The polling is done, the last ads have been bought, and the last text messages have been sent. Voters are voting. Now all we can do is wait and watch. But what should we be watching?
The first polls to close in tight races are in South Carolina and Georgia at 7 p.m. Eastern. If the race between Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) and Democrat Annie Andrews is tight, or if Andrews is ahead, expect a bad night for Republicans.
The same goes if Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms jumps ahead of Rick Jackson in the Georgia governor’s race. Democrats can lose both these races and still have a good night. If Republicans lose these early contests, we are talking about an electoral catastrophe of biblical proportions.
At 7:30 p.m., Ohio’s polls close, giving us an early look at whether Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) will overcome the odds to beat former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and whether Republican Vivek Ramaswamy can defeat Democrat Amy Acton. Brown has run a strong campaign, and Ramaswamy has run a terrible one, so reading too much into these races nationally might be a mistake. But if Democrats comfortably win both, it is going to be a bad night for Republicans.
At 8 p.m., Maine’s polls close for the race between Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Democrat Troy Jackson. Collins has repeatedly outperformed her polling in past elections, so it would not be a big surprise if she pulled out another win, this time against Jackson, who currently leads in most polls. If Jackson, an extremely flawed candidate, beats Collins, we are looking at a very bad night for Republicans nationally.
Also at 8 p.m., the polls finally close in Florida’s western Panhandle, meaning we will start to get some real results from the governor’s race pitting Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) against Democrat David Jolly. Donalds should win this race somewhat easily. If Jolly wins, it will be an early sign of a Democratic wave.
At 9 p.m., the last polls close in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Texas, giving us the clearest picture yet of the battle for the Senate. Republicans need Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) to beat Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa. They also need Sens. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Pete Ricketts (R-NE), along with Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee in Texas, to hold their states. Democrats need Abdul el Sayed in Michigan and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota to hold theirs.
If Republicans sweep their four states and pick off either Michigan or Minnesota, they can breathe easier. If Democrats hold their two and start winning in Kansas, Nebraska, or Texas, Republicans will be watching their Senate majority slip away.
DEMOCRATS SIMPLY DON’T BELIEVE IN AMERICA ANYMORE
By this point, we should know whether we are looking at a Democratic tsunami or a tight battle for control of the Senate. Alaska’s final polls don’t close until 1 a.m. Wednesday, and considering the state’s ranked choice voting system, it is highly unlikely we will know the results from that race until Wednesday afternoon at the earliest.
Republicans will spend the early evening looking for signs that the polls were wrong and the late evening hoping Alaska won’t decide their fate. Democrats will be looking for a wave big enough to settle the question before bedtime. Keep the coffee, or booze, handy.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
