Republican Sen. Jon Husted holds a narrow forecast edge over former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s 2026 special Senate election.
A fresh Marist poll nevertheless puts Brown ahead among likely voters, leaving the November 3 contest firmly within reach of either party.
Election Time’s October 20 post lists Husted with a 53.8% probability of winning and Brown with 46.2%, along with a projected Republican margin of 0.7 points. The post attributes those figures to Pollsmax.
A 53.8% forecast probability does not mean Husted is projected to receive 53.8% of the vote. It means the model gives him slightly better than even odds of winning, while its projected vote margin remains exceptionally narrow.
BREAKING: Incumbent Jon Husted is still favored to win against Sherrod Brown in Ohio's special Senate election. Ohio – 2026… pic.twitter.com/YgFQkx1yKX
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) October 20, 2026
Ohio’s recent election history helps explain Husted’s path. He has served in the Senate since January 2025 after filling the seat JD Vance vacated, while Brown is seeking a return to the chamber after losing his previous seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024.
President Trump carried Ohio by more than 11 points that year, but Moreno’s 3.5-point victory showed that Brown remained considerably more competitive than the Democratic presidential ticket.
Marist has Brown at 48% and Husted at 44% among likely Ohio voters, a four-point Democratic advantage. The survey was conducted October 15 through October 18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, placing Brown’s lead within that range.
A poll measures the preferences reported by a sample during a defined period; a forecast estimates each candidate’s chance of eventually winning. Marist’s official October 20 post said its new polling favors Democrats while acknowledging that the Senate race remains close enough for Republicans to win.
That contrast gives both campaigns something useful. Husted can point to a model that narrowly favors him and a state that has moved decisively toward Republicans in presidential elections, while Brown can show voters a current likely-voter poll in which he leads the incumbent.
Husted is also making an economic case centered on Ohio manufacturing. In this video, he emphasizes attracting company headquarters, expanding domestic production and creating opportunities for Ohio workers.
The remaining campaign will determine whether Husted can turn Ohio’s Republican lean and his manufacturing message into enough support to overcome Brown’s current polling advantage. With the forecast margin at R+0.7 and Marist showing Brown up four, a relatively small movement among undecided or persuadable voters could decide who serves the balance of the Senate term.
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[ H/T WLT Report ]
