Israel’s post-election standoff just took a dramatic turn, and the next 28 days could determine who leads the country.
Israeli President Herzog announced Saturday that Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot, not Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will receive the first mandate to try to form Israel’s next government. It is a major blow to Netanyahu, yet it is not a transfer of power and it does not mean Eisenkot has a government in hand.
The distinction matters. The Associated Press reported that Herzog is giving Eisenkot the first opportunity to assemble a governing coalition after the October 27 election, not installing him as prime minister.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party won 21 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud remained the largest single party with 27. Neither man emerged with a ready-made majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Most party representatives recommended Eisenkot during formal consultations, giving him the opening move despite Netanyahu’s larger party. The report also laid out the pressure on both camps: Eisenkot must bridge factions that disagree sharply over Arab-party support and military service, while Netanyahu is trying to preserve a right-religious alliance that no longer controls enough seats to govern alone.
If Eisenkot fails, Israel’s political machinery keeps moving rather than automatically handing him power.
Herzog’s decision followed consultations with every faction elected to the 120-seat Knesset. In his official consultation statement, Herzog said factions representing 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot, while factions representing 46 backed Netanyahu.
Herzog had already warned that the margin looked clearer on paper than it was in practice. Mutual vetoes within and between the blocs left the president to judge who had a realistic path to a stable government instead of counting recommendations alone.
That 67-46 margin gave Eisenkot the strongest claim to the opening shot, but recommendations are not signed coalition agreements. Israel’s real governing test is whether he can assemble support from at least 61 members for a viable government that can survive a confidence vote.
Likud also remains the single largest party with 27 seats, another reason not to treat Saturday’s announcement like an inauguration. Netanyahu still commands a substantial right-religious bloc and has years of experience exploiting fractures among his opponents.
The arithmetic is treacherous. Axios reported that Eisenkot’s core bloc holds 48 seats and reached 67 recommendations with support from two Arab-led parties holding 19 seats, while Netanyahu’s former coalition won 53 seats and lost its majority.
Those recommendations establish who gets the first attempt; they do not guarantee that every recommending faction will enter or sustain the same cabinet. Eisenkot therefore needs a coalition formula that converts a broad anti-Netanyahu recommendation vote into dependable governing support, a much harder negotiation involving security policy, religious-party demands, military service, and the role of Arab-led parties.
Seven lawmakers from United Torah Judaism recommended neither man. That makes the ultra-Orthodox party a potential bridge in negotiations, but also a difficult fit because Eisenkot’s camp has pushed for broader military or national service while Haredi parties have fought to preserve draft exemptions.
The mandate will be formally presented at the President’s Residence at 5 p.m. Sunday, according to The Times of Israel. Eisenkot will then have an initial 28 days to build a coalition, with Herzog empowered to grant an extension of up to 14 days.
Eisenkot brings serious national-security credentials to the fight. The Yashar chairman is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, giving him a military résumé that makes it harder for Netanyahu’s camp to dismiss him as weak on security.
He has called for a national emergency government and a formal investigation into the failures surrounding October 7. Those positions give him a sharp contrast with Netanyahu, but they also deepen the personal divide that makes a simple power-sharing bargain so difficult.
But credentials do not solve the coalition puzzle. One route would involve pulling ultra-Orthodox factions or other lawmakers away from Netanyahu’s camp; another would be a minority government backed from outside by Arab-led parties that do not formally join the cabinet.
That second path is especially combustible after the Hamas-led October 7 attack and the wars that followed. Some members of Eisenkot’s own bloc oppose reliance on Arab parties, while Eisenkot has said potential partners must recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization that should be destroyed.
A third possibility is a broad unity arrangement involving Likud lawmakers, perhaps without Netanyahu or some of his harder-line allies. Netanyahu called Saturday for a unity government under his leadership, but Eisenkot rejected the appeal as political spin, and the personal and policy divisions remain deep.
The Congressional Research Service identified the same fault lines before Herzog’s announcement: Arab-party support, Haredi conscription, a possible power-sharing deal, and the prospect of another election if nobody can break the deadlock. Its election briefing showed that Likud and parties generally aligned with it held 53 seats, while Eisenkot’s centrist-led bloc held 48, leaving neither side with the 61 seats needed for a majority.
That structure puts smaller factions and individual defectors in a powerful bargaining position. It also means a recommendation for Eisenkot can signal opposition to Netanyahu without resolving who will accept cabinet responsibility, outside support, or a compromise on military service.
The mandate starts the bargaining clock; it does not settle those conflicts.
The stakes extend directly to Washington. President Trump endorsed Netanyahu late in the campaign, but an America First relationship with Israel is bigger than any one Israeli politician; whoever governs must work with the United States on Iran, Gaza, security cooperation and expanding the Abraham Accords.
That relationship is also changing. Earlier this week, AP reported that President Trump said roughly $4 billion in annual U.S. aid would end in 2027 while American arms sales to Israel would continue—a hard-nosed shift toward burden-sharing rather than abandonment.
For now, Netanyahu remains prime minister. If Eisenkot cannot reach 61, Herzog may give another lawmaker a chance, and Netanyahu could remain in office on a caretaker basis while the process continues or the country heads toward another election.
So ignore any headline pretending Israel has already changed governments. Eisenkot has won the first move, Netanyahu has suffered a serious defeat, and the next 28 days will reveal whether 67 recommendations can become the only number that ultimately counts: 61 dependable votes.
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[ H/T WLT Report ]
