Guest Post by Gold & Geopolitics
In 1958 Mao Zedong found out who was stealing China’s grain.
Sparrows. Each one ate about two kilos of grain a year, according to the Party. Multiply that by every sparrow in China and you’ve found why every granary sat empty in the country.
source
So China declared a war on sparrows.
Everybody joined in. An estimated three million people banged pots, pans, drums and gongs for days in Beijing alone so the birds could never land.
They flew until they dropped out of the sky. Nests were torn down, eggs smashed, the stragglers shot.
Prussia had tried the same thing in the 1700s and got an outbreak of pests for its trouble. It’s always good to know your history…
Roughly two billion dead sparrows later, the crop output dropped by about a fifth. Because what else do sparrows eat? Insects, in particular: locusts. Rice borers (稻 rice 螟 borer)… That eat rice. Hence the name.
In 1960 Mao Zedong quietly signed a peace treaty.
Officially, no apology has ever been given to the sparrows.
Sixty-eight years later, a Republican explained like only Politburo people can why bombing Iran before the midterms actually makes sense: “it would look like the President got a win”, and “gas prices would start coming down”.
So… Let me see if I get this right, shall we? The plan to lower the price of oil… Is… bombing the oil?? Ok, makes sense, I guess…
The EIA did check by the way. As it turns out, crude generally goes up when the US strikes after a pause. Details… Details… Pesky little details…
Now the President and his party have an election coming up. And between you and me, I feel like this one should be a clear home run for the other side of the Uniparty, but we know how much they LOOOOVE to throw around hate and microaggressions… So… not very clear who will win.
Either way, the other partner to this dance (or as some call him: the unelected President of the US) will face his own election on Oct 27.
Behind closed doors in August, Netanyahu told his own party that they would lose “unless something changes”. And the polls tended to agree with him: Likud would end up with somewhere between 19 and 24 seats, and Gadi Eisenkot’s new party would be similar or slightly ahead. Neither would reach the required 61 to rule.
On September 29th he warned that “our enemies will try to attack us”. Assuredly for their hatred of the free elections?
The next day a pilot stabs another on a flight to Tel Aviv. Israel was looking into a potential Iranian link, and Trump said that the IRGC might have put the co-pilot there: “they’ll be hit very hard, don’t worry”.
Evidence: “Trust me bro”.
Let’s assume nothing happens, and Bibi loses. The likely replacement is Eisenkot, the general who wrote “disproportionate force” into doctrine back in 2008 (the Dahiya doctrine). Or Naftali Bennett, the author of the “octopus doctrine”: stop chasing the tentacles, go for the head in Tehran.
No matter who you choose in Israel, you’ll get a hawk.
What the 27th decides is who will be calling Trump to have him act.
Trump’s own date is November 3rd.
source
By Moody’s count this war has already cost the average American household about $1,760.
source
Diesel hit an all-time record of $6.53 a gallon last month, mortgages are at 7.4%, and on Thursday the Treasury sold 30-year paper at the highest yield since 2000.
On top of that, the President has promised every adult $5,000 if Republicans hold Congress. [Remember the 2k he promised before?]
Financed, presumably, at 5.6%.
One dancer needs something to change before the 27th.
The other wants nothing to change before the 3rd.
Both insist on leading.
On Thursday, Trump posted that oil was flowing through Hormuz in record numbers, 22 million barrels in a single night and not a barrel of it Iranian.
source
We’ll still get to the numbers later on, but first the most important bit:
We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.
– DJT
Crude dropped, Treasuries caught a bid, and everybody breathed out.
I’m still holding my breath… “Don’t believe anything until it has been officially denied!”… Watch out now.
A few hours later, the NYT had obtained theLeaky Buckets Pentagon’s plan for an intense three-day campaign against Iran’s missiles, drones, energy facilities and IRGC command posts.
source
The State Department told every American in the Middle East that bombs could start flying around at a moment’s notice.
FYI: the last time they put out a region-wide alert like that was just before the Houthi strikes were ordered and subsequently called off inside the same weekend. [read more here]
Now, I promised to get to the barrels.
22 million of them.
A supertanker carries about two.
So that means 11 of them. Fully loaded. In ONE night.
Before the war the ENTIRE Strait processed about 20 a day. On 125 ships.
On Thursday, transits were estimated at around 10.
Guess Sam is right and the US has some really fancy technology to make things happen… Like a teleportation device?! (that’s what I think, not what Sam said btw)
Trump’s Defense Secretary even said last week that Hormuz now beats pre-war levels!
Tanker counts say 64%.
Vitol counts about 14 mil.
And one OSINT tracker gets 7.8.
Everybody has a number.
The administration has several ones.
Kpler, which is assumed to be counting tankers for a living, suspects that some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran 10 to 20% of each cargo for safe passage. Which is pretty well possible as Iran has the ability to shoot fish in the barrel at will. And has been relatively quiet lately, with a mild chance of missile showers.
source
Which brings us to the Treasury. On Monday Scotty announced that “Operation Economic Outcast is delivering results”.
Iran’s reply:
source
If bombs won’t do America in, Iranian trolls for sure will!
Same week: CENTCOM works on “building momentum for freedom of navigation”.
source
Same week: the 13th US-escorted tanker got hit in seven days, ships turned around on IRGC orders with American jets overhead, and more attacks logged than in any other week of the war.
Momentum (in what direction, though?)
What world are we living in? One where we transport MORE oil with only a fraction of the ships? Where freedom of navigation is ensured by burning vessels? Or where the same administration cannot hold the lie together well enough?
That’s not only American, by the way:
source
versus:
Are there even talks?
In the same week an Iranian official says: “no talks”. And the FM says talks are alive and well? Parliament has filed to impeach the FM. And Trump calls the talks productive.
4 official positions on a negotiation that may well not exist.
Talking about
world:
The G7 announced it would release 100 million barrels of diesel and other reserves to fight fuel prices. Turned out they were already accounted for in the 400M back in March. (Just a subtle hint for those officials: follow the crash-course in double, triple, hundruple-counting at the COMEX)
Had it been real, would it even matter? 100 million barrels released over four months, in a world that burns 100 million barrels a day…
Japan (ever so) politely opted out of the G7’s stock release. They know what’s in their tanks…
Britain has roughly three weeks of diesel, and Europe heads into winter with its emptiest gas storage for the season since anyone started counting (previous article).
China paused fuel exports over its Golden Week holiday.
Russia has banned diesel exports through October.
India’s MRPL cancelled its diesel and jet cargoes after a refinery fire.
Renting a supertanker now costs $1.33 million a day, up from ~$100,000 before the war. Which probably makes it the only thing in this war with a clear business case.
Also the IMF called bond markets “orderly”.
I knew they had their heads up their asses, but calling the markets orderly when the 30Y UK yield went through 6% and France’s credit default swaps hit a 13-year wide?
That’s a bit of a stretch.
Guess they’re competing for top-clown.
Definitely orderly.
Want more? Well, focus on Riyadh: the “Answer Allah” hit the Aramco refinery in the capital. But somehow the coalition insists no such strike happened. The Saudi Civil Defense simply stopped publishing alerts.
Problem solved? I guess?
Aramco’s CEO even said that 3 billion barrels are simply gone and refilling them will take two years.
They’ve been buying diesel. In the Mediterranean.
Or the UAE: back in March, there were rumours that Bibi shortly visited. Officially denied. A few weeks ago he officially visited. When you need to believe the opposite of what officials say, did the first happen and not the second? Brain twister…
Or Qatar’s LNG force majeure that now runs to December.
Monday is Columbus Day. Some markets will be closed for a three-day weekend, for a three-day plan.
Remember February 28th (link)? That war was also going to be over in two or three days.
This weekend is the last realistic window where the US could act before the midterms: next Friday is monthly options expiry, then come the month-end settlements, then Israel votes.
No1 wants to upset option expiration (read why here: link)
What I’ve been looking for is unusual call buying in crude, but so far nothing. Maybe they forbade whoever did it last time from profiting again, so as not to give the game away?
But the airlines aren’t waiting for it. Emirates, Etihad and flydubai have all cancelled flights into Saudi Arabia, and Friday started with explosions over Kuwait that nobody has explained yet.
Before I forget, the SPR. Now at ~283 million barrels (its lowest since 1982). Well, Trump states he’ll refill it with Venezuelan crude.
You would just have to forget that oil isn’t oil (link). Or that the pumps aren’t working properly on the Venezuelan side, or that hurricane season (Isaias enters theGulf chat) tends to reduce transportation efficiency.
Or, according to the Energy Secretary: swap every Venezuelan barrel one-for-one for an American one, and store the American one. (because the V one is too heavy and sour to actually store)
I guess you could understand it as refilling the reserve with Venezuelan oil, minus the Venezuelan oil. Yup, totally makes sense these days.
In the meantime the DoE is offering traders 40 million barrels from the SPR. You just need to pay it back in ‘28 with a 25% surplus. Last time in June about 0.5 million were bid for.
Due to this overwhelming success, they obviously had to run it again…
Commercial crude drew another 3.2 million barrels last week. Oil glut?
Midwest gasoline stocks are at a record low.
And as last reported: refineries have been running near 97%, with product inventories 13% below the five-year average.
The US even has a dedicated diesel reserve which would cover all of six and a half hours.
We’re saved!
So, with all that said… What does a barrel now actually cost?
Depends if you want to hold one.
Paper Brent sits around $100.
Dated Brent (the real one) printed over $125 this week.
Russia’s Urals, you know, the sanctioned unsellable oil, traded at $128.
Oman crude has been running $13 over Brent.
There’s a glut. In pixels.
Iran has told everyone what happens when they are attacked. Or if they attack. It’s not very clear.
But when its army sees a big attack coming, it will strike first, and the range of its weapons “can be raised as battlefield requires”.
Hit Iranian energy and, if March is any guide, Gulf energy will get hit right back: refineries, terminals, LNG trains, pipelines.
The IRGC says it will close the “illegal” Omani lanes regardless.
The Houthis have already told everyone at Saudi oil facilities to work from home for the foreseeable future.
But geology wants a little chat: Iran keeps its valuables in mountains. Its missiles live in tunnels. Its command is dispersed over 31 provincial headquarters.
Compare that to the Gulf that keeps its valuables on the beach. Ras Tanura, Ras Laffan, Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Kuwait’s refineries, the desalination plants: flat sand, by the water, a few minutes of missile flight across a strait that’s 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest.
(The last time Gulf energy was targeted, physical crude traded around $150 while paper crude loafed around $100. And if a Gulf producer does get hit hard, we’ll need Iranian oil to refill the market afterwards. So we should bomb the oil, but carefully?)
With all that out of the way, I’m going to speculate a bit about what might be a potential explosive weekend menu:
Option one: the long weekend. The NYT’s three-day campaign against missiles, drones, energy and IRGC headquarters, commanders “ready to begin” any day now, and Monday off.
Pro: it’s all over before the bond market reopens on Tuesday.
Con: the Middle East burns bright.
Option two: the big one. Axios has the Pentagon telling CENTCOM to finish preparing for major combat operations, jointly with Israel: energy, infrastructure, nuclear sites. Possibly before Israel votes.
Pro: Netanyahu gets his something-that-changes, and Trump gets to say Iran will never have a nuclear weapon with a straight face.
Con: the uranium will still be under 100 metres of granite. And the Middle East will burn bright.
Option three: the small one. The Atlantic’s version is a limited strike or two, which even its own advocates admit won’t bring Iran to the table, reopen the strait or bring gas prices down before Election Day. (June redux)
Pro: a headline.
Con: the Middle East burns bright.
Option four: the official one. Nothing before November 3rd.
Pro: paper oil fell on the announcement.
Con: Iran gets 25 days of guaranteed quiet. The first evening after the announcement, they hit more tankers. A slower burn.
Option five: after the vote. The WSJ has the bombing resuming by the end of November, with up to 10,000 more troops and a third carrier.
Pro: nobody votes again until 2028.
Con: Iran has had another month to dig, and Europe will be trying to heat its homes. But still, the Middle East will be hot. In winter.
Option six: Iran goes first. Its army says it will strike if it sees a real attack coming, and it’s been reading the same headlines you have.
Pro, for Tehran: it picks the date. Monday works.
Con: this time Iran strikes the match. Still… the ME will burn bright.
Option seven (from the tinfoil shelf): a war big enough to postpone an election or two. By one reading of Israeli media, Israel’s military chief has warned that a renewed war could push back Israel’s vote, and Larry Johnson reckons the same trick could be tried on the midterms.
Nobody serious claims it’s a plan. But in today’s clown world… who knows?
Pro: you can’t lose an election that doesn’t happen.
Con: a constitutional crisis on the side of a burning ME.
And then there’s the option Beijing took in 1960: quietly take the sparrows off the list, put something else on (Cuba enters the chat), and never mention the locusts again.
Declare victory.
Find a smaller pest.
Pro: bedbugs don’t shoot back.
Con: Iran never agreed to come off the list.
Tweet
Continue reading...
[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
It takes two
In 1958 Mao Zedong found out who was stealing China’s grain.
Sparrows. Each one ate about two kilos of grain a year, according to the Party. Multiply that by every sparrow in China and you’ve found why every granary sat empty in the country.
source
So China declared a war on sparrows.
Everybody joined in. An estimated three million people banged pots, pans, drums and gongs for days in Beijing alone so the birds could never land.
They flew until they dropped out of the sky. Nests were torn down, eggs smashed, the stragglers shot.
Prussia had tried the same thing in the 1700s and got an outbreak of pests for its trouble. It’s always good to know your history…
Roughly two billion dead sparrows later, the crop output dropped by about a fifth. Because what else do sparrows eat? Insects, in particular: locusts. Rice borers (稻 rice 螟 borer)… That eat rice. Hence the name.
In 1960 Mao Zedong quietly signed a peace treaty.
Officially, no apology has ever been given to the sparrows.
Sixty-eight years later, a Republican explained like only Politburo people can why bombing Iran before the midterms actually makes sense: “it would look like the President got a win”, and “gas prices would start coming down”.
So… Let me see if I get this right, shall we? The plan to lower the price of oil… Is… bombing the oil?? Ok, makes sense, I guess…
The EIA did check by the way. As it turns out, crude generally goes up when the US strikes after a pause. Details… Details… Pesky little details…
Now the President and his party have an election coming up. And between you and me, I feel like this one should be a clear home run for the other side of the Uniparty, but we know how much they LOOOOVE to throw around hate and microaggressions… So… not very clear who will win.
Either way, the other partner to this dance (or as some call him: the unelected President of the US) will face his own election on Oct 27.
Behind closed doors in August, Netanyahu told his own party that they would lose “unless something changes”. And the polls tended to agree with him: Likud would end up with somewhere between 19 and 24 seats, and Gadi Eisenkot’s new party would be similar or slightly ahead. Neither would reach the required 61 to rule.
On September 29th he warned that “our enemies will try to attack us”. Assuredly for their hatred of the free elections?
The next day a pilot stabs another on a flight to Tel Aviv. Israel was looking into a potential Iranian link, and Trump said that the IRGC might have put the co-pilot there: “they’ll be hit very hard, don’t worry”.
Evidence: “Trust me bro”.
Let’s assume nothing happens, and Bibi loses. The likely replacement is Eisenkot, the general who wrote “disproportionate force” into doctrine back in 2008 (the Dahiya doctrine). Or Naftali Bennett, the author of the “octopus doctrine”: stop chasing the tentacles, go for the head in Tehran.
No matter who you choose in Israel, you’ll get a hawk.
What the 27th decides is who will be calling Trump to have him act.
Trump’s own date is November 3rd.
source
By Moody’s count this war has already cost the average American household about $1,760.
source
Diesel hit an all-time record of $6.53 a gallon last month, mortgages are at 7.4%, and on Thursday the Treasury sold 30-year paper at the highest yield since 2000.
On top of that, the President has promised every adult $5,000 if Republicans hold Congress. [Remember the 2k he promised before?]
Financed, presumably, at 5.6%.
One dancer needs something to change before the 27th.
The other wants nothing to change before the 3rd.
Both insist on leading.
On Thursday, Trump posted that oil was flowing through Hormuz in record numbers, 22 million barrels in a single night and not a barrel of it Iranian.
source
We’ll still get to the numbers later on, but first the most important bit:
We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.
– DJT
Crude dropped, Treasuries caught a bid, and everybody breathed out.
I’m still holding my breath… “Don’t believe anything until it has been officially denied!”… Watch out now.
A few hours later, the NYT had obtained the
source
The State Department told every American in the Middle East that bombs could start flying around at a moment’s notice.
FYI: the last time they put out a region-wide alert like that was just before the Houthi strikes were ordered and subsequently called off inside the same weekend. [read more here]
Now, I promised to get to the barrels.
22 million of them.
A supertanker carries about two.
So that means 11 of them. Fully loaded. In ONE night.
Before the war the ENTIRE Strait processed about 20 a day. On 125 ships.
On Thursday, transits were estimated at around 10.
Guess Sam is right and the US has some really fancy technology to make things happen… Like a teleportation device?! (that’s what I think, not what Sam said btw)
Trump’s Defense Secretary even said last week that Hormuz now beats pre-war levels!
Tanker counts say 64%.
Vitol counts about 14 mil.
And one OSINT tracker gets 7.8.
Everybody has a number.
The administration has several ones.
Kpler, which is assumed to be counting tankers for a living, suspects that some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran 10 to 20% of each cargo for safe passage. Which is pretty well possible as Iran has the ability to shoot fish in the barrel at will. And has been relatively quiet lately, with a mild chance of missile showers.
source
Which brings us to the Treasury. On Monday Scotty announced that “Operation Economic Outcast is delivering results”.
Iran’s reply:
source
If bombs won’t do America in, Iranian trolls for sure will!
Same week: CENTCOM works on “building momentum for freedom of navigation”.
source
Same week: the 13th US-escorted tanker got hit in seven days, ships turned around on IRGC orders with American jets overhead, and more attacks logged than in any other week of the war.
Momentum (in what direction, though?)
What world are we living in? One where we transport MORE oil with only a fraction of the ships? Where freedom of navigation is ensured by burning vessels? Or where the same administration cannot hold the lie together well enough?
That’s not only American, by the way:
source
versus:
Are there even talks?
In the same week an Iranian official says: “no talks”. And the FM says talks are alive and well? Parliament has filed to impeach the FM. And Trump calls the talks productive.
4 official positions on a negotiation that may well not exist.
Talking about
The G7 announced it would release 100 million barrels of diesel and other reserves to fight fuel prices. Turned out they were already accounted for in the 400M back in March. (Just a subtle hint for those officials: follow the crash-course in double, triple, hundruple-counting at the COMEX)
Had it been real, would it even matter? 100 million barrels released over four months, in a world that burns 100 million barrels a day…
Japan (ever so) politely opted out of the G7’s stock release. They know what’s in their tanks…
Britain has roughly three weeks of diesel, and Europe heads into winter with its emptiest gas storage for the season since anyone started counting (previous article).
China paused fuel exports over its Golden Week holiday.
Russia has banned diesel exports through October.
India’s MRPL cancelled its diesel and jet cargoes after a refinery fire.
Renting a supertanker now costs $1.33 million a day, up from ~$100,000 before the war. Which probably makes it the only thing in this war with a clear business case.
Also the IMF called bond markets “orderly”.
I knew they had their heads up their asses, but calling the markets orderly when the 30Y UK yield went through 6% and France’s credit default swaps hit a 13-year wide?
That’s a bit of a stretch.
Guess they’re competing for top-clown.
Definitely orderly.
Want more? Well, focus on Riyadh: the “Answer Allah” hit the Aramco refinery in the capital. But somehow the coalition insists no such strike happened. The Saudi Civil Defense simply stopped publishing alerts.
Problem solved? I guess?
Aramco’s CEO even said that 3 billion barrels are simply gone and refilling them will take two years.
They’ve been buying diesel. In the Mediterranean.
Or the UAE: back in March, there were rumours that Bibi shortly visited. Officially denied. A few weeks ago he officially visited. When you need to believe the opposite of what officials say, did the first happen and not the second? Brain twister…
Or Qatar’s LNG force majeure that now runs to December.
Monday is Columbus Day. Some markets will be closed for a three-day weekend, for a three-day plan.
Remember February 28th (link)? That war was also going to be over in two or three days.
This weekend is the last realistic window where the US could act before the midterms: next Friday is monthly options expiry, then come the month-end settlements, then Israel votes.
No1 wants to upset option expiration (read why here: link)
What I’ve been looking for is unusual call buying in crude, but so far nothing. Maybe they forbade whoever did it last time from profiting again, so as not to give the game away?
But the airlines aren’t waiting for it. Emirates, Etihad and flydubai have all cancelled flights into Saudi Arabia, and Friday started with explosions over Kuwait that nobody has explained yet.
Before I forget, the SPR. Now at ~283 million barrels (its lowest since 1982). Well, Trump states he’ll refill it with Venezuelan crude.
You would just have to forget that oil isn’t oil (link). Or that the pumps aren’t working properly on the Venezuelan side, or that hurricane season (Isaias enters the
Or, according to the Energy Secretary: swap every Venezuelan barrel one-for-one for an American one, and store the American one. (because the V one is too heavy and sour to actually store)
I guess you could understand it as refilling the reserve with Venezuelan oil, minus the Venezuelan oil. Yup, totally makes sense these days.
In the meantime the DoE is offering traders 40 million barrels from the SPR. You just need to pay it back in ‘28 with a 25% surplus. Last time in June about 0.5 million were bid for.
Due to this overwhelming success, they obviously had to run it again…
Commercial crude drew another 3.2 million barrels last week. Oil glut?
Midwest gasoline stocks are at a record low.
And as last reported: refineries have been running near 97%, with product inventories 13% below the five-year average.
The US even has a dedicated diesel reserve which would cover all of six and a half hours.
We’re saved!
So, with all that said… What does a barrel now actually cost?
Depends if you want to hold one.
Paper Brent sits around $100.
Dated Brent (the real one) printed over $125 this week.
Russia’s Urals, you know, the sanctioned unsellable oil, traded at $128.
Oman crude has been running $13 over Brent.
There’s a glut. In pixels.
Iran has told everyone what happens when they are attacked. Or if they attack. It’s not very clear.
But when its army sees a big attack coming, it will strike first, and the range of its weapons “can be raised as battlefield requires”.
Hit Iranian energy and, if March is any guide, Gulf energy will get hit right back: refineries, terminals, LNG trains, pipelines.
The IRGC says it will close the “illegal” Omani lanes regardless.
The Houthis have already told everyone at Saudi oil facilities to work from home for the foreseeable future.
But geology wants a little chat: Iran keeps its valuables in mountains. Its missiles live in tunnels. Its command is dispersed over 31 provincial headquarters.
Compare that to the Gulf that keeps its valuables on the beach. Ras Tanura, Ras Laffan, Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Kuwait’s refineries, the desalination plants: flat sand, by the water, a few minutes of missile flight across a strait that’s 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest.
(The last time Gulf energy was targeted, physical crude traded around $150 while paper crude loafed around $100. And if a Gulf producer does get hit hard, we’ll need Iranian oil to refill the market afterwards. So we should bomb the oil, but carefully?)
With all that out of the way, I’m going to speculate a bit about what might be a potential explosive weekend menu:
Option one: the long weekend. The NYT’s three-day campaign against missiles, drones, energy and IRGC headquarters, commanders “ready to begin” any day now, and Monday off.
Pro: it’s all over before the bond market reopens on Tuesday.
Con: the Middle East burns bright.
Option two: the big one. Axios has the Pentagon telling CENTCOM to finish preparing for major combat operations, jointly with Israel: energy, infrastructure, nuclear sites. Possibly before Israel votes.
Pro: Netanyahu gets his something-that-changes, and Trump gets to say Iran will never have a nuclear weapon with a straight face.
Con: the uranium will still be under 100 metres of granite. And the Middle East will burn bright.
Option three: the small one. The Atlantic’s version is a limited strike or two, which even its own advocates admit won’t bring Iran to the table, reopen the strait or bring gas prices down before Election Day. (June redux)
Pro: a headline.
Con: the Middle East burns bright.
Option four: the official one. Nothing before November 3rd.
Pro: paper oil fell on the announcement.
Con: Iran gets 25 days of guaranteed quiet. The first evening after the announcement, they hit more tankers. A slower burn.
Option five: after the vote. The WSJ has the bombing resuming by the end of November, with up to 10,000 more troops and a third carrier.
Pro: nobody votes again until 2028.
Con: Iran has had another month to dig, and Europe will be trying to heat its homes. But still, the Middle East will be hot. In winter.
Option six: Iran goes first. Its army says it will strike if it sees a real attack coming, and it’s been reading the same headlines you have.
Pro, for Tehran: it picks the date. Monday works.
Con: this time Iran strikes the match. Still… the ME will burn bright.
Option seven (from the tinfoil shelf): a war big enough to postpone an election or two. By one reading of Israeli media, Israel’s military chief has warned that a renewed war could push back Israel’s vote, and Larry Johnson reckons the same trick could be tried on the midterms.
Nobody serious claims it’s a plan. But in today’s clown world… who knows?
Pro: you can’t lose an election that doesn’t happen.
Con: a constitutional crisis on the side of a burning ME.
And then there’s the option Beijing took in 1960: quietly take the sparrows off the list, put something else on (Cuba enters the chat), and never mention the locusts again.
Declare victory.
Find a smaller pest.
Pro: bedbugs don’t shoot back.
Con: Iran never agreed to come off the list.
Tweet
Continue reading...
[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
