Sen. Ted Cruz is sounding an alarm that Republicans in Texas have not had to hear in a generation: even the state’s down-ballot races may be in danger.
“We could lose every single statewide race in Texas,” Cruz warned on his Verdict podcast as the final weekend before Tuesday’s midterm elections approached.
That is a startling message from a Republican senator in a state where Democrats have not won a statewide office since 1994.
Cruz’s warning is about turnout and risk. It is no announcement that the election has already been decided.
In the same discussion, the senator called on Republicans to get to the polls and argued that there was still time to prevent the outcome he feared. His message was aimed at voters who might otherwise assume the party’s long winning streak in Texas would carry its candidates through another election.
Cruz said Texas is “excruciatingly close” and pushed back against fellow conservatives who dismiss uncomfortable polling. He acknowledged that polls can lean left but insisted the turnout numbers he is watching are real.
His larger fear is a national Republican defeat. Cruz said Democratic voters are energized and that, if only ballots already cast counted, Republicans would be in grave trouble in the battle for both chambers of Congress.
That is his political assessment, not a reported election result.
Mediaite reported the full context of his comments: Cruz was urging Republicans and independents to vote, not predicting an inevitable Democratic sweep. He said the party can still change the outcome on Election Day.
On the podcast, Cruz described a possible “bloodbath” if current turnout patterns do not change. He also conceded that polling has biases, while arguing Republicans cannot ignore the figures simply because they are unwelcome.
His Texas example was especially pointed because he did not limit the risk to Paxton’s Senate race. He said every statewide contest could fall, a far broader scenario than losing one closely watched campaign.
Cruz’s point was a call to action aimed at conservatives who may believe Texas will remain red without their vote. That is the context behind the viral line, and it is why the next few days matter more than the clip’s shock value.
Conservative organizer Scott Presler was making that same practical point to Texas voters before early voting closed Friday, singling out the Senate race and calling for turnout for Republican Ken Paxton.
Texas Secretary of State Robert Howden said more than 4.2 million Texans voted in the first six days of early voting. That official count established heavy participation early in the period.
Howden urged Texans to make a voting plan and reminded them that early in-person voting would run through Friday, October 30. The state’s release was an administrative turnout update, not an estimate of which candidates were ahead.
The distinction is critical in Texas. Voters do not register by political party, so a total ballot count cannot tell anyone how many Republican or Democratic votes have been cast.
It also means no one should treat an early-vote chart as the final electorate. Texans who wait until Tuesday can change the composition of the vote substantially.
The Associated Press reported that turnout in Texas had risen to more than 6.3 million by Wednesday, versus about 4.2 million at the same point four years earlier. The increase is dramatic, and it helps explain why campaign operatives on both sides are paying close attention.
AP also described a surge across several Senate battlegrounds, where voters were arriving early in large numbers. Those ballots make the stakes immediate for a party that cannot assume a normal midterm turnout pattern.
Still, participation is not the same thing as a vote margin. A large early-vote total can contain supporters of both major parties and people whose preferences do not neatly track their county’s history.
Cruz is asking Republicans to act on a warning, not presenting a certified count of Democratic and Republican votes. The Senate contest gives that warning immediate stakes.
Paxton is facing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has been campaigning as a candidate for Texans beyond his party’s base. His campaign’s own video puts that appeal plainly.
Recent polling has shown a competitive race, but surveys do not settle the governor’s race or every other statewide contest. Cruz’s sweeping scenario is a warning about what could happen if turnout breaks badly for Republicans, not proof that each race is tied.
It would be easy for Republicans to wave away Cruz’s words as pre-election theater, and just as easy for Democrats to treat them as a declaration of victory.
Neither reading captures the work left before polls close Tuesday.
What Cruz has done is put a usually unspoken fear in public: a state that has anchored Republican national politics for decades may be competitive enough that complacency is dangerous. Voters, not a podcast clip or an early-vote chart, will decide whether his warning was prescient or overblown.
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at 100 Percent Fed Up. 100PercentFedUp.com.
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[ H/T WLT Report ]
