AS OF 1:05 P.M. CENTRAL — TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2026
Election Day is moving fast. The congressional scoreboard is not moving yet.
One hour and 50 minutes after our 11:15 a.m. Central update, the honest answer remains the same: no confirmed House or Senate vote totals are reporting, no credible national exit-poll findings have been released, and no congressional race has been called.
Polling measures a sample. A voter survey describes the electorate.
A projection is a media decision. A reported result is an actual count.
Those four things are not interchangeable, and this update will not pretend they are.
The material change since the prior hourly edition is procedural: the Associated Press has now set 5 p.m. Eastern — 4 p.m. Central — as the first scheduled release time for findings from its new AP Voter Poll. Until that release arrives, there is no credible voter-survey result to chart.
Republicans enter the count defending a 53-47 Senate majority and a 219-214 House edge, with two House vacancies. Democrats need 51 Senate seats to control the chamber.
Republicans can control a 50-50 Senate through Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. The House majority line is 218.
The Senate Republican campaign put the stakes directly to voters as polls opened:
IT’S ELECTION DAY, AMERICA!
Get out, vote, and protect the Majority.
️ https://t.co/0ZvvxAUA6w pic.twitter.com/rSGBmjyvth
— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) November 3, 2026
PRE-ELECTION POLLING
99chambers preserves the final public polling entries with pollster identity, sponsor when disclosed, field dates, sample type and size, candidate shares, measured margin, pollster history, and links to underlying releases. Its final Senate database shows surveys continuing through November 2 in Georgia and Texas, while its House files show much thinner district-level polling with samples often limited to a few hundred likely voters and fewer recent measurements than the statewide contests.
The tracker also keeps raw survey responses separate from model probabilities, allowing this update to compare actual poll answers without turning a forecast into a result.
Its newest entries show why one number cannot settle the map: Georgia has a double-digit Democratic reading, Alaska is separated by two-tenths of a point, Michigan’s last entries range from close to comfortable for Democrats, and late surveys in Maine and Ohio disagree on the leader; field dates and sample sizes remain attached to every figure below so readers can see exactly what was measured before voting ended.
RealClearPolling shows the same late disagreement across the battlegrounds: its November 2 list includes New York Times/Siena, AtlasIntel, Trafalgar, Emerson and other final surveys, with Maine ranging from a narrow Susan Collins advantage to a wider Troy Jackson lead, Michigan ranging from a two-point Abdul El-Sayed edge to double digits, and Texas ranging from a tie to a larger James Talarico advantage. Those gaps reflect different field dates, samples and methods rather than counted ballots, so the responsible use of the list is to identify pressure points and uncertainty before returns arrive; every candidate number below remains POLLING ONLY, and no average, individual survey or forecast has been relabeled as a vote result.
No poll below is a vote result. No margin below is a declared outcome.
GEORGIA SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Research Co.’s October 31-November 2 final survey included 450 likely voters. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff registered 52%, while Republican Mike Collins had 42%.
That is an Ossoff margin of 10 points in the final survey.
Georgia’s actual count has not started reporting in this snapshot. The poll identifies pressure on Republicans; it does not award Ossoff a seat.
MICHIGAN SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
John Zogby Strategies surveyed 1,001 likely voters from October 31 through November 2. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed had 51% to Republican Mike Rogers’ 49%.
That two-point margin is dramatically tighter than the final New York Times/Siena reading. Michigan remains a turnout-and-count contest, not a settled result.
TEXAS SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Research Co.’s October 31-November 2 poll of 450 likely voters found Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46%, a three-point Talarico edge.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Late polls disagree, and the state’s real returns — not a sample — will determine whether that streak survives.
OHIO SENATE SPECIAL — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Trafalgar Group surveyed 1,092 likely voters from October 31 through November 1. Democrat Sherrod Brown had 46.6%, while Republican Sen. Jon Husted had 45.1%.
Brown’s 1.5-point edge sits inside ordinary polling uncertainty. Other final Ohio polling moved the other way, making this one of the first major tests when real votes arrive.
ALASKA SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
InsiderAdvantage’s October 31-November 1 final survey of 1,200 likely voters put Democrat Mary Peltola at 48.3% and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 48.1%.
A two-tenths-of-a-point difference is a practical tie. Alaska’s ranked-choice process can also extend the tabulation if no candidate secures the needed first-choice support.
IOWA SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
AtlasIntel surveyed 1,219 likely voters from October 28 through November 1. Democrat Josh Turek had 50.5%, while Republican Ashley Hinson had 46.4%, a 4.1-point Turek advantage.
Another late survey placed Hinson ahead. Iowa is a clean warning against treating one final poll as destiny.
KANSAS SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
AtlasIntel’s October 28-November 1 survey included 2,038 likely voters. Democrat Adam Hamilton registered 51.9%, and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall had 44.9%.
A seven-point Democratic polling lead in Kansas is a flashing warning light for the GOP. It remains a warning light — not a counted ballot.
MAINE SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.
Emerson College’s October 31-November 1 poll of 600 likely voters showed Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 50.6% and Democrat Troy Jackson at 49.4%.
Other final polls had Jackson ahead. Maine’s ranked-choice rules can require additional tabulation if no candidate wins a first-choice majority, so patience may matter even after returns begin.
THE HOUSE BATTLEGROUNDS
The House fight is not one national race. It is 435 district contests shaped by local candidates, redrawn lines, regional turnout, and the order in which counties release returns.
Siena Research Institute reports that its final New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer district surveys showed Democrats leading three Republican-held Pennsylvania seats and a near-tie in a fourth. Each survey ran October 16-22 with roughly 400 likely voters, making every result useful but uncertain.
PENNSYLVANIA 1ST DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY. Among 400 likely voters, Democrat Bob Harvie had 48.26% and Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick had 45.83%, a 2.43-point Harvie edge.
PENNSYLVANIA 7TH DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY. Among 401 likely voters, Democrat Bob Brooks had 49.25% and Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie had 44.15%, a 5.10-point Brooks advantage.
PENNSYLVANIA 8TH DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY. Among 402 likely voters, Democrat Paige Cognetti had 50.53% and Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan had 46.48%, a 4.05-point Cognetti lead.
PENNSYLVANIA 10TH DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY. Among 404 likely voters, Republican Rep. Scott Perry had 48.03% and Democrat Janelle Stelson had 47.65%, a 0.38-point Perry edge.
That cluster shows the size of the Republican challenge. It also shows why a national generic ballot cannot be converted into a district result.
PA-10 is essentially even in the final survey, while the other three Republican-held seats show different levels of pressure.
The House Administration Committee’s Republican majority says roughly 60 Republican staff members are deployed as official election observers around the country:
EXIT POLLS AND VOTER SURVEYS
NO CREDIBLE NATIONAL EXIT-POLL OR VOTER-SURVEY FINDINGS ARE AVAILABLE YET.
Associated Press says its AP Voter Poll is a mixed-method VOTER SURVEY, not a simple election-day exit poll. It combines roughly 75,000 pre-election interviews gathered by mail, phone, text, online panels and voter-file sampling with about 25,000 in-person polling-place interviews in 15 states on Election Day.
AP says the first findings are scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern, or 4 p.m. Central. The survey can explain which groups voted, what issues drove them, and why they made their choices.
It does not replace the vote count, and AP says it will not publish candidate or party toplines as though survey answers were official returns.
Because no findings have been released at this timestamp, there is nothing responsible to chart in this section.
RACE PROJECTIONS / CALLS
NO HOUSE OR SENATE RACE IN THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN PROJECTED OR CALLED.
Associated Press says the first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in most of Indiana and Kentucky. Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia follow at 7 p.m.; North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30; and Maine, Pennsylvania and many other states at 8.
Michigan and Texas begin releasing some votes in the 8 p.m. Eastern hour, but statewide winners cannot be called until final polling places close at 9. Arizona holds results until 10, and Alaska’s last Aleutian polling location stays open until 1 a.m. Eastern.
A media call belongs here only. It is not a certified final result, and a candidate declaration is not a race call.
CONFIRMED REPORTED RESULTS
NO CONFIRMED CONGRESSIONAL VOTE TOTALS ARE REPORTING YET.
At 1:05 p.m. Central, every major race covered above has zero reported votes, zero percent reporting, zero calls, and zero confirmed final results.
When returns begin, this section will show actual candidate vote totals, percentages, reporting levels or ballots counted, an exact as-of timestamp, and the official election authority or trusted results source. A projection will remain separate from the count.
HOUSE AND SENATE CONTROL DASHBOARDS
SENATE CONTROL: Pre-election baseline: 53 Republicans and 47 members of the Democratic caucus. Control threshold: 50 for Republicans with the vice-presidential tie-break; 51 for Democrats.
Races called: 0. Seats currently leading from reported votes: 0.
Races uncalled: 35. Confirmed pickups: Republican 0, Democratic 0.
HOUSE CONTROL: Pre-election baseline: 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats and two vacancies. Majority threshold: 218.
Races called: 0. Seats currently leading from reported votes: 0.
Races uncalled: 435. Confirmed pickups: Republican 0, Democratic 0.
Called seats and current leads have not been combined. There are no reported-vote leaders to add.
The 1:05 p.m. Central verdict is blunt: Republicans are defending two narrow majorities in a hostile polling environment, but the country has not produced a congressional result yet.
Polls show where the danger lies.
Voters decide who wins.
The verified count settles control.
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.
The post UPDATE: Here’s The Latest On Midterm Elections — Polling and Election Results appeared first on 100PercentFedUp.com.
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[H/T 100PercentFedUp]
