Republicans suffered a rout on Tuesday. There is one sliver of good news, however. The remaining congressional GOP may be less divided on the issue Trump rode back into office on: mass deportation.
Even amid the carnage, voters gave Republicans a narrow edge over Democrats on immigration. In the NBC exit poll, 44% said Republicans would handle the issue better, against 41% for Democrats. That is not proof that every voter favors mass deportation. It is a rebuke to those who spent two years insisting that immigration enforcement itself had become a political loser.
Somehow Americans were expected to endure war abroad but not inconvenience at home.
I spent much of that time arguing with reporters, activists, members of Congress, and their staffers about a manufactured consensus. The people who wanted to abandon enforcement were often the people who stood to benefit from cheap, illegal labor. I said so, loudly. It cost me invitations that somehow never arrived. Fine.
The voters who sent Trump to Washington expected him to carry out the largest deportation operation in American history. Instead, they got a war with Iran. Even Vice President JD Vance says plainly that the war cost Republicans the midterms.
The Iran campaign was defended on the grounds that short-term economic pain was worth a long-term strategic gain. The lobbyists who oppose worksite enforcement invoke the same economic pain as a veto over sovereignty. Beef could cost more. DoorDash might take longer. You might have to mow your own lawn. Somehow Americans were expected to endure war abroad but not inconvenience at home.
We could still make that choice.
ICE does not need a new check from the incoming Democrat Congress. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act appropriated roughly $75 billion for ICE enforcement and detention, above annual funding, available through September 2029. The money is there. The missing ingredient is a serious commitment to enforcing immigration law at worksites — where employers who profit from illegal labor have so far enjoyed far too much deference.
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And the deportation totals are not where they need to be. The Migration Policy Institute estimates that through July 2026, formal removals under Trump averaged about 380,000 a year, below the Obama-era annual peak of more than 432,000. The unauthorized immigrant population, meanwhile, grew from roughly 11 million during the Obama years to an estimated 15.8 million by mid-2024. Measured against the size of that population, this is not the promised operation at scale.
My organization, the Oversight Project, has sued the Department of Homeland Security for detailed deportation records. The government should release the numbers and let Americans judge the results for themselves. We intend to keep pressing until it does.
Vance seems to recognize what is at stake. In his post-election assessment Wednesday, he wrote: “I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement — by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.”
That is more than a throwaway line. It acknowledges a fight over whether the administration will confront employers who want the border secured but their illegal workforce untouched. Vance has now publicly put worksite enforcement on the table.
So has the personnel shift at the White House, or at least it should. Trump on Friday named Stephen Miller to replace Susie Wiles as chief of staff, effective Monday. Few people have done more to move the political debate on immigration than Miller. He will occupy the most powerful staff position in the administration. If Washington cannot move from promises to mass deportation now, when will it?
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The midterms also cleared out many lawmakers whom immigration hawks judged weak on enforcement. According to the Immigration Accountability Project’s post-election tally, 18 losing lawmakers ranked in its bottom quartile, compared with just two in its top quartile. The group also counted eight defeated co-sponsors of Rep. María Salazar’s (R-Fla.) “Dignity Act.” Those rankings do not tell us what caused each defeat. But they give the new Congress a different complexion.
Consider Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). When ICE stepped up activity in southwest Kansas’ meatpacking country in September, Marshall complained that agents had not coordinated with local law enforcement and had caused “mass disruptions to local communities and businesses.” He then lost to Democrat Adam Hamilton by nearly five points, becoming the first Kansas Republican to lose a Senate race since 1932. His defeat had many causes. It also illustrates the political pressure that arrives when enforcement reaches the employers who depend on illegal labor.
Republicans were punished over the Iran war, the cost of living, and promises left unfulfilled. The answer is not to give up on the issue on which voters still trusted Republicans more than Democrats. It is to keep the promise that helped bring their coalition together.
Trump has the funding. He has a vice president talking about worksite enforcement and Stephen Miller about to run the White House staff. The special interests are weaker than they were a week ago. A large contingent of pro-amnesty Republicans lost. There is no shortage of excuses left to invent. There is less reason than ever to accept them.
Now do the job.
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[H/T Blaze Media]
