Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of Washington Secrets. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, CLICK HERE. Today, we bring out the rarely used “good news for Republicans” midterm klaxon. Plus, we ask which luxury-loving politician was spotted slumming it in economy on the way back from the United Nations. And which Democrat was stoking 2028 speculation in D.C. on Tuesday evening?
Donald Trump’s approval ratings are bouncing back, and Republicans are closing the gap on Democrats ahead of the midterm elections, according to a new poll by John Zogby Strategies.
It found that 42% of likely voters approved of the way Trump was doing his job, up from 38% last month. The number who disapproved fell from 59% to 56%.
At the same time, the poll showed that Republicans had narrowed Democrats’ generic ballot lead ahead of the midterms from 9 points to 6.
The poll of 1,007 likely midterm voters stands as a rare ray of hope for Republicans, who have had to endure a fresh swath of predictions of a blue wave in November.
Diesel prices have risen way above $6 per gallon, and there is no end in sight to the war in Iran. Trump himself has cut a frustrated figure at times, banning three news organizations from the White House, while at others offered little interest in helping his party stem its losses.
The result has been a string of increasingly dire forecasts. The prediction market Kalshi, for example, now gives Democrats a 91% chance of taking the House and a 61% chance of flipping the Senate (which it predicted to stay in Republican hands as recently as Sept. 14.) The latest RealClearPolitics polling average gives Democrats an 8.3-point lead.
Pollster Jeremy Zogby said most of the movement in his poll was coming from independents, who were often misjudged by survey firms as either Republican- or Democratic-leaning. It is more complicated than that, he explained.
“Rather, there is a fluidity with this group,” Zogby said. “And the movement we see now, it looks like more Independents are concerned about the specter of socialism,” he said.
“And crime is another issue in MAGA’s favor,” he added. “Meanwhile, it’s becoming abundantly clear for more voters, in particular Independents, that the Democrats are marching towards the midterms without a real plan.”
Voters aren’t hearing much beyond Democrats’ criticism of Trump and have yet to hear a clear, coherent strategy for bringing down prices.
Against that backdrop, many voters have tightened their belts, and now security is taking precedence over prosperity.
READ MORE: CONSERVATIVE GROUP SAYS ALL IS NOT LOST FOR REPUBLICANS
Even on the trickier issues there was good news for Trump.
It found his approval rating on handling affordability went up from 32% last month to 36%, and went up from 33% to 40% on Iran.
But before Republican strategists get carried away, there are plenty of other reasons to be gloomy. The latest Economist/YouGov poll, published Tuesday, gave Democratic candidates a 14-point lead over Republicans.
So here’s the question: Is the Zogby poll the first to pick up a late break towards Republicans that often happens ahead of elections? Or is it an outlier, buffeted by the inevitable noise around the signal?
You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at secrets@washingtonexaminer.com with your comments, story tips, and suggestions.
Flying Eco-Noemy
There was a time when Kristi Noem loved nothing better than luxury plane shopping. Remember the to-do when it emerged that the then-Homeland Security secretary had leased a fully-kitted out Boeing 737 MAX 8 jet and was trying to buy it for a cool $70 million?
It came with a queen-size bed, showers, bigger TVs than Secrets has at home, and a bar.
Noem claimed it was to be used for long-range command-and-control missions and deportation flights. No wonder it had a bar.
But that was then. She was spotted yesterday returning from the United Nations in New York, where she took part in a Shield of the Americas (no, me neither) event with Trump, on the 5:15 pm American Airlines flight from LaGuardia to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.
“She was slumming it down in economy,” says a Secrets source.
And yes, it was one of the small planes. The ones that don’t have queen-size beds.
Andy Beshear
There’s only one reason why the governor of Kentucky would be promoting his new memoir, Go and Do Likewise, in Washington, D.C. But that didn’t come up until the audience questions section of his event at George Washington University on Tuesday evening.
Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland was MC-ing and reading out the audience questions. He asked Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky to set out his thought process on what might be next for him. There were titters from the audience as Beshear pretended to think the question was about his role in campaigning in the midterms, not about his 2028 presidential ambitions.
But then he described winning reelection in 2023 and the sense of relief it brought.
“I looked at my wife and said, ‘Hooo, I’ll never have to run for anything ever again.'” Beshear said, before shifting direction. “And sitting here today, I’m not sure that’s true. And while that’s not any type of announcement, because that would require me to fill out paperwork, I just, I won’t leave a broken country to my kids or to our future generations.”
His response brought a noisy standing ovation.
Beshear might not yet have the name recognition, but he has some credentials that could help him win votes in a divided country. He is, after all, a Democratic governor in a deep red state. And his memoir places his faith at the center of his politics. If elections are to be won from the center in the future, he might be the sort of candidate to do it.
But then again, that is a big if. As he acknowledged.
“I don’t think that we should want a Democratic version of Trump,” Beshear said. “I don’t think that we should be the party of retribution and of trying to own the other side.”
“Being governor has been amazing,” he said. “If what voters end up wanting is the Democratic version of Trump, I’m not their guy, and I’m okay with that.”
Lunchtime reading
A populist revival in Iowa: Everyone is an outsider, and no one is an incumbent. Or at least pretending not to be. This is where we are.
Brendan Carr was a member of a rogue Alcoholics Anonymous group some labeled a ‘cult’: The Midtown group, which was based in the Washington, D.C. area, attracted young people who were seeking help with addiction, sometimes at the urging of their parents.
Continue reading...
[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
