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SALINA, Kansas — Kansas holds the record for the longest continuous streak of single-party control of both Senate seats in a state. Republicans have held them since 1939.
Could that be about to change?
Top election prognosticators have shifted the race from a definite Republican win to a Senate contest that now only leans to the GOP. A recent poll suggested Adam Hamilton, the Democratic candidate, holds a 2-point lead over the incumbent Republican, Sen. Roger Marshall.
So what’s going on? Is it the same old story of a race tightening after Labor Day, only for the Republican to romp away with it as big donors pour in money? Or is something more interesting going on?
Secrets is driving around Kansas this week to find out. From the big Kansas City suburbs where nearly one-third of voters live, three hours south to Coffeyville, with its beef ranchers, back northwest to Salina, sits on major trucking intersections, and then south again to Wichita, known as the “Air Capital of the World” for its rich aviation and aerospace manufacturing history.
This is what we have found out so far.
1. Kansas is not as red as you think. It has had seven Democratic governors in the time since the last Democratic senator. As one operative put it to me, it goes for populists.
2. As Michael Smith, professor of political science at Emporia State University, told me: “This is the perfect opportunity for Democrats.” Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran, and their impact on fuel prices, have really hurt farmers, a vital part of the Kansas economy.
3. Privately, Republicans agree. If Trump had deliberately wanted to tank their chances in Kansas, they joke, he would have raised diesel prices, slammed Bombardier (a big employer in Wichita), and launched raids on meat packing plants.
4. Marshall is worried. Incumbents who expect to win comfortably, as a Republican might in a state that Trump won by 16 points, don’t agree to a second debate with upstart challengers. Marshall faces off against Hamilton on Oct. 21.
5. Democrats know how to win in Kansas. See Point No. 1. They fight local and shun the national party, leaving donkeys and their party name off their adverts, for example, and move to the center. That’s how they have managed to hold the governor’s office so frequently.
6. Hamilton’s status as founder of a megachurch gives him powerful name recognition. He was known long before he entered politics. Today, his network of 24,000 members, spread across nine sites and with 22 services every Sunday, is a useful force multiplier.
7. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) attacked Hamilton for some of his teachings that non-Christians might be able to go to Heaven. That is a high-risk strategy. More than two-thirds of Kansans say they are Christian, and they may not respond well to their faith being sucked into political squabbling.
What does it all mean?
Marshall is still the clear favorite according to the prediction markets. He is running at 71% on Kalshi, compared with 29% for Hamilton.
To be clear, Kansas is not North Carolina. It is way down the list of states that Democrats hope to flip. It’s just that stranger things have happened. Probably.
Beef country
Wednesday is the day for calves and yearlings sales at Coffeyville Stockyards in southeast Kansas. A steady stream of beautiful steers made their way, reluctantly at times, through the sales ring as ranchers looked them over and an auctioneer kept up an incomprehensible (to outsiders at least) commentary on bids offered and sales made.
Kansas is one of the most important beef producers in the country. But ranchers here have been buffeted by high diesel prices, raids on meat packing plants, and rising land prices. Plenty blame the Trump administration.
Secrets spent Wednesday with them to find out whether they would be taking their pain out on Republicans in the midterms.
READ MORE: RANCHERS ARE FURIOUS ABOUT DIESEL PRICES AND BEEF IMPORTS. COULD IT COST REPUBLICANS A SENATE SEAT IN KANSAS?
Lunchtime reading
The Rev. Adam Hamilton knows what’s the matter with Kansas: E.J. Dionne Jr. offers the case from the left.
The Israeli dad who stopped a hijacking: The Free Press gets an exclusive interview. “We physically fought with the co-pilot; he was going wild. I put him in a choke hold, took control of him, and dragged him out of the cockpit.”
Continue reading...
[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
