A new survey released Friday from Quantus Insights — one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2024 election cycle — found Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan and former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, separated by less than one percentage point in Alaska’s U.S. Senate contest.
Quantus Insights completed 758 interviews and based its ballot analysis on 737 likely voters between September 28-30, with a design-adjusted margin of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
On the first-choice ballot under Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, Sullivan received 46.1 percent and Peltola 45.5 percent. A man by the name of Daniel J. Sullivan — who initially attempted to register as Daniel S. Sullivan, the middle initial of the incumbent — registered an additional 1.6 percent, while Republican Gerald L. Heikes received 1.3 percent.
An additional five percent of respondents indicated that they remain undecided. The 0.6-point difference between the two leading candidates falls well inside the margin of error.
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NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS ALASKA POLL | October 2, 2026
Our latest survey finds Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola deadlocked in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race. Fieldwork closed 34 days before Election Day.
U.S. Senate First-Choice Ballot
Dan Sullivan (R): 46.1%
Mary Peltola (D):… pic.twitter.com/9fOgmkq8g1
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 2, 2026
When respondents who initially declined to choose were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Sullivan stood at 46.8 percent and Peltola at 46.5 percent. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. remained at 1.6 percent, Heikes rose slightly to 1.5 percent, and the undecided share fell to 3.1 percent.
In a separate head-to-head question limited to Sullivan and Peltola, the incumbent received 46.5 percent and Peltola 46.2 percent, with 4.8 percent undecided and 2.5 percent indicating they would not vote in that matchup
Across these three presentations of the ballot, neither candidate held a lead outside the survey’s margin of error.
Party identification showed the expected consolidation. Among self-identified Republicans, 87 percent supported Sullivan, while 94 percent of Democrats expressed support for Peltola. Among unaffiliated voters, Peltola led 56 percent of the vote to Sullivan’s 34 percent.
By gender, Peltola led among women by 12 points while Sullivan led among men by 11 points. Age groups were more mixed, as Peltola led by 25 points among voters aged 18–29, while both candidates were tied among those aged 30–44 and 45–64. Sullivan led by six percentage points among voters over the age of 65.
Geographic results showed larger differences. Peltola led by 28 points in urban areas, by 17 points in suburban areas, and by 11 points in towns. Sullivan led by 21 points in rural areas. Quantus Insights noted that Peltola’s advantage among unaffiliated voters was offset statewide by Sullivan’s rural margin.
Under Alaska election law, the general election uses ranked-choice voting (RCV), where voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the lowest vote-getter is eliminated, and votes are redistributed to next preferences until one candidate achieves over 50% support.
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