Palantir cofounder Peter Thiel predicted there will be a 50-50 chance that a socialist candidate wins the presidency in 2028 against the Republican nominee, whether that is Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Asked which administration official would be a better candidate to increase the Republican Party’s chances of winning the White House in two years, Thiel said on the MD MEETS — Essential Talks with Mathias Dopfner podcast: “I’m still a Vance partisan. I worry that it will be very hard for either candidate to win.”
The Republican megadonor, who donated $15 million to support Vance’s 2022 Senate campaign in Ohio, suggested an alternative question: “Who’s going to be the Democratic candidate?” In Thiel’s view, a socialist front-runner would do well in 2028 if the Democratic Party overperforms in the midterm elections this fall.
“Obviously, in a close election, a center-left candidate is probably better,” Thiel said. “If it’s not a close election, it probably doesn’t matter. And I think there’s a decent chance that it will not even be close. If the Republicans get wiped out in the midterms this fall, then the Democrats will think that they will win no matter what in 2028. And therefore, there probably will not be as strong a firewall … you won’t pull out all the stops to prevent a democratic socialist from winning.”
“I think the Democrats will do well enough in the midterms, in a month and a half, that they will be indifferent to a center-left vs. far-left presidential candidate,” he said. “And then it’s a completely open field, completely open question.”
Thiel went on to recount a conversation he had with political scientist Francis Fukuyama, who was highly skeptical of the likelihood that a socialist would win the presidency in 2028.
“When I told him that there’s a good chance a democratic socialist would win in 2028, he responded with absolute confidence: ‘No way, can never happen,'” Thiel recounted. “And I don’t think history is set like that.”
Asked by the podcast host whether a socialist win is the most likely outcome, Thiel said it’s “not the most likely” result, but he believes there is a “50% chance,” before adding that the chance is “pretty high.”
The billionaire entrepreneur’s comments on the 2028 election come amid the socialist movement’s rapid rise in American politics, beginning with the election of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani last year. Now, many socialists are running for Congress.
Among the most notable contenders are Darializa Avila Chevalier, who’s running for New York’s 13th Congressional District, and Angie Nixon, who’s seeking to unseat Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) in November. Abdul el Sayed, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, is often associated with the socialist movement by Republicans, but he is not an official member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) recently renewed her membership with the left-wing organization as she weighs her political future. She has been floated as a likely 2028 presidential contender for the Democratic Party, but she could also run for Sen. Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) seat if she wished.
It remains to be seen whether a socialist candidate will rise in 2028 as Thiel predicted, but socialism appears to be a growing trend in the United States. In a Gallup survey published Wednesday, 43% of the public said they view the far-left political and economic ideology positively. This figure is the highest it’s ever been since Gallup started polling on common economic concepts in 2010. For comparison, the figure was 39% last year.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
