President Vladimir Putin almost certainly wishes that President Donald Trump had not invited him to attend the Group of 20 summit in December. The Russian leader has good reasons to avoid Miami. That said, if Putin skips the summit at Trump’s Doral hotel, he risks alienating the president.
The Kremlin recognizes as much, a reality reflected by Putin’s failure to announce what he plans to do. Putin’s central concern with Trump’s solicitation is how it catches him between risking international embarrassment and offending the American president.
Mikhail Rostovsky of the Kremlin-aligned Moskovskij Komsomolets tabloid underlined these risks in a column last Thursday. He noted that Putin’s travel to Miami would be “completely unnecessary and even harmful” unless the Ukraine war was resolved. That’s because “Putin doesn’t need a show at all. As he has said many times, he needs a military victory … with subsequent negotiations on [the post-war situation] in a purely business-like style.” The columnist warned that other attending leaders would seek to embarrass the Russian leader. “In addition,” Rostovsky concludes, “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky will certainly rush to Florida, [Zelensky] has long dreamed of putting on a show under the code name ‘Ukrainian David meets Russian Goliath.’ Why Putin needs such a show is completely incomprehensible.”
These are significant concerns for Putin. The Russian leader is hyperfixated on political optics. At home, Putin is fixated on appearing as a leader in total control, as a statesman who is globally respected and feared. Abroad, Putin wants to present the image of a leader who is equal to any other and who commands complete respect. Yet, with the G20 leaders of Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom all avowedly pro-Ukraine, Putin’s attendance in Miami would risk numerous possibilities for uncomfortable confrontations. And video footage of Putin being perceived as an isolated, embarrassed outsider.
In that same vein, there is no way Trump could invite Putin to Miami without also extending an invitation to Zelensky. To do otherwise would greatly damage American moral credibility, jeopardize any future prospect of a successful peace accord, and likely lead to a boycott of the summit by numerous other nations. Nor is there any way that Zelensky would avoid publicly challenging Putin to hold a bilateral meeting, or otherwise drawing attention to Ukraine’s plight.
Considering that this summit will be held right on the cusp of the brutally cold Ukrainian winter, Russia will almost certainly be lobbing drones and ballistic missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure as the G20 occurs (Putin wants to drain Ukraine’s resolve by freezing its population). Scenes of freezing Ukrainian families will not gel well for Russia alongside Putin’s smiling face in the Florida sun.
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Of course, absent his presence at the G20, Putin places himself in jeopardy of Trump’s wrath. Unlike most presidents, Trump values public shows of international respect to his person as a preeminent American foreign policy concern. Trump has also shown Putin significant latitude in avoiding the imposition of truly crippling sanctions on Russia as he pursues a peace deal. But were Trump to perceive Putin as having snubbed him, especially after extending this invitation amid the major opposition of key allies, he might then adopt a maximum pressure strategy toward Russia.
Putin will likely view the risks of going to Miami as too great. He is likely to remain in Moscow. But his absence will carry clear risks of its own. Trump’s ego, after all, is not insignificant.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
