be built overnight. The majority of diesel is produced in the Midwest and Gulf Coast region. An export ban would maroon diesel where it is already plentiful and not necessarily where it is needed.
The American Flag flies next to a One9 Fuel Stop sign displaying gas prices for diesel and unleaded gas in Wilmington, Ohio, Wednesday, June 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
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The American Flag flies next to a One9 Fuel Stop sign displaying gas prices for diesel and unleaded gas on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, in Wilmington, Ohio. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
The United States does not possess the infrastructure to store the domestic diesel supply indefinitely nor distribute it across the country, thanks in part to the Jones Act. Production would either decrease or, even worse, the market could flash back to COVID-19’s negative West Texas Intermediate moment, when sellers had to pay buyers to take WTI off their hands.
The same lesson applies to politicians looking for catchy slogans to win a few votes before a contentious election. Diesel is priced in a world market. Diesel prices already reflect what buyers in Europe, Latin America, and Asia will pay for it. Removing America’s supply from the world market will have a catastrophic impact.
Unilaterally disarming our diesel exports would remove 20% of the world’s traded overseas diesel supply, essentially overnight, and devastate global supply chains that increasingly rely on American energy exports to fuel the world’s economy. Refineries across the world would shift to producing more diesel at the expense of other petroleum products, such as car and jet fuel, thus driving up costs for everyone. Prices would naturally rise, and uncertainty over whether diesel will be where it’s needed, when it’s needed, would skyrocket and likely tank the stock market.
It would also strengthen Russia’s hand. If the U.S. cuts off its diesel exports to Europe, many nations will return to funding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine to simply avoid freezing this winter.
Banning diesel exports would open yet another front in the trade wars that have already devastated American farmers, this time with Mexico. The U.S. exports more than 76 million barrels of diesel to Mexico every year. This adds up to almost half of all the diesel Mexico consumes. Cut this off overnight, and Mexico will respond by not buying American produce. There will be another trade war in the Western Hemisphere, with America’s farmers paying the price.
TRUMP ENDORSES DIESEL EXPORT BAN
An atrophied Congress has allowed the executive branch to walk all over it for almost two decades. Weeks out from the midterm elections, the legislative branch again looks to the executive branch for government intervention rather than exercising the power the Founding Fathers entrusted to it.
A diesel ban won’t save Republicans’ bacon in the Midwest. It may even make the midterm elections worse.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
