Guest Post by Fred Hickey
Such a huge week coming up – last week of July heading into the seasonally weaker Aug.-mid Oct. period for stocks – as more of the market’s generals (MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL) report results. Last week was problematic for the bulls as the prior favorites stumbled (Alphabet lost nearly $300 billion in one day) despite reporting earnings “beats” (except Tesla – which missed and saw its stock plunge 18% last week).
Intel ‘s EPS doubled the analysts’ estimates and its stock soared 8% in the after-market only to see it lose all the gains and much more -closing down 8% on Friday. Signs of exhaustion in the most overpriced and over-crowded stock market in U.S. history?
Will any of the hyperscalers even hint of capex spending slowdowns given GOOGL’s rough treatment last week?
Will Apple’s Q3 guidance disappoint given they’ve indicated there will be steep price hikes coming in September (likely pulling in sales from the second half into Q2) and the price increases will cause some customers to hold onto their phones longer?
Will reports out of Asia that Apple’s foldable phone availability will initially be limited due to production hiccups cause any heartburn? Indications are that AAPL’s service revenue growth (including from the Apple Store) has already slowed. What about Apple’s margins? DRAM & NAND makers’ soaring margins are the result of skyrocketing memory prices.
Companies such as Apple and Dell are getting hit with the higher costs- but Dell has an AI server business offset. Apple does not. So, was crowding into Apple last week at 11 times sales and a 40+ P/E a wise choice or a recipe for disaster? Seems to me AAPL wasn’t the best “safe haven” choice for investors refusing to give up their bull market dreams.
And let’s not forget the Mideast war (not going well), soaring oil and products (gasoline and diesel) prices and climbing bond yields – typically not positive developments for tech stocks or the overall market.
Yep, it could be a very interesting week.
Tweet
Continue reading...
[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
Such a huge week coming up – last week of July heading into the seasonally weaker Aug.-mid Oct. period for stocks – as more of the market’s generals (MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL) report results. Last week was problematic for the bulls as the prior favorites stumbled (Alphabet lost nearly $300 billion in one day) despite reporting earnings “beats” (except Tesla – which missed and saw its stock plunge 18% last week).
Intel ‘s EPS doubled the analysts’ estimates and its stock soared 8% in the after-market only to see it lose all the gains and much more -closing down 8% on Friday. Signs of exhaustion in the most overpriced and over-crowded stock market in U.S. history?
Will any of the hyperscalers even hint of capex spending slowdowns given GOOGL’s rough treatment last week?
Will Apple’s Q3 guidance disappoint given they’ve indicated there will be steep price hikes coming in September (likely pulling in sales from the second half into Q2) and the price increases will cause some customers to hold onto their phones longer?
Will reports out of Asia that Apple’s foldable phone availability will initially be limited due to production hiccups cause any heartburn? Indications are that AAPL’s service revenue growth (including from the Apple Store) has already slowed. What about Apple’s margins? DRAM & NAND makers’ soaring margins are the result of skyrocketing memory prices.
Companies such as Apple and Dell are getting hit with the higher costs- but Dell has an AI server business offset. Apple does not. So, was crowding into Apple last week at 11 times sales and a 40+ P/E a wise choice or a recipe for disaster? Seems to me AAPL wasn’t the best “safe haven” choice for investors refusing to give up their bull market dreams.
And let’s not forget the Mideast war (not going well), soaring oil and products (gasoline and diesel) prices and climbing bond yields – typically not positive developments for tech stocks or the overall market.
Yep, it could be a very interesting week.
Tweet
Continue reading...
[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
