The first exit poll was conducted in a gubernatorial contest in 1968. Since that time, exit polls have been important to understanding the messages voters send in elections.
The traditional exit polls, where voters are interviewed leaving their polling places, aren’t as big a feature in assessing voter opinions as they were in the past. In 2026, we have a broader effort, the Voter Poll. It was conducted by SSRS, a social science research firm. Sponsors are ABC, the Associated Press, CBS, CNN, Fox, MS Now, and NBC.
Because voters cast their ballots over many weeks with some voting by mail and others in person, SSRS used a multimode design to capture voters’ views.
Here are some of the major preliminary posted findings from CNN and NBC. Responses frequently vary by a point or two.
Anger: Seven percent of voters said they were enthusiastic about the way things were going in the country, and 18% were satisfied. A substantial 37% were dissatisfied and 38% angry. In 2024, 31% of voters said they were angry. In 2026, 63% of Democrats, compared with 8% of Republicans, were angry. The electorate’s sour mood explains the stunning results yesterday.
Black people were 9% of voters in 2026. Black women are one of the Democratic Party’s strongest groups. They voted 92% for Democratic candidates this year, and black men went Democratic by 85%.
Corruption: Thirty-six percent in the Voter Poll said the Democratic Party could better handle corruption, 31% the Republicans, and 33% neither. In another question, 54% said government corruption was crucial to their vote and 36% a major factor. Those who chose crucial voted 62% for Democrats, 36% for Republicans.
Democrats and Republicans: Ninety-eight percent of Democrats voted for Democratic candidates compared to 93% of Republicans who voted for GOP candidates. Thirty-four percent of voters indicated they were Democrats, 33% Republicans and, separately, independents. Most independents lean to one party or the other. Pushing leaners shows that 47% of voters usually think of themselves as Democrats and 44% Republican.
Twenty-five percent of voters considered themselves MAGA, and they voted 96% for Republican candidates. Among Republicans, 20% were MAGA and 13% were not MAGA. Twenty-one percent of Democrats were democratic socialists and 12% were not.
Education: The more education you have, the more Democratic you are. Sixty-six percent of those with a graduate or professional degree voted for Democratic candidates compared with 43% of those with a high school education. This is the familiar “diploma divide.” Voters with no college degree were a slightly larger share of the electorate (53%) than college grads (47%). College grads voted 62% to 36% for Democratic candidates; those with no college voted 51% for Republicans and 47% for Democrats.
Family’s financial situation: Eighteen percent said it was better than two years ago, 44% worse, and 38% about the same. Twenty-one percent of voters said inflation had caused severe hardship for their family, 57% moderate hardship, 21% no hardship. In 2024, those responses were 22%, 53%, and 24%, respectively.
Sixty-two percent in 2026 said higher-than-usual prices were more because of Trump’s policies, while 38% said they were more because of factors outside his control. In another question, 22% said Trump tariff policies have helped the national economy, 65% hurt.
Gas prices or groceries, etc. Fifty-eight percent were very concerned about the cost of food and groceries, 59% about the cost of gasoline and diesel, 54% about the cost of utilities such as electricity, natural gas, and water, and 58% about healthcare. Fourty-three percent of voters said Democrats could better handle the economy, 38% Republicans, and 19% neither.
Hispanics/Latinos, a fast-growing share of the electorate, were 10% of all voters in 2026, compared to 11% in 2024 when they gave Trump a boost. This year, Hispanics voted for Democratic candidates. Again, there was a 10-point gender gap. Sixty-five percent of Latino women voted for Democrats compared with 55% of Latino men.
Immigration: Fifty-seven percent of voters said Trump’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far, 20% not far enough, and 22% said they have been about right. Still, 44% said the Republican Party would better handle immigration, 41% the Democratic Party (15% chose neither). Forty percent approved of the way ICE was handling its job, while 60% disapproved. Fourteen percent said immigration was the most important problem facing the country (the top issue was the economy at 39%).
Jews were 3% of all voters. They voted 67% for Democratic candidates. Fifty percent of voters said support for Israel was too strong, 13% not strong enough, and 37% said it was about right.
Key institutions: Forty-two percent of voters approved strongly or somewhat of how the Supreme Court was handling its job. Twenty-three percent gave that response about Congress. Nine percent in another question said Congress was doing too much to provide checks and balances on the presidency, while 71% said not enough, and 20% said Congress was doing about the right amount.
Liberals: Twenty-five percent of voters described themselves as liberal on most political matters, 34% conservative, and 41% moderate.
Eighteen percent overall in another question said they considered themselves democratic socialists. While democratic socialists did not flip any seats in this election, several of their prominent members were elected.
Most important issue facing the country. The Voter Poll asked about six issues, including the economy (39% said it was most important), the state of democracy (32%), immigration (14%), healthcare (8%), foreign policy (4%), and crime (3%). Democratic voters’ top issue was the state of democracy followed by the economy. For Republicans, it was the economy followed by immigration.
None: The growth of the “nones,” people with no religious affiliation, has been a big story recently, particularly among the young. In the Voter Poll question about denomination, 26% of voters said “none.” They voted 77% for Democratic candidates, 21% for Republicans.
Only 3% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of both parties. These people split their votes evenly, 47% Democratic, 47% Republican. Fifteen percent said they had a favorable opinion of neither party. Fifty-nine percent of this group voted for Democratic candidates.
The parties: Forty-one percent in a separate question had a favorable opinion of the GOP, while 57% had an unfavorable opinion. The numbers were not much better for the Democrats, 47% to 53%, respectively.
Questions on AI: The Voter Poll asked several questions about AI. Twenty-four percent said it would do more to help society, 57% more to hurt, and 18% neither help nor hurt. The vote of the help and hurt voters were mirror images of each other, with help voters casting ballots for Republican candidates (61%) and hurt voters voting 60% for Democrats. Twenty-nine percent of voters said the Democrats would handle artificial intelligence better, 27% the Republicans, and 43% neither.
Twenty-three percent said AI and data centers were crucial considerations in their vote, and 33% said they were a major factor. Thirty-one percent said they were a minor factor and 13% not a factor. Those who said crucial or major voted for Democrats. Those who were less concerned voted for Republicans.
Religion: Protestants and other Christians were 40% of voters, followed by Catholics at 21%. Protestants voted for Democratic candidates (60%) and Catholics narrowly for Republicans (51% to 48%).
Seventeen percent of voters were white, born-again evangelical Christians. They voted overwhelmingly for GOP candidates (82%).
Suburbs: “Density equals Democrats” is an old adage in demography. Central cities are the most Democratic. Seventy-one percent of urban voters voted for Democrats; 61% of rural voters cast their votes for Republicans. Suburban voters cast the largest share of votes, as they have for many years. Forty-five percent of voters lived in the suburbs.
Transgender rights: Eight percent said they were gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender. And they voted 86% for Democratic candidates. In another question, 52% said support for transgender rights had gone too far, 26% not far enough, and 22% said it had been about right.
Union households: Fifteen percent of voters were in a union household, and they voted for Democrats at 60%.
Vote count accuracy and fairness: In pre-election polls, most people were confident that votes would be counted fairly and accurately. In the Voter Poll, 59% said they were very (19%) and somewhat (40%) confident that the election was being conducted fairly and accurately. Thirteen percent were not at all confident.
Thirty-two percent said the state of democracy was the most important issue facing the country in 2026. It ranked second of six issues.
Nine percent said they were first-time voters.
War: Thirty-seven percent of voters said the U.S. had made the right decision to enter a war with Iran and 63% the wrong one. Thirty-four percent said the war was a crucial factor for them in voting, and 40% a major factor.
X: The gender gap continues. Women were a larger share of voters, as they have been for some time. They voted 58% to 40% for Democratic candidates. Men split their votes 49% to 49%.
White women with a college degree or more voted 63% for Democratic candidates. White women with less formal education voted 58% for GOP candidates.
HOW SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHICS HELPED DEMOCRATS FLIP THE HOUSE AND SENATE ACCORDING TO EXIT POLLS
Young people: The Voter Poll did not explore generations, instead looking at voters by age group. Eleven percent of voters were between 18-29, 35% aged 65 or more. The 18- to 29-year-olds voted 72% for Democrats, 25% Republican — a stunning 47-point margin. Those 65 years or more narrowly voted 51% to 46% for Republicans. Eighteen- to 24-year-olds voted 76% for Democratic candidates.
Zillennials is a new term in the generations’ naming game. They are roughly ages 27-33 and would fit in the Voter Poll’s age break 25 to 29 years. They voted 68% for Democratic candidates.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
